亮眼非农未支撑美元，看涨情绪助力金价走高

　　非农数据远超预期，美元仍现六日连阴(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day44Individual points, closing up0.14%。市场风险偏好情绪浓重，美元指数六日连阴但美元兑日元仍收涨。日线BOLL(20)三轨收口明显，汇价自布林下轨位置抬升走高；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5趋于下行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to48-49一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走高。上方关注108.45Follow support below107.85。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A10月季调后非农就业人口新增12.8万人，远好于市场预期的8.9万人。机构评论认为，这表明劳动力市场很容易地消化了通用汽车罢工带来的影响。当月汽车制造业就业人数减少4.2万人，但其他行业的就业大大地弥补了这一空缺。10月劳动力参与率升至63.3%, for2013year8月以来的最高水平。失业率依然接近50年低位，使美国消费者有信心继续支出，推动经济发展。这份报告应该会巩固美联储在未来维持利率不变的决定。
　　
高盛预言英镑短期回调，英镑于1.30Lower consolidation(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达46Individual points, closing up0.01%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to68-69一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注1.3000位置，下方关注10日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:高盛更新对英镑公允价值评估。预计GBPUSD短期内将出现策略性回调，但其中期前景值得期待：无协议脱欧风险的消退令英镑不太可能再次下探前低；投资者的英镑资产仓位很轻，若无协议脱欧风险确实消失，有望吸引投资者回补空仓；与其他G10货币相比，英镑仍然略胜一筹。根据高盛动态平衡汇率（GSDEER）模型，英镑兑美元被低估约12%。野村证券：衍生品市场对英镑波动性的押注显示，英镑可能在12month12日英国大选时大幅上涨或下跌。option市场定价显示，英镑可能在当天出现1.5%-2%的波动。
　　
goldETF持续流出，金价逆势上行(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达128Individual points, closing up0.11%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to58-59Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1520位置，下方支撑关注布林中轨一线。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌6.96%, closing on12.30。金价前瞻指标巴里克黄金公司(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌2.02%, closing on17.01。上周五非农数据发布后，世界黄金协会（WGC）近日在一份报告中指出，在低利率环境下，投资者应该选择黄金作为避险资产，而非债券；在降低股市风险、实现投资组合多样化等方面，低利率环境可能使黄金比债券更有效；应考虑将黄金资产的配置增加1%to1.5%。
　　
　　
　　
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