MBG Markets：美联储夯实“预防式”降息，汇市现冰火两重天

　　
美联储鹰声大作，避险货币万马齐喑(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day57Points, closing down0.08%。三大避险货币美元、瑞郎、日元均大幅走弱，反观主流商品货币均现惊人上涨。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to60-61一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方关注109.35Follow support below108.40。
　　
Fundamentals:US Q3 ActualGDPInitial value of annualized quarterly rateRecorded1.9%，增速小幅高于预期，主要因消费者稳定支出以及出口获得反弹，使得有所恶化的商业信心得到抵消。今日凌晨，美联储宣布降息25个基点，并将超额准备金率（IOER）从1.80%Adjust to1.55%。在政策声明中，美联储删除了“采取适当行动”的承诺。随后新闻发布会上，鲍威尔强调，购买国库券纯粹是技术手段而非QE，只要经济前景符合美联储的预期，当前的货币政策立场将是合适的。鲍威尔言论中透露出一个信号，即美联储已经完成此轮降息。
　　
景气指数不及预期，欧元获得被动上行(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar75Individual points, closing up0.36%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to64-65一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注1.1180位置，下方关注布林中轨位置（汇价已连续三个交易日回踩布林中轨后企稳回升）。
　　
Fundamentals:eurozone10月经济景气指数录得100.8，10月工业景气指数录得-9.5，双双逊于市场预期。数据显示初工业领域的出现的消极情绪已经扩散至服务行业与消费者领域，这对欧元区经济增长而言是一个不利的迹象。德国工商总会：将2019GermanyGDP增速预期从5Of0.6%Down to0.4%；预计明年德国经济几乎不会出现改善，预计2020yearGDPThe growth rate is0.5%。分析表示，预计德国制造业放缓将蔓延至服务业，如果这种情况继续下去，可能会导致德国经济更严重的衰退。
　　
goldETF持续流出，金价逆势上行(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达155Individual points, closing up0.54%，昨日盘中金价一度承压，但后半夜持续走高，收复全部跌幅后创高。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5Tending towards a downward trend; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to48-49Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1505位置，下方支撑关注1487frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌6.59%, closing on12.33。金价前瞻指标巴里克黄金公司(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day1.67%, closing on17.05。 The world's largest goldETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto10month31Daily reduction of holdings1.76吨，为连续第四度减持。今晨美联储公布利率决议后，黄金短线挫近5美元一度下破1490美元关口，稍晚鲍威尔讲话后，黄金扩大跌幅逼近1480关口，随后走出V型走势重回1490Above the US dollar.COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract in Beijing Time02:34-02:37The trading volume within four minutes is12875Hand, the total value of the trading contract is close to20USD100mn
　　
　　
　　
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