降息概率骤降提振美元，欧元卖压严重持续回落

　　PMI读数缓解担忧，降息概率骤降提振美元(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day59Individual points, closing up0.41%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20三线趋黏合，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to59-60一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注109.00Below support attention107.90Location.
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.AISMNon manufacturingPMI读数9月在跌至三年低位后，10Monthly rise54.7Higher than expected53.5。数据公布后，futures市场进一步推后对美联储降息时间的押注，预计至2021年初，美联储才完全有可能降息25个基点。值得注意的是，ISM所公布的非制造业PMI数据同IHS Markit公布的服务业PMI数据出现明显良莠背离。里奇蒙德联储巴尔金表示，美国经济健康，风险偏下行；不认为经济衰退迫在眉睫。只要消费者继续支出，美国经济将保持良好状态。
　　
欧元卖压严重，两日连阴初构Mtop(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar76Points, closing down0.49%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价击穿布林中轨下行；日线MA5,10,20三线趋黏合，MA5趋于下行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to47-48一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。日内首要关注M顶颈线位置1.1070一线得失。上方阻力关注中轨位置，下方支撑关注1.1000。
　　
Fundamentals:国际市场新闻社消息人士称，特朗普本应在11month13日前对美商务部的汽车调查结果做出回应，但预计特朗普将错过下周对欧盟进口汽车调查的截止日期。特朗普此前一直将关税作为威胁其他国家做出让步的手段。但眼下来看，美国政府对升级与欧洲的贸易冲突似乎“不感兴趣”。eurozone9monthPPIthe annual rateRecorded-1.2%Compared to previous values-0.8%进一步恶化。数据暗示欧元区将在未来数月中继续面临低通胀的困境。三菱日联：欧元下行风险有所缓解，但仍位于年初至今的低点1.1000-1.1200之间；欧元组作为有吸引力的融资货币的角色或将受抑，而当前低波动性状况正刺激套利交易的需求。
　　
强劲美元杀跌金价，金价连破两重支撑(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached285个点，连破1500、1490两重支撑，收跌1.48%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，金价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to43-44一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。当前可认为金价已跌至震荡区间下沿附近。上方阻力观察1517-20密集阻力区域，下方支撑关注1476-77frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收涨2.1%, closing on13.10； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.60%, closing on16.654。 The world's largest goldETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto11month6日增持1.18吨黄金，为连续五度减持后首次增持。市场评论认为，金市和股市两大市场存在相互竞争的关系，近期市场的乐观情绪再次占据上风，黄金和美股呈现分化走势。而当前推升美股的三大因素：贸易局势向好、美联储降息和好于预期的经济数据，存在较大变数，若有变动或造成市场风险情绪反转。
　　
　　
　　
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