Sincerely open:5.29黄金与美元齐飞晚评黄金操作建议

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But it contains traces of game theory


Following the trace of operation


Find the direction of the trend


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　　周二，美元一改盘初颓势加快上行，英镑、欧元回吐盘初涨幅转而下跌，再次刷新年内低位。意大利政局和欧元区的担忧打击投资者人气，意大利债券再度遭受疯狂抛售。欧盘时候，futuresgold短线上扬近6美元，攻破1300大关一路狂飙。


　　周一，因将士阵亡纪念日，市场波动很小。这是预料之中的事，三个因素主导：


　　1，市场休市清淡。2，行情整体震荡，波幅就小。3，大部分周一行情，都波动小。


　　对历史行情的总结，是判断未来行情的关键依据。一定要记住，定义行情未来的走势，是交易的灵魂，如果对方向的定义不到位，就很容易左右摇摆。这要比定义错还严重，一波行情中，如果定义错了，只是用合理的方法调仓出局或者止损即可。但如果对方向定义飘忽不定，涨了认为是多，跌了认为是空，总是跟着行情走，形成被动交易。被动交易是非常尴尬了，很容易出现高多低空的现状。往往就是因为对行情没有一点的把握性。


　　年度以来大多数时候黄金的价格波幅都不是很大，这也是导致了今年黄金交易的难度比较大，很多时候都是处于鸡肋行情阶段，长时间的在区间内震荡格局影响了市场交易者的积极性，恶性循环导致了价格波动越来越小。这样的时候只能耐心等待，黄金在走出了前期1310-60的区间内震荡后继续在1300附近进行震荡，上周一度自低位反抽测试到阻力1306-08附近还是遭遇了压制。


　　晚间如何操作？


　　美元和黄金都具有避险属性，同时以美元计价的黄金两者本身又存在负相关关系，大多情况下都是反向走势。但是偶尔也有同向表现，今日的同向无外界消息刺激，市场也没给出解读。


　　但是诚至的观点，黄金关注最后一道防线，1307-1308的压力，四小时下降通道压力附近，上周五高点附近，同时也是日线级别四个多月高位整理的水平支撑位。所以不破此位我认为黄金还是保持弱势回落，而突破了我们再做思路调整。


　　黄金晚盘依托1307-1308为防守，不破我认为欧盘和美元的同涨，黄金属于虚破，还是要回到二者的负相关上，诚至建议还是先尝试做空，不要去激进调整思路跟多；


　　crude oil探底回升，日内区间整理思路不变，小时线收口我们晚上继续重点关注67-67.4区域压力，下方66-65.6Support.

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US crude oil: fixed margin400USD in one hand/1000Bucket, Fluctuation0.02USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Silver: Fixed margin400USD in one hand/5000Ounces, fluctuating0.010USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss20USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


US Gold: Estimated Margin400USD in one hand/100Ounces, fluctuating0.2USD return, fluctuating0.1USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Natural gas: Fixed margin400USD in one hand/10000mmBtuFluctuation0.·002USD return, fluctuating0.001USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.
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