Ma Huasheng:1.26早评黄金为何暴跌，黄金原油操作建议及解套

  goldMessage surface:


Thursday(1month25day)Europe-美时段，欧洲央行维稳利率，同时削减QE至每月300亿欧元，德拉基讲话乐观但称年内难加息，欧元暴涨130点后涨幅收窄；稍早美国财长再度重申了自己不担心美元下跌的立场，美元指数再创逾三年新低88.42，但美指的疲弱未能进一步提振金价，现货黄金刷新日低1342.26dollar/ounce.


Technical analysis of gold:


黄金行情目前从1365The nearby high level has fallen back to1342On the front line, many friends are still confused. Should we continue to go long or short? Go long, but the magnitude of the decline in gold is somewhat large, and the indicators are weak, which may continue to decline; Short selling, but the market has already fallen so much, will it continue to fall? What if it rebounds again after entering the market? I believe the above is the current psychological activity of most investment friends.


从日线图上来看，黄金近两日的上涨力度是有目共睹的，连续两天收出了实体部分较长，而上下引线非常短的阳柱，按照常理来分析，这是上涨力度非常强的一个表现，所以我们这两日顺势操作，是完全没有问题的，但是今日，在白盘中，黄金依旧是按照我们的规律来进行，晚间由于特朗普的《美元强势轮》演讲结束后，美指继而走强，黄金突然反水，跳水近22美金，打破了这个格局，导致今日收出大阴，我们任然需要观察，晚间行情收盘的位置，如若收盘在1348一线上方，那么黄金多头任然是成立的，如果收盘在1348一线的下方，明日我们的做单就需要小心谨慎，待行情分明再做操作。


从四小时线上分析，K线呈现于阶梯式上涨的节奏，直至触及上方高点1365.9一线后，开始走出下跌，连阴后收出一根倒纺锤阴线，下引线较长，证明上方阻力1366-1368一线的阻力位任然存在，这个时候不能有效破位，就需要整理进行，但是由于消息面的影响，跳水近22美金打破这个整理格局，我们还是按照日线上的分析，重点关注收盘位置的价格位于1348一线的情况。面对行情，华胜分析师个人建议围绕区间1340-1360去做，重点以回调做多为主！


Golden Day Operation Suggestions:


1Suggest callback1340Long nearby, stop loss4dollar. Look at the target1355Near.

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crude oilMessage surface:


Reuters columnist Tarn（FlorenceTan）It is pointed out that with the rapid rise of Brent crude oil in recent times, the price difference between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil has widened. According to Thomson Reuters data, last year11In the month, the price difference between Brent crude and Dubai crude oil widened to over3dollar/Bucket, for2016year6For the first time in a month, this has closed the 'arbitrage window'. Generally speaking, if the price difference between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil narrows, it will stimulate Asian refineries to increase their purchases of Brent crude oil, leading to an acceleration of the excess crude oil from Europe being transported to Asia. Tarn said:“2017In the middle of the year, the price difference between Brent crude oil and Dubai crude oil narrowed to less than1dollar/Barrels have provided arbitrage opportunities for Asian refineries, but the situation has changed so far.


Technical analysis of crude oil:


The daily crude oil line closed with a bearish candlestick, forming a bullish trend at the bottomKLine form, affected by the Asian market64Shake, European market falls back63.68Stop falling and rebound, the US market is affected64.3*Shake, explore at night64.68Blocked callback64.2Rebound, reaching a new high in the early stage64.88In the early hours of the morningAPIData is greater than negative, crude oil falls back64.5Close nearby.4On the hourly chart, since breaking the downward trend line, the market has gradually risen, clearly changing the short-term bearish trend of crude oil. As long as the current short-term bullish structure of crude oil remains unchanged, the market will continue to rise. In terms of indicators, the Bollinger Bands are opening up and developing, and the current price is running below the upper Bollinger Bands. The moving averages of each cycle are developing in a bullish arrangement, while the short-term indicators are maintaining a downward trendKThe development of the line has deviated,4小时来整体偏多发展。综合来看：操作上华胜个人建议回调做多为主，短线下方关注64.3-64.5Frontline support, attention from above65.5-66.0一线压力。破位顺势跟进即可。


Suggestions for crude oil operation:


Suggest callback64.5Long nearby, stop loss0.4.Target View65.5.


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