MBG Markets：政府议会掐架英镑遭殃，商品货币遭市场大举沽空

　　
英国政府议会掐架，英镑承压回落(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达132Points, closing down0.51%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5趋于下行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to47-48一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于下行。上方阻力关注1.2300Below support attention1.2150。
　　
Fundamentals:据英国卫报报道，英国政府申请将议会休会时间延长到10month14日，并已获枢密院通过。这或意味着反对派议员将来不及阻止无协议脱欧。此前有消息称，英国派同意共同寻求阻止无协议脱欧，可能在英国议会夏季休会结束后，通过法律手段或者发起不信任投票来达成。投资者预计英国央行降息的可能性增加，利率futures显示英央行在行长卡尼明年1月结束任期之前降息25基点的可能性超过90%。
　　
意大利政局趋稳，欧元仍低位承压(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar25Points, closing down0.04%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于下行，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFLine on0轴下方低位黏合DEA，势能柱不显；日线RSI(14)to39-40Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above23.6%Callback position1.1117，下方支撑建议关注1.1025。
　　
Fundamentals:意大利反建制党派五星运动党和中左翼民主党就组建一个由孔特担任总理的新政府一事达成共识。意大利政治动荡局势有望现积极成功，提前大选或可完全避免。受此消息影响，意大利两年期国债收益率降至2018year5月来低位。意大利十年期国债收益率跌至纪录新低，首次跌至1%下方。花旗银行认为，近期“内忧外患”的局面令欧元多头几乎喘不过气来。幸而一旦新的意大利政府联盟成功建立，欧元将享有更大的上行空间。
　　
市场大举看空，加元偏弱运行(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达34Individual points, closing up0.16%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价于中轨上方运行，此前小幅回探至中轨下方后再度企稳回升，表明多头态度坚决；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to57-58一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走高。上方阻力1.3345, lower support1.3225。
　　
Fundamentals:Currently,CFTC非商业账户已连续第二周削减CAD多仓；资管经理连续第四周削减CAD多仓（此前多仓规模一度达到2016year10月以来最高）；情绪指标当前处于看跌区间。近期，市场对三大商品货币的做空情绪持续高涨。澳元、纽元的综合仓位信息亦暗示空方卖压较强。凯投宏观称，数据显示加拿大通胀稳定在2%，薪资增速年率超4%；但加拿大小型开放经济体的地位意味着该国不太可能安然度过全球经济放缓；因此，仍预计加央行可能在今年秋季降息。
　　
　　
　　
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