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兴业投资:美元美股齐涨 中美贸易前景为关键

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兴业投资:美元美股齐涨 中美贸易前景为关键
2019year8month30day
Fundamentals
隔夜公布的欧美经济数据普遍不如人意,德国失业率连续第四个月上升,加上欧央行候任行长拉加德表示,欧央行尚未触及利率区间底部,暗示进一步降息空间,打压欧元扩大跌幅,进一步逼近8month1日低点,间接推升美元,导致市场忽略了美国经济增长放缓的事实。美国二季度GDP季率从2.1%向下修正至2.0%,符合市场预期。此外,中美双方就贸易谈判前景互相释放善意,也推动美元进一步走高,打压gold等避险资产。中方表示反对贸易战继续升级,而特朗普则表示,双方定于周四(today)举行不同级别的贸易谈判。日内将继续关注中美贸易相关消息,不排除仍有反复,进而左右市场情绪。
Technical aspect
euro/dollar
日图继续收阴,但1.1030一线存在支持区域,可能限制跌幅。4小时图震荡下行,在关键支持录得锤子线,且随机指标牛背离,暗示进一步下行空间可能有限。小时图反弹乏力,短线仍偏弱。日内建议1.1060Short below and below1.1025附近寻求企稳反手做多机会。
Support position:1.1040 1.1025 1.1000
Resistance level:1.1060 1.1080 1.1110
pound/dollar
Daily chart onMA50受阻连续回落,随机指标倾向下行,或进一步走低。4小时图小幅走弱,但仍未跌破长下影线低点,只有下破该点才能打开进一步下行空间。小时图冲高回落,略偏弱势。日内建议1.2200Short below, break below1.2155follow-up.
Support position:1.2155 1.2100 1.2080
Resistance level:1.2200 1.2220 1.2250
dollar/Japanese yen
日图小幅反弹但仍受到106.70-106.95阻力区域压制,不破仍将维持低位整理格局。4小时图温和走高,短线可能遇阻回落。小时图在前期高点106.70受阻回落,关注能否突破该档。日内建议106.70上方遇阻做空,紧设止损,下破106.30跟进,并寻求106.00附近企稳反手做多机会。
Support position: 106.30 106.00 105.60
Resistance level: 106.70 106.95 107.10
gold
日图高位整理收阴,但仍未跌破上行的均线,随机指标熊背离,警惕短线回调风险。4小时图测试1550一线遇阻发出反转信号,短线可能回调。小时图测试1550未果震荡下行,短线走势转为偏空。日内1532下方做多,下破1520follow-up.
Support position:1520 1515 1493
Resistance level:1532 1536 1545
silver
日图冲高后收录螺旋桨阴线,随机指标发出修正信号。4小时图进一步上涨在18.60上方遇阻回落,短线或有进一步回调空间。小时图自高位快速回落,暂时在18.00上方寻得支持,若下破该档,将有望扩大跌幅。日内建议18.30Short below, break below18.00follow-up.
Support position:18.00 17.90 17.75
Resistance level:18.30 18.40 18.50
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