MBG Markets：疲软数据挫伤英镑，强势日元延续上行

　　
GDP数据疲软，英镑阴跌不休(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达124Points, closing down0.97%，在约连续一周的横盘震荡后，再次下砸跌破震荡区间，空头势能十足。日线BOLL(20)三轨齐趋下行构筑整齐下行通道线；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，汇价持续承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，DIFF、DEABilinear to0轴下方低位持续走低；日线RSI(14)to25-26一线运行，已连续两周时间处于超卖区间。上方阻力关注10日均线得失，下方支撑关注1.2000Integer level.
　　
Fundamentals:UK as of6Three months in a monthGDPMonthly rate recorded-0.2%，英国第二季度GDPAnnual rate initial value recorded1.2%，双双逊于市场预期及前值，表明英国经济较今年一季度显著降温。英国6月制造业产出月率、6月工业产出月率均报负增长，相较5month1.4%、1.2%的增长水平明显转向负面。其中，制造业产出月率为自2012年以来首次出现季度性萎缩。机构分析称，英国2019年第一季度的增长是个意外；由于企业为了3month29日脱欧而做好了供给储备，但随着脱欧被推迟到10month31日甚至有进一步延长的可能，第二季度商业活动被库存数据拖累，从而导致自金融危机以来的最大制造业产出下降和进口大幅下降。
　　
GDP读数优于预期，日元延续涨势(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day81Points, closing down0.22%，连续三个交易日走低；今日亚盘续跌有望对105.50的前低位置构成破位。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续贴近布林下轨位置；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于下行，汇价持续承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column is relatively large, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to30-31一线运行，贴近超卖区间。短期止跌建议以连续两日收于5日均线上方为信号，下方支撑关注今年1月时极端行情所打出的104.75Low position.
　　
Fundamentals:日本第二季度实际GDPRecorded initial value of annualized quarterly rate1.8%，远优于市场预期的0.4%。日本二季度GDP私人消费季率、二季度GDP企业支出季率均优于前值。日本央行周五宣布，提高部分短期债券购买规模，下调3-5年期债券购买量。美银美林认为，这暗示该行已经注意到日元走强带来的风险，以通过推低短端债券收益率的方式试图抵消日元升值压力。据CFTC持仓报告，截止至7month31Solstice8month6日当周，投机者持有的日元投机性净多头增加14779Hand contract, to10561手合约，表明投资者看多日元的意愿升温。
　　
gold高位稍做回撤，看涨情绪仍强烈(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达133Points, closing down0.48%, falling below1500大关并终结此前6日连阳，但全周仍创6month21日当周以来最大周度涨幅。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于上行，金价自布林上轨上方极端超买位置回归至信赖区间；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，今日亚盘，金价有回测MA5支撑的意图；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to70一线运行，有望在本周周初回归常态区间。上方阻力关注1310前高，下方支撑关注10日均线位置。
　　
Fundamentals:Kitcoto8month9日发布的每周黄金调查显示，市场仍坚定看涨黄金。在针对专业人士的调查中，75%认为本周黄金将会上涨；参与在线调查的普通投资者中65%认为本周黄金仍看涨。全球最大黄金ETF--SPDRGoldTrust上周持仓增加1.8%，今年以来增加7.3%，表明市场对黄金看涨热情高涨。高盛认为，如果市场对全球经济增长的担忧继续，基金经理们会在投资组合里大量配置黄金ETF，金价将被进一步推高，未来6个月金价有望涨至1600dollar/Ounce level.
　　
　　
　　
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