MBG Markets：鲍威尔发言挫伤美指，避险情绪爆发提振金价

　　
鲍威尔发言偏鸽，美元指数大跌(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达92Points, closing down0.55%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于走平，汇价直接击穿布林中轨下行；日线MA5,10,20仍构多周期金叉共振，但MA5Tending towards a downward trend; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阳柱翻阴；日线RSI(14)to48-49一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。技术指标暗示短期回调需求。日内多头若反扑，关注布林中轨得失，下方关注97.60-97.50密集阻力区域。
　　
Fundamentals:上周五，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表讲话称，将采取合适的行动以维持经济扩张；经济处于有利位置，但面临重大的挑战；消费者支出支撑温和的经济增速，但低通胀是个大问题。鲍威尔未就货币政策提出明确的态度，但讲话中没有提到“中周期调整”这一鹰派字眼。市场认为鲍威尔此次发言略显鸽派。鲍威尔发言后，据CMEFederal Reserve Observation9Monthly interest rate reduction25The probability of a basis point from95.8%Ascend to99.6%；降息50The probability of a basis point from0%Ascend to0.4%。
　　
德国三季度衰退或不可避，经济威胁欧元前景(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar101Individual points, closing up0.55%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价上攻至布林中轨一线，但中轨展现出较强的阻力效应；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to50-51一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。指标层面来看，汇价仍承压中轨一线，RSI指标于荣枯线附近争夺，反弹不可谓不强，但欠缺关键反转信号。日内关注布林中轨得失。
　　
Fundamentals:哈佛肯尼迪学院Mossavar-Rahmani商务与政府研究中心：德国经济几乎不可能避免在第三季度出现衰退。但德国对经济增长的关注度低于其对生活水平和失业的关注度，只要保持失业率在低水平，德国推出财政刺激一揽子计划的希望可能会落空，并预计德国经济衰退不会对美国经济造成巨大冲击。据报道，欧洲官员起草了一份长达173页的“雄心勃勃”的计划，旨在反击美国总统特朗普对欧洲挑起的贸易争端。今年7月，美欧达成贸易“休战”一年的协议到期，美欧贸易争端再次被搬上台面。
　　
多重事件齐袭，避险引爆金价(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached367Individual points, closing up1.94%，今日亚盘时段跳空高开140点，随后自高点稍有回落。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价贴近布林上轨位置；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to69-70一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。如下图所示AB段行情的-50%外部拓展位置1544已被触及，上方关注-61.8%外部拓展位置1565，下方关注布林中轨支撑。
　　
Fundamentals:中美经贸摩擦出现升级，在中国反制性措施后，美国总统特朗普于当地时间23日要求美国公司撤出中国，在美国国内进行生产。此外，全球央行年会上，主要央行传出鸽声、脱欧仍存巨大不确定性、贸易摩擦升温、经济前景黯淡，让市场风险厌恶情绪不断增强，金价录得大涨。全球最大的黄金ETFFund: United StatesSPDR Gold Trustto8month23Day24日分别购入2.93、4.99吨黄金，净持仓量增至859.83Tons.
　　
　　
　　
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