MBG Markets：强劲零售未阻美元走弱，黑天鹅事件致两油暴涨

　　
零售数据强劲，美元延续跌势(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达42Points, closing down0.22%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin middle track tends to decline, and the exchange rate is close to the Bolin lower track; Daily lineMA5,10构死叉，MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to43一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注布林中轨位置，下方支撑关注前低位置97.95。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A8Monthly retail sales rate recorded0.4%，显著优于市场预期0.2%，前值由0.7%Upgraded to0.8%。机构评论称，零售数据文件表明消费者支出强劲，可能会持续对经济增速起到支撑作用；尽管8月核心零售销售增速温和，但7月份的强劲增长可能会保持经济学家对第三季度消费者支出健康增长的预期。摩根大通称，从8月份的数据报告中可以看到各种趋势通胀指标在走高，预计还未公布的其它8月份通胀指标也将保持这种上升趋势；不过，美联储青睐的潜在通胀指标仍可能低于目标水平，通胀上升不足以使美联储暂停宽松。
　　
European Central Bank“反”声渐起，欧元自低位抬升(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar53Individual points, closing up0.18%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to50-51一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于下行。日内收线关注下图所示AB段50%Callback bit1.1085位置得失。上方阻力关注1.1125Below support attention1.1050。
　　
Fundamentals:欧洲央行宣布于11month1日重启QE，但多位有影响力的央行官员发声反对，包括法国央行、德国、荷兰央行行长、奥地利和爱沙尼亚央行行长及数名欧央行决策层官员。欧央行前所未有的“内讧”帮助欧元于低位企稳回升。有观点认为，当前欧元区经济的症结并非流动性不足，也非企业和个人的融资成本问题，而是国际贸易低迷与制造业萎缩；故而欧洲央行开出的“放水”药方最多只能暂时镇痛，无助从根本上消除顽疾。
　　
黑天鹅事件突发，两油跳空高开(USOIL)
　　
Technical aspect:WTIcrude oilThe previous trading day's amplitude reached124Points, closing down0.44%，今日亚盘WTI原油跳空高开逾10%，随后自高位回落。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线稍趋走平，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to52-53一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。油价当前走出突发黑天鹅事件后的极端行情，但后续若无利多资讯，有望在周初形成对跳口缺口的回补。上方阻力看60.90Below support attention58.75。
　　
Fundamentals:周末，沙特国家石油公司（阿美石油公司）的两处设施遭无人机袭击，致使沙特原油供应每日减少570万桶，约占沙特石油产量的50%及全球原油产量的5%。沙特官员称将于周一恢复沙特原油产量至正常水平。但消息人士指出，沙特要全面恢复石油供应能力需要“数周”，而非“数日”。美国国务卿蓬佩奥称，伊朗应对无人机袭击沙特东部石油资源丰富的地区的重要设施负责。事件令美、布两油在亚盘早期高开高走，随后避险和投机情绪降温，油价有所回落。
　　
　　
　　
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