Crossing the Sea 2017year10month26day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

26

day

Focus this week:
10month26day(Thursday)
U.S.A9Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A9Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index
U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

10month27day(Friday)
Season 3 in the United StatesGDPInitial value of month on month annual rate
美国第三季最终销售初值
美国第三季消费者支出初值
Season 3 in the United StatesGDP平减指数初值
US Season 3 CorePCE物价指数初值
Season 3 in the United StatesPCE物价指数初值
U.S.A10Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month



Important economic data released today:  
17：00 eurozone9monthM3Supply of goods(Annual growth rate)‧forecast+5.0%‧Previous value+5.0%
17：00 eurozone9monthM3For household loans‧forecast+2.8%‧Previous value+2.7%
18：00 britain10Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Retail sales difference‧Predict positive15‧Front value positive42
19：45 Europe10Monthly central bank interest rate decision(再融资利率)‧forecast0.00%‧Previous value0.00%
19：45 Europe10Monthly central bank interest rate decision(Deposit interest rate)‧Predict negative0.40%‧Negative front value0.40%
20：30 U.S.A9月建筑许可年率修订‧Previous value121.510000 households
20：30 U.S.A9月建筑许可月率修订‧Previous value-4.5%
20：30 U.S.A9Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance‧Previous value633A deficit of one billion yuan
20：30 U.S.A9Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate‧Previous value+0.9%
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(10month21Day and Week)‧forecast23.5ten thousand people‧Previous value22.2ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(10month21Day and Week)‧Previous value24.825ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(10month14Day and Week)‧forecast189.0ten thousand people‧Previous value188.8ten thousand people
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index‧Previous value106.3
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value-2.6%
23：00 U.S.A10月堪萨斯联储制造业指数‧Front value positive22
23：00 U.S.A10月堪萨斯联储综合指数‧Front value positive17



News of the Week
Richmond Federal Reserve Bank10The monthly comprehensive manufacturing index is positive12
U.S.A10monthMARKITComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)The initial value is55.7
U.S.A10monthMARKITCIPS services PMI (PMI)The initial value is55.9
U.S.A10monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is54.5Touching1The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A9月新屋销售较前月急升18.9%At an annual rate of66.7万户的近十年高位
U.S.A9月耐久财订单较前月增长2.2%



10month25day
LondongoldMorning order price:1273.00
London gold afternoon fixing price:1275.00


Today's Introduction
美国众议院周四将就预算提案进行投票

美国众议院周四将就一项预算提案进行投票，由于一些共和党人誓言投下反对票以保护一项受欢迎的减税优惠政策，所以投票结果将难以预测。这项预算计划对美国总统特朗普的大规模减税计划至关重要。反对阵营抵制取消州和地方所得税扣减的提议。取消这项减税优惠将影响到纽约、新泽西和加州等高税州的中产阶层选民。这是共和党人士拟定的减税计划中的一项。面对民主党的反对，这项预算提案对于共和党能否使税改议案在国会通过至关重要；该预算提案已获参议院批准。

U.S.A9月资本财订单增幅超预期，付运连续第八个月增长，表明企业支出强劲，这应会扶助缓解飓风给经济造成的影响。另一项数据显示，上月新屋销售猛增至近10年高位。第三季企业设备投资强劲增长，以及楼市增长加速的迹象，支持了美国联邦储备理事会(FED/Federal Reserve)Will be on12月再度升息的预期。数据公布后，美国公债价格回落，指针10年期公债收益率攀升至七个月高位。美国股市小幅走低。



XAU London Gold - 金价走势承压

伦敦黄金方面，投资者为下任美国联邦储备理事会(FED)主席提前出炉的可能性做准备，如果任命立场较强硬的候选人接任美联储主席一职，将提振美元。技术图表所见，4Tianhe9天平均线呈现利淡交叉，短期金价或仍处于承压。当前关键位置为100天平均线，上周的三日低位亦刚好止步于此区之上，目前100The balance moving average is at1275水平，需警剔若明确跌破此区，金价或会展开新一轮下跌。下延支持预估在1266To the extent that1257，关键料为250Balance moving average1243美元。阻力则会回看1286and1300美元关口，较大阻力料为1316USD.

London Gold10month26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1275 – 1286
Resistance level:1296 – 1316
Support bit:1266 – 1257

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
10month2Day -859.33ton
10month3Day -854.30ton
10month5Day -851.06ton
10month6Day -854.02ton
10month9Day -858.45ton
10month10Day -858.45ton
10month11Day -858.45ton
10month12Day -858.45ton
10month13Day -853.13ton
10month16Day -853.13ton
10month17Day -853.13ton
10month18Day -853.13ton
10month19Day -853.13ton
10month20Day -853.13ton
10month23Day -853.13ton
10month24Day -853.13ton
10month25Day -853.13ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价横盘待变

伦敦白银方面，近月白银处于横盘走势，并依循于100天平均线获得支撑，目前100The balance moving average is located at16.83美元，若然跌破此区，银价或会开展跌势，以黄金比率计算，50%and61.8%的回调为16.53and16.14美元，较大支持可参考15.70。上方阻力料为17.20and17.50美元，下一级看至18.00USD.

London Silver10month26day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.80 – 17.20
Resistance level:17.50 – 18.00
Support bit:16.60 – 16.30

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
10month9Day - 10167.69ton
10month10Day - 10167.69ton
10month11Day - 10132.44ton
10month12Day - 10132.44ton
10month13Day - 10132.44ton
10month16Day - 10023.77ton
10month17Day - 10023.77ton
10month18Day - 10023.77ton
10month19Day - 9994.39ton
10month20Day - 9994.39ton
10month23Day - 9962.09ton
10month24Day - 9962.09ton
10month25Day - 9962.09ton




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)