欧元遭野村策略师沽空，英镑隐含波动率骤升引警惕

　　工业产出数据利好，野村看空欧元至1.08(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar19Individual points, closing up0.05%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to46-47Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1100，下方支撑关注布林中轨支撑（此前汇价五度上探布林中轨才告破位）。
　　
Fundamentals:eurozone8月工业产出月率录得0.4%，显著优于市场预期0.3%及前值-0.4%。在经济前景不明朗的情况下，工厂对机械等设备投资增加，给欧元区经济前景带来了积极的信号.但可耐用和非耐用消费品的增速降低，表明制造商预计短期内销量仍会下滑。野村证券foreign exchange策略师称：欧元兑美元近期第一目标水平是1.08。原因在于欧洲央行的一揽子宽松计划可能有助于经济数据改善，但考虑到QE在零利率水平下的有效性，这个效果或许并不显著。欧元区仍需要偏低的货币走势来支持它疲惫的经济增速。

　　

  脱欧关键时期，英镑隐含波动率飙升(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达134Points, closing down0.06%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to66-67一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注如下图所示61.8%Callback position1.2705Follow below1.2506。
　　
Fundamentals:英国退协议面临的不确定性增加，使得英镑一周期隐含波动率升穿16%，为上周水平的两倍多，且接近今年的最高水平。据英国《每日电讯报》消息，北爱尔兰边境问题有望得到解决，英国脱欧协议似乎正在成形。各方当前对于欧盟与英国达成协议保持”谨慎乐观“的态度。摩根大通：无协议脱欧风险消除或推高英镑兑美元至1.3；但即使谈判达成退出协议，也将使英国经济遭受摩擦和干扰，这应该会限制英镑进一步走强。

　　

  市场恐慌情绪缓解，千五争夺战仍焦灼(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached134Individual points, closing up0.45%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to47-48Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1515-1517阻力密集区，下方支撑关注1472Location.
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌6.48%, closing on14.57。金价前瞻指标巴里克黄金公司(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day0.59%, closing on17.10. according toCFTC持仓报告，截止至9month25Solstice10month1日当周：投机者持有的黄金投机性净多头减少43451Hand contract, to268993手合约，表明投资者看多黄金的意愿降温。国际贸局势好转及英国无协议脱欧风险大幅回落，市场风险偏好显著改善，利空黄金；但同时美联储启动购债对黄金构成支撑。黄金基本面多空交织，市场情绪渐趋于谨慎。

　　

　　
　　
Risk Statement and Important Notes
交易外汇保证金和差价合约交易涉及高风险，未必适合所有投资者。阁下可能会在交易时遇到损失超过本金的情况。
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