英国脱欧关键投票延期，欧美央行官员意外“放鹰”

　　欧美央行官员意外“放鹰”，欧元涨势凶猛美元承压(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar56Individual points, closing up0.41%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价连续两个交易日于布林上轨上方极端超买位置运行，有较大的回调需求；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to68-69一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注1.1165Below support attention5日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:欧洲央行管委霍尔茨曼：在接下来的政策审查中，欧央行应降低其通胀目标，支持降至1.5%或更低。此言论支持欧元兑美元短线上扬10点。美联储卡普兰预测到2020年年底前只降息一次，并认为消费状态良好，零售销售数据受噪音影响。美联储卡什卡利：收益率曲线暗示美联储目前政策可能略为紧缩。美联储副主席克拉里达：美联储此前的扩表行为不会改变货币政策。购买国债的目的在于提高流动性，不能与危机时期的QE混为一谈。但克拉里达同时表达了全球经济增长预估持续遭到下调，通胀前景不明朗的担忧。

　　

脱欧协议关键投票延后，英镑高位盘整(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达125Individual points, closing up0.65%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to73-74一线运行，连续5个交易日于超买区间运行，有较大的技术性回调需求。上方关注1.3000位置，下方关注5日均线一线。
　　
Fundamentals:英国议会以322：306adoptLetwin修正案，使得新脱欧协议投票时间被推后。阻止无序脱欧的Benn法案即时启动，约翰逊必须按照该法案要求，向欧盟提出推迟10month31日的脱欧限期。当前欧盟已收到此申请，但仍未正式通过。据唐宁街消息人士称，英国政府将把对新版脱欧协议的投票推迟至本周二，若投票顺利通过，英国仍可能按时脱欧。约翰逊需从大约75名可能被说服的议员中争取到至少61票。机构普遍认为新脱欧协议冲关成功的可能性较小，若冲关失败，欧盟将把英国脱欧时间推迟至2020year2Month.

　　

市场风险偏好情绪升温，大摩建议做多澳日(AUD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:澳元兑日元上一交易日震幅达24Individual points, closing up0.3%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to65-66Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above74.90Below support attention73.00。
　　
Fundamentals:摩根士丹利认为，全球贸易风险的降低将显著修复投资市场的风险偏好，利多风险敏感型货币，并削弱避险货币。G10货币中，AUD的涨势最为猛烈；预计AUD不仅能够受益于风险情绪的好转，还与其主要贸易伙伴国经济增长前景密切相关。鉴于全球国债收益率和股市攀升，作为避险货币主力的JPY将走低。全球性国债收益率曲线陡峭化，同样利于日本央行增加国债的购买，以增加JPY流动性（但这一行为理论上将导致日元贬值）。

　 　

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