MBG Markets：美元一枝独秀杀跌非美，财政松绑预期难挽弱势欧元

　　
约翰逊致信欧盟，英镑展现韧性(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达68Points, closing down0.26%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价隔夜下破布林中轨下行；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to39-40一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。英镑时隔近两个月首度测试布林中轨位置，日内重点关注布林中轨附近的多空争夺。上方阻力关注1.2210，下方支撑关注前低1.2015。
　　
Fundamentals:英国首相约翰逊19日致信欧盟，正式提出新“脱欧”协议谈判条件。这是约翰逊成为英国首相近一个月后首次就“脱欧”事宜主动联系欧盟方面。约翰逊称新“脱欧”协议必须取消北爱尔兰边界“担保协议”，呼吁英欧双方寻找一种新的替代方案。英国首相发言人：英国已大幅加强了无协议脱欧的规划，未来几周将公布更多关于脱欧准备的消息。英国工党财务负责人：英国工党领袖科尔宾将召集其他，于下周讨论阻止无协议脱欧的策略。
　　
欧元跌跌不休，财政松绑预期难挽颓势(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar38Points, closing down0.09%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to37-38一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。短期止跌建议以连续两日收于5日均线上方为信号，下方支撑关注1.1025前低位置。
　　
Fundamentals:eurozone7monthCPI月率终值报-0.5%，年率终值报1%，双双逊于市场预期及初值。机构评论称，欧元区7月通胀弱于最初报告的水平，给欧洲央行决策者在9月考虑更多刺激措施增添了压力。摩根士丹利发布报告称，从futures情绪指标显示，市场越发看衰欧元；此前媒体有关德国政府将采取财政扩张的报道令EURUSD短线企稳；但要想交易财政扩张，最佳选择是在正式财政扩张时做多EUR，而非押注预期。日内，意大利总理孔特将发表讲话，意大利参议院将审议对总理孔特的不信任动议，建议重点关注。
　　
风险偏好情绪升温，gold跌破千五关口(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达198Points, closing down0.89%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，金价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to59-60一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力看下图所示AB段行情-50%外部拓展位1545，下方支撑关注布林中轨位置。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌8.61%, closing on16.88； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌1.69%, closing on18.08。在德国有可能采取财政扩张提振经济的消息传出后，全球股市普涨。市场对主要经济体可能陷入衰退的担忧缓解，这提振了投资者的风险偏好，黄金的避险吸引力大幅削弱，引发金价下跌。法巴银行分析称，未来几个月，对黄金走势起到推动作用的一股力量就是美元，可能需要美联储今年再降息两次，才能支撑黄金价格保持在1500dollar/盎司上方。
　　
　　
　　
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