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兴业投资:欧元急跌破1.1000 重磅事件前市场或谨慎

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兴业投资:欧元急跌破1.1000 重磅事件前市场或谨慎

2019year9month2day

Fundamentals

上周五纽约盘中,欧元毫无预警全盘下跌,兑美元下破1.1000Gateway, for2017year5月以来首次。消息称,这是因为外媒一则“乌龙”消息所致,国际市场新闻社(MNI)报道称,欧央行执委劳腾施莱格认为需要重启QE。但随后有外媒更正为不需要重启QE。不过,过去一个多月,欧元在1.1000上方企稳,却一直未能真正反弹,彰显了欧元的弱势,这主要是受欧洲经济增长放缓、英国脱欧以及意大利政局不稳的拖累,而上周五急跌不排除是月底重新平衡投资组合加剧了现有的倾向。欧元大跌引发美国总统特朗普“嘴炮”,抨击欧元“疯跌”,美元过强不利于出口,但美元基本没受影响,美元指数直逼99.00关口,刷新2017year5月以来最高水平。不过,从除欧元外非美资产的反映来看,英镑和日元小幅整理,gold白银高位震荡,美元强势并非内因推动,短期或难有大涨。今日美国劳动节假期,市场波动可能受影响,且在本周美国非农及美联储主席鲍威尔压轴讲话前,谨慎情绪料主导。

Technical aspect

euro/dollar

日图大幅下跌下破1.1000,均线空头排列,随机指标超卖但尚未修正,仍偏空。4小时图大跌后反弹遭到下行的均线打压,仍偏弱势。小时图连续大幅下跌,若不能收复1.1000将维持弱势。日内建议1.1100下方做空,先看上周五低点1.0960Near.

Support position:1.0960 1.0945 1.0920

Resistance level:1.1000 1.1025 1.1050

pound/dollar

日图继续收阴,料20日均线提供的支持有限。4小时图在此前大跌后的长下影线上方整理,冲高回落暗示走势仍偏空。小时图冲高测试1.2225破败回落,略偏弱势。日内建议1.2180Short below, break below1.2135follow-up.

Support position:1.2135 1.2100 1.2080

Resistance level:1.2180 1.2200 1.2220

dollar/Japanese yen

Daily chart on106.70-106.95阻力区域受阻小幅收阴,随机指标倾向转头下行。4Hour chart on106.70下方受阻回落,若跌破106.00短线将有望指向105.00一线。小时图震荡走低,关注短期支持106.00。日内建议106.30Short below, break below106.00follow-up.

Support position: 106.00 105.80 105.60

Resistance level: 106.30 106.45 106.70

gold

日图高位整理收阴,但仍未跌破上行的20日均线,随机指标熊背离,警惕短线回调风险。4小时图测试1550一线遇阻回落,短线仍偏弱,但需要跌破1515才能打开进一步下行空间。小时图在1530下方弱势整理,关注整理区间底部支持。日内建议1530一线做空,跌破1515follow-up.

Support position:1515 1509 1493

Resistance level:1530 1536 1545

silver

日图上行乏力,随机指标从超买区域回落,短线有望下行。4小时图高位整理,短线或有进一步回调空间。小时图上行在前期高点18.63下方受阻回落,但需要下破MA200才有望扩大跌幅。日内建议18.45Short below, break below18.20follow-up.

Support position:18.20 18.15 18.05

Resistance level:18.45 18.55 18.64
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