Industrial Investment Crude Oil Weekly Review: High Demand Concerns, Oil Prices Reached a New Half Year Low Last Week

Industrial Investmentcrude oilWeekly review: High demand concerns, oil prices hit a new six-month low last week
2019year8month12day
The escalation of trade tensions between China and the United States has exacerbated concerns about a slowdown in global economic growth, with the US Energy Information Administration and the International Energy Agency reducing global crude oil demand, as well as the USEIAThe increase in crude oil inventory and the rebound in production have dragged down international oil prices significantly to1The low point since the beginning of the month. However, major oil producing countries have pledged to maintain a balanced crude oil marketOPECFurther production cuts are expected to heat up, and the number of US oil wells has decreased for six consecutive weeks. In addition, geopolitical risks and expectations of global central bank interest rate cuts provide support for oil prices, driving them to bottom out and rebound. As of closing, United StatesWTI 9Monthly crude oilfuturesAccumulated decline throughout the week1.99%Report collection54.24dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week55.59dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to50.52dollar/Bucket. Brent10Monthly crude oil futures have accumulated a decline throughout the week4.88%Report collection58.32dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week61.53dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to55.85dollar/Bucket.
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The short-term monthly energy outlook report released last Tuesday will2019Expected decrease in global crude oil demand growth rate in710000 barrels/Solstice10010000 barrels/Day, but will2020Expected increase in global crude oil demand growth rate in310000 barrels/Solstice14310000 barrels/Day. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency(IEA)Last Friday, in its latest monthly report, it stated that due to the increasingly obvious signs of economic slowdown and the shadow cast by trade tensions between China and the United States on the market outlook, the global crude oil demand growth rate for this year and the next two years will be lowered respectively1010000 barrels/Rihe510000 barrels/Solstice11010000 barrels/Rihe13010000 barrels/Day.
The escalation of the Sino US trade dispute has been a catalyst for the recent decline in oil prices. The increasingly fierce rhetoric between China and the United States is exacerbating concerns that this conflict will become a long-term headwind for global growth. In order to combat Chinese companies perceived as security threats, the Trump administration ordered US government agencies from the Pentagon to NASA to stop purchasing Huawei equipment. The US government has also issued a regulation prohibiting the commercial activities of telecommunications equipment companies Huawei and ZTE, surveillance camera manufacturers Hikvision and Dahua, as well as Hytera, which provides two-way radios to the federal government. After Trump announced that he would9month1Daily additional3000100 million Chinese imported goods are subject to additional taxation10%After tariffs, China decided to stop purchasing American agricultural products. There are also reports that Chinese oil tankers are carrying Iranian crude oil into Chinese ports, which has raised concerns that China will increasingly bypass US sanctions against Iran. As trade conflicts escalate and people are increasingly concerned that the Chinese government may retaliate by imposing tariffs on US crude oil imports, global market demand may be suppressed as a result.
The raw oil storage data released by major US agencies last week was mixed, but the number of US oil wells continued to decline. American Petroleum Institute(API)The latest data shows that as of8month2During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased34310000 barrels to4.396Billion barrels, analysts expect a decrease331.310000 barrels;Cushing inventory reduction16010000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory110Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect a decrease116.710000 barrels;Refined oil inventory increase120Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect a decrease16.7Ten thousand barrels. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of8month2During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased238.510000 barrels to4.389Billion barrels, continuous7Growth for the first time after weekly decline, market expectations decrease284.510000 barrels;Reduced inventory of Cushing crude oil150.4Ten thousand barrels, continuous5Weekly Record Decline;Refined oil inventory increase152.9Ten thousand barrels, market expectations increase48.210000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory443.7Ten thousand barrels, creating1month18The largest increase since the current week, with market expectations decreasing72.210000 barrels;Increased domestic crude oil production in the United States1010000 barrels to123010000 barrels/Day. Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(Baker Hughes)The latest data shows that as of8month9During the current week, the number of active oil drilling wells in the United States decreased for six consecutive weeks, decreasing6Seat to764Seat, touching2018Lowest since the first week of the year;Reduction in total number of active oil and gas drilling operations8Seat to934seat;Reduction in active drilling of natural gas2Seat to169Seat.
As the oil price drops to7Month low,OPECThe oil ministers hope to stabilize oil prices from now on, and they are feeling the pain caused by the sharp drop in oil prices. Saudi Arabia has called other oil producing countries to discuss possible policy responses. Saudi Arabia8Month and9The daily export volume of crude oil in the month will be controlled at700Less than ten thousand barrels.OPECThe major member states promise to make every effort next year to maintain balance in the oil market. Analysts from Daoming Securities explained, "Due to the Joint Ministerial Supervisory Committee(JMMC)Scheduled9In mid month in Abu Dhabi, we suspect that,OPECThe signal sent will help alleviate market concerns about the oversupply of crude oil. At the same time, we note that the crude oil market may continue to tighten asOPEC 7The production in the month is still limited, rather thanOPECThe growth rate of production is lower than many people's expectations
The political tension between the United States, North Korea, and South Korea is also escalating, which may affect market sentiment and provide some support for oil prices. North Korea's official media reported that North Korean leader Kim Jong un inspected the recent missile launches and commented, "We have launched a new type of tactical missile. The military operation has issued warnings to the United States and South Korea regarding military exercises." North Korea has conducted multiple missile tests in the past month, and last Saturday it launched a new type of tactical missile along its eastern coast(Xianxing District)The latest missile has been launched in the sea. This launch is aimed at testing the capabilities of North Korea's self-developed new short-range missile, as well as protesting against South Korea and the United States. The South Korean Joint Chiefs of Staff pointed out that "North Korea is highly likely to launch more missiles because the North Korean military is conducting its own summer exercises
Last week, the three major central banks of New Zealand, India, and Thailand unexpectedly lowered interest rates, alerting investors to the negative impact of the Sino US trade conflict on the global economic outlook. The previous week, the Federal Reserve lowered its policy interest rate25A basis point and opened the door for further interest rate cuts. The interest rate reduction measures taken by central banks around the world to stimulate economic growth provide certain support for oil prices.
Looking ahead to this week, oil traders will continue to pay attention toAPIandEIAIn addition to crude oil inventory data, it is also important to pay attention to Tuesday'sOPECThe monthly crude oil report focuses on the implementation of the production reduction agreement. In terms of economic data, noteworthy US data include:7Monthly consumer price index(CPI)、7Monthly retail sales8Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index8The New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month7Monthly industrial production8Initial value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the month. Inflation data will be the focus of market attention. Due to the delay in achieving and stabilizing inflation above the inflation target, as well as the tense international trade situation, the US economy is facing more downside risks. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell previously stated that low inflation may be more persistent. If inflation data continues to remain sluggish, it is expected to increase the pressure on the Federal Reserve to further lower interest rates, posing downward pressure on the US dollar. In addition,7Monthly retail sales data should also be worth paying attention to,HYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)Analysts expect overall and core retail sales to increase month on month, respectively0.3%and0.4%The retail control group showed a month on month increase0.3%. Due to the proportion of US consumptionGDPshare70%Therefore, if retail data performs poorly, it will exacerbate concerns about a slowdown in the US economy and weigh on the US dollar. In addition, the development of international trade situation remains an important risk that investors need to pay attention to.
From a technical perspective, the Poly Plus channel on the weekly chart of the US oil company has slightly expanded, and the oil price has stabilized after testing and falling off track,14and20The weekly moving average is bearish, with a slow and random attempt to rise. Last week, Meiyou bottomed out and rebounded, with slight improvement in technical indicators,KThe line chart shows a long shadow and a dark line, and it is expected that oil prices will fluctuate and rise this week. Supports are located separately53.00、51.90、50.50The resistance in order is55.60、57.00、58.40。
During the oil distribution week, the Poly Plus channel spread, and the oil price once penetrated the lower track,14and20The weekly moving average is bearish, with slow moving random indicators approaching the oversold zone. Oil distribution continued to suffer setbacks last week, with no signs of improvement in technical indicators, butKThe line graph shows a long shadow with a negative line, and it is expected that oil prices will rebound in shock this week. Supports are located separately57.00、55.80、54.00The resistance in order is60.00、61.50、62.90。