MBG Markets：双重利空袭击英镑，疲软PMI数据拖累欧元

　　
　　
数据政局双利空，英镑再现深跌(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达139Points, closing down0.78%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)三轨趋于走平，汇价隔夜下破布林中轨下行，中轨告破后出现明显的技术性惯性下跌；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5,10The double track tends to decline; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFF线于稍低于0轴下方的位置下穿DEA构死叉，阳柱翻阴；日线RSI(14)to36-37一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注布林中轨位置，下方关注1.2010前低平台位置。
　　
Fundamentals:英国前大法官兼司法大臣高克称：如果议会不采取行动，无协议脱欧概率将达到95%；批评政府没有同欧盟进行适当的谈判；预测约翰逊的策略将在这周失败，然后将举行大选。稍晚，英国首相发言人：首相将以极大的决心来确保达成脱欧协议；但再次强调，无论如何，英国都将在10month31日离开欧盟。英国工党领袖科尔宾称：本周将是阻止无协议脱欧的最后机会。英国8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIRecorded47.4，较初值大幅下修，创2012year7The lowest since the beginning of the month.
　　
manufacturingPMI数据疲软，欧元阴跌不断(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar51Points, closing down0.23%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)三轨下行趋于构建整齐下行通道线，汇价持续贴近布林下轨；日线MA5,10双线构筑死叉，汇价持续承压于MA5下方走低，表明多头抵抗意志较弱，未能形成有效反弹；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能持续扩大；日线RSI(14)以较大运行斜率跌破30超卖区间。上方阻力关注前低Bspot1.1025，下方支撑关注下图所示AB段行情27%外部拓展位1.0920。
　　
Fundamentals:Italy8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIRecorded48.7，稍优于前值读数，但仍为连续第11Months at50荣枯线下方，德国8Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value recorded43.5，受累于新订单继续大幅下跌和产出再次大幅减少，制造业PMI读数接近7年低位。据“欧洲央行OIS”：欧洲央行9Monthly interest rate reduction10The probability of a basis point is47.6%Interest rate reduction20The probability of a basis point is52.4%； reach10Monthly interest rate reduction10The probability of a basis point is30.1%Interest rate reduction20The probability of a basis point is50.6%。市场对欧央行降息力度的押注有升温趋势。
　　
华尔街看空情绪回归，慎待gold季节性回调(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达119Points, closing down0.17%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，金价当前回踩布林中轨位置，若企稳此位置，有望进一步探高；日线MA5,10双线黏合趋于死叉；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFF、DEA双线自0轴上方高位回落，阴柱势能持续增大；日线RSI(14)to58一线运行，运行斜率较小稍趋下行。上方关注如下图所示AB段行情-50.0%外部拓展位置1544-45，下方关注前低平台位置1492。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收涨6.15%, closing on18.98； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day0.52%, closing on19.38。Kitcoto8month30日发布的每周黄金调查显示，华尔街对黄金的情绪发生转变，在参与调查的15位市场专业人士中，6人或40%认为本周黄金将会上涨；亦有6人或40%认为金价将会下跌。参与在线调查的普通投资者有63%认为本周黄金仍将上涨。更长期的角度看，黄金在9月的表现不算糟糕，但在过去十年，9月是黄金表现第二弱的月份。黄金于前两月累积巨大涨幅的前提下，需谨慎其在9月这一弱势月份做高位回调。
　　
　　
　　
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