MBG Markets：强劲零售助推美指，强大买需提振金价

　　
强劲零售力敌鸽声，美元指数延续升势(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达42Individual points, closing up0.21%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，暗含新趋势形成动能，布林中轨趋于上行，汇价逐步走高贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5趋于走高，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阴柱翻阳；日线RSI(14)to61-62Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above1.1250位置，下方支撑关注1.1125前低。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A7月零售销售月率报0.7%，远超市场预期0.3%；7月核心零售销售月率报1%，显著优于预期0.4%。 U.S.A7月零售销售月率大幅上扬，表明尽管汽车相关购买有所减少，消费者仍在购买其他产品，这可以缓解金融市场对经济可能进入衰退的担忧。美联储卡什卡利称，美联储将会讨论如何对待利率，个人倾向于进一步降息；需要给予经济更多的刺激，更多的支持。美联储布拉德称，会关注金融市场和即将公布的经济数据数据的转变，包括较低的以市场为基础的通胀预期。但鉴于卡什卡利、布拉德均为联储内旗帜鲜明的鸽派，其鸽声为对美元构成明显打压。
　　
政经双重利好，英镑低位反弹(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达100Individual points, closing up0.26%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5趋于走高，汇价暂承压MA10以下；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFLine on0轴下方极端低位（2016年脱欧公投以来最低水平）上穿DEA构金叉，阴柱翻阳；日线RSI(14)to34-35一线运行，脱离超卖趋于回归常态区间。从此前汇价表现来看，短期多空分水岭为10日均线位置。下方关注1.2000-1.2015一线，上方阻力建议关注10日均线得失。
　　
Fundamentals:britain7月季调后零售销售月率录得0.2%，虽较前值降温，但显著优于市场预期-0.2%。分析称，英国网上消费增速为三年来最强劲，表明在脱欧最后期限到来之际，消费仍将继续支撑经济。市场避险模式延续，英国30年期国债收益率隔夜跌至纪录新低，创2018year12月以来的最大单日跌幅。据CME“英国央行观察”：英国央行9Monthly interest rate maintained at0.75%The constant probability is97.0%Interest rate reduction25Bps to0.5%的概率为3.0%；11Monthly interest rate maintained at0.75%The constant probability is60.1%Interest rate reduction25Bps to0.5%的概率为38.7%Interest rate reduction50Bps to0.25%的概率为1.1%。市场已基本摒除英国央行在年内加息的可能。
　　
多头情绪坚定，gold涨势不休(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达192Individual points, closing up0.63%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价持续贴近上轨附近运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to70-71一线运行，于超买区域运行已持续约两周时间。上方阻力看下图所示AB段行情-50%外部拓展位1545Below support attention10日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收跌4.16%, closing on21.18； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)The stock price closed up on the previous trading day1.13%, closing on18.39。投资者的焦虑给全球最大黄金ETF带来大量资金。中信证券报告认为，全球货币超发、美国主权信用风险显现和现有货币体系中美元地位下滑使得目前货币体系的信任值下降，黄金储备吸引力提升。避险、储值双属性为黄金带来大量市场买需。SDPRgoldETF总资产目前大约为410亿美元，为自2016year9月以来最高，持仓量有望连续第三周上涨；对冲基金对黄金futuresandoption的看涨程度达到三年之最。
　　
　　
　　
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