PMI疲软避险需求升温，30亿大单砸盘振金价

　　英美PMI双双爆雷，英镑震荡收涨(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达148Individual points, closing up0.30%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to50-51一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注布林中轨位置，下方关注1.2200Integer level.
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A9monthISMNon manufacturingPMIRecorded52.6, creating2016year8月以来三年新低。荷兰国际银行在PMI数据公布后，下调2019年美国经济增速预期至1.3%，而此前预期是1.8%。2020year1月联邦基金利率futures合约的隐含收益率周四跌至1.435％。根据目前的有效利率1.85%计算，意味着市场预计到2019年底美联储将降息约42个基点。英国9Monthly service industryPMIRecorded49.5，逊于预期及前值。经济学家称，如此大规模的商业信心丧失，近十年来仅仅在2016年脱欧公投时刻见过；英国9月的经济活动下降可能更加不祥，这表明需求在持续性减弱，而不是遭遇突然冲击；英国面临经济衰退的可能性非常高。

　　

PMI数据持续萎靡，欧美角力暗含风险(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar58Individual points, closing up0.13%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小；日线RSI(14)to46-47Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1025Below support attention1.0900。
　　
Fundamentals:eurozone9Monthly service industryPMIFinal value report51.6，较初值下修。经济学家评论称，德国9月商业活动疲软程度创3年最低；欧元区9月经济出现停滞，调查结果显示这是自2013年中期以来最差的景象。欧洲央行管委雷恩称：当通胀预期在较长一段时间内受抑时，需要进行强烈回应，防止通胀被锚定在较低水平。WTO允许美国政府对欧洲征收75亿美元的商品关税。美国政府于周三迅速公布了征税的产品清单，其中包括对空客飞机征收10%的关税。欧盟强硬回应称，欧盟必将对此进行反击，而且已经准备好报复清单。

　　

  避险成市场主旋律，gold多头大举进攻(XAU/USD)
　　
　　Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达238Individual points, closing up0.55%, upper test1520位置。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，金价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5趋于走高，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to52-53一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注如下图所示趋势线位置（谨防测试趋势线不破后再度下行破前低），下方支撑关注布林中轨得失。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌6.78%, closing on19.12； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.63%, closing on17.26；全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto10month3日增持2.93吨黄金，终结此前连续两度减持，持仓量增至923.76Tons.COMEXThe most active gold futures contract is in Beijing time22:00-22:02三分钟内成交量为20516The total value of trading contracts exceeds30亿美元，现货黄金15分钟内直线拉升近20美元。英国脱欧陷入迟滞、欧美贸易摩擦升温都刺激了黄金的避险需求，美联储降息预期的升温也料将进一步推动黄金的上涨。
　　

　　

　　
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