MBG Markets：美联储纪要夯实鸽派预期，强劲通胀提振加元士气

　　
美联储纪要夯实鸽派预期，美元延续高位盘整(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达20Individual points, closing up0.13%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，短期均线系统显示美元指数多头势能未完全耗尽，在美元指数跌破5日均线前，始终释放较强烈的看涨意愿；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to61-62一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。上方阻力关注99.00关口，下方支撑关注布林中轨得失。
　　
Fundamentals:今日凌晨，美联储发布7月货币政策会议纪要。纪要显示，有多名委员支持在7Monthly interest rate reduction50个基点。而在6月底的时候，卡什卡利是美联储唯一一个公开要求降息50个基点的美联储官员。同时，本份纪要中多达15次提及有效下线，有效下限是负利率政策的核心代号；这表明正有越来越多的美联储官员开始考虑美联储采取更强力的利率调降行动的可能。但美联储决策层在同时，一致希望避免给外界留下处在进一步降息路径上的印象。这一点限制了市场的降息预期交易，也限制了隔夜的资产价格波幅。
　　
Canada7月通胀回暖，加元多头士气大振(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达67Points, closing down0.23%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，布林三轨构筑整齐上行通道线，汇价持续于中轨上方运行，但布林三轨信赖区间有效，成涨幅限制因素；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5趋于下行，但近期短期均线系统失真明显；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to56-57一线运行。上方关注如下图所示AB段行情的61.8%回调位置（也是本轮反弹的三顶平台位置附近），下方支撑关注布林中轨得失，跌破则可看向1.3180frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:数据面上，加拿大7monthCPIMonthly rate recorded0.5%，远优于市场预期的0.2%及前值-0.2%。加拿大统计局指出，由于服务业指数增速放缓被商品指数增长所抵消，加拿大7月通胀年率维持在2%的央行目标水平。当前，机构普遍预期加央行将在9Month and10月政策会议上释放更多鸽派信号，以抵消全球贸易冲突带来的影响。但7月通胀数据的回暖稍稍缓解了这一行动的紧迫性（尤其在近期关键的零售数据、劳工市场数据均意外走软后）。7月通胀数据发布后，美元兑加元短线骤跌50余点。
　　
日内政经事件密集，欧元迎来大考(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:欧元兑美元一交易日震幅达27Points, closing down0.06%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to38-39一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。短期止跌建议以连续两日收于5日均线上方为信号，下方支撑关注前低1.1025。
　　
Fundamentals:受英国脱欧不确定性及意大利政局紊乱所致，巴克莱经济学家将欧元区2020年经济增长预期从先前预测的1%Down to0.6%。据摩根士丹利发布的仓位综合报告显示，欧元当前被市场极度看衰；相比仓位数据，交易员看衰情绪的高涨更为显眼（表明后市很可能出现空仓规模的增长）。据“欧洲央行OIS”：欧洲央行9Monthly interest rate reduction10Bps to-0.5%的概率为49.7%，维持利率在-0.4%The constant probability is50.3%。日内，法、德、欧元区8monthPMI初值数据将发布；晚间，欧洲央行会议纪要将发布。日内政经事件密集，欧元今日迎来大考。
　　
　　
　　
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