ZFXShanhai Securities: Rise and fall! Gold price volatility intensifies!

Monday（3month30In the morning session of the Asian market, the US dollar index continued its upward trend and briefly rose0.17%to100.33, for3month16It has reached a new high in recent days and has also risen for five consecutive trading days. spot goodsgoldRising and falling, rising for the first time at the beginning of the trading session4514.42dollar/Ounces, currently falling back to4450dollar/Near ounces, the decline is close1%Despite safe haven buying providing support for gold prices, international oil prices continue to risecrude oilOnce jumped more than3%Set a new three week high103.38dollar/The barrel exacerbates inflation concerns, suppresses expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, and the US dollar index continues to rise, exerting pressure on gold prices.

1、 The double-edged sword facing gold

On Monday, international oil prices surged by over3%US crude oil touched103.38dollar/Barrel high point, Brent crude oil remains at110Above the level of the US dollar, there may even beoptionmarket forecast 4May reach by the end of the month150The US dollar has reached a historic high. The high prices of oil and commodities such as fertilizers quickly spread to the global economy, exacerbating inflation concerns.

The US market has strongly responded to this:3The monthly consumer confidence index has dropped to a three-month low, according to the Zhishang ExchangeFedWatchThe tool shows that the trader has completely ruled out2026The possibility of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the coming year, and even the probability of pricing a later rate hike. The overall yield of US Treasury bonds has risen,10The yield of one-year treasury bond bonds once rose7A new high since the beginning of the month,30Year approaching5%The US dollar index also strengthened due to the dual support of safe haven demand and expectations of interest rate hikes,3The month to date increase is expected to hit the best in nearly a year.

In this environment, gold, as a traditional safe haven asset, should have received strong support. However, the actual situation presents a complex tug of war: buying at a low price once pushed the gold price up sharply3%Spot gold is available3month28Rebound from a four month low in the past few days, reaching its highest point4554dollar/Around ounces, it closed up about last Friday2.6%to4495Around the US dollar. But on Monday（3month30In the morning session, it rose again and fell back to4450Near the US dollar, the decline is about1%The strengthening of the US dollar and rising inflation expectations have suppressed the prospect of interest rate cuts, significantly suppressing gold prices; At the same time, the risk aversion sentiment provides support, leading to fluctuations in the gold price trend.

2、 Renowned banks raise gold price forecast

Deutsche Bank sets year-end gold price target from4900The US dollar has been raised to5000The US dollar believes that the Federal Reserve is expected to restart interest rate cuts. However, in the short term, market sentiment is still influenced by both geopolitical and macro factors. However, any signs of prolonging the conflict could further amplify energy risks and inflationary pressures.

KitcoThe weekly gold survey shows that Wall Street sentiment is shifting towards equilibrium, with half expecting gold prices to rise in the coming week, and main street investors returning to a moderate bullish bias. However, there are divergent opinions among analysts: some believe that the uncertainty of war makes it difficult to judge trends, and that technical factors are intertwined with geopolitical events; Others point out that the decline in the stock market and the rise in the US dollar create a "toxic environment", and the safe haven status of gold may be limited in the short term. Only when the central bank clearly signals relaxation can it turn into a clear bullish trend.

3、 Today's Gold Technology Analysis

On the daily chart, gold is in the recovery stage of oversold rebound after the previous sharp decline. After a strong rebound last Friday, the bullish momentum weakened today and returned to oscillation.

Moving average system:5Day10The daily moving average has turned upwards, but20Day50The daily moving average remains bearish, exerting strong pressure on gold prices. Currently, prices are running above the short-term moving average and below the medium-term moving average, with a clear pattern of volatility.


Key interval: Core oscillation interval locked4400-4550dollar/Ounces, this range is a battleground for long and short positions.4400The US dollar is a strong daily support level, which is the low point and intensive trading area in the early stage. If it falls below, it will open a downward trend4350-4380USD space;4550The US dollar is a strong resistance level, which is a concentrated area for holding onto the market in the early stage. Breaking through it requires increasing volume and cooperation, otherwise it is easy to rise and fall back.

Morphological features: The daily chart shows a bottoming out and rebounding pattern, with a sharp drop at the beginning of the week4370After stabilizing, the US dollar rebounded in the second half of the week, and the short-term bottom gradually solidified, but no effective breakthrough signal has been formed yet.