Crossing the Sea 2017year10month23day(foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

23

day

EUR euro - 美元上扬，“特朗普通胀”押注再起

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数自超买区域回落，上周四欧元升高至1.1880，但受着50天平均线所制肘，上月底欧元的短暂反扑亦是受限于此指针，目前50The balance moving average is at1.1845，若短期仍然无法跨过此区，料欧元将继续有回吐压力。倘若以自六月低位1.1117至九月高位1.2092Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%The level of feedback is1.1720，进一步扩展50%and61.8%的调整幅度则会看至1.1610and1.1490水平。估计中期重要支撑则指向1.13水平，此区为今年五月下旬至六月的横盘区间顶部位置。至于向上较大阻力则会关注1.20Gateway.

Focus:
10month23day(one): Eurozone10月消费者信心初值
10month24day(two): France10Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧MarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Italy9Monthly trade balance with non EU countries‧eurozone10monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
10month25day(three): Germany10monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index‧Italy8Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales
10month26day(four): Germany11monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧Italy10Monthly Business Confidence Index‧Consumer confidence index‧eurozone9monthM3Supply of goods(Annual growth rate)‧M3For household loans‧Europe10Monthly central bank interest rate decision(再融资利率)‧Central bank interest rate determination(Deposit interest rate)
10month27day(five): France10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1850 – 1.2000
support 1.1720 – 1.1610 – 1.1490 – 1.1300*



JPY yen - 日股创下1961年来最长连涨走势

技术图表所见，在此前两周，美元兑日圆多次上探113.30，但均是无功而返，同时相对强弱指标及随机指数已升见至超买区域，需慎防若短期汇价亦未可冲破近在咫尺的113.30阻力，则会酝酿着较大的回吐压力。若以近月的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回吐水平将会看至111and110.30Expand to61.8%To achieve109.60。反之，若美元兑日圆终可冲破近期顶部位置，进一步上试目标可留意114.50水平，较大阻力参考今年初高位118.60。

Focus:
10month24day(two): Japan10Month Day Meridian/MarkitmanufacturingPMI
10month26day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
10month27day(five): Japan9Monthly National OverallCPI‧Japan10Overall Tokyo regionCPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 113.30* – 114.50 – 118.60
support 111.00 – 110.30 – 109.60



GBP pound - 围绕英国央行升息前景的疑虑拖累英镑

技术图表所见，随着英镑兑美元回挫，带动RSI及随机指数亦呈现下跌，但当前较大考验将是位于1.31的上升趋向线，后市若跌破此区，将见英镑续现调整压力，延伸目标将指向1.30From the gateway to8Month low1.2770。至于上方阻力则回看上周限制着英镑升幅的25Balance moving average, currently located at1.3335；较大阻力则预估在1.3420Horizontal.

Focus:
10month23day(one): UK10monthCBITotal industrial order difference
10month25day(three): UK Season 3GDPinitial value‧britain9monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans
10month26day(four): UK10monthCBIRetail sales difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3250 – 1.3300 – 1.3420
support 1.3130 – 1.3000* – 1.2770



CHF Swiss franc - 突破关口瑞郎延续涨势

技术图表所见，预计美元兑瑞郎下方支持先会瞩目于0.9540and0.95，关键则料为0.94水平，过去两个月已曾考验这个关口，至今趟亦暂见止步于此。至于向上需留意0.98关口，若后市汇价突破此区，则见延续近月涨势；较大阻力则会指向250Balance moving average0.9880To the extent that1.00Gateway.

Focus:
10month25day(three)UBS Group(UBS)Switzerland9Monthly consumption indicators
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9800 – 0.9880 – 1.0000
support 0.9540 – 0.9500 – 0.9400*



AUD AUD - 数据支撑澳元

As seen in the technical chart,10天平均线跌破25天平均线，澳元兑美元料续呈下调压力，若果以5month9Daily low0.7329至上月高位0.8125Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%的回调幅度会看至0.7820and0.7730，扩大幅度至61.8%Will reach0.7630；关键支撑可留意另一首上升趋向线位置0.7520水平。至于向上阻力可先参考0.7890and25Balance moving average0.7940，下一级则瞩目于0.80Gateway.

Focus:
10month25day(three): Australia Season 3CPI‧Central BankCPIweighted median ‧CPItrimmed mean
10month26day(four)Q3 export price quarterly rate in Australia‧Seasonal import price rate
10month27day(five): Australia Season 3PPI

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7890 – 0.7950 – 0.8000
support 0.7800 – 0.7730 – 0.7630 – 0.7520



NZD New Zealand dollars - 工党执掌政权，纽元重陷跌势

纽元兑美元周四之急挫，全数回吐了之前一周多的累计涨幅，并带动相对强弱指标及随机指数双双下滑，反映着纽元兑美元正重回弱势。值得留意的是，由2015year8Monthly low0.62延伸至今的上升趋向线位于0.6980，若后市纽元跌破此区，或见跌势将更为猛烈，下一级支持位预估为200Monthly average line0.6885To the extent that0.68水平。另一方面，上方阻力则参考200Balance moving average0.7160and0.72Horizontal.

Focus:
10month26day(four): New Zealand9Monthly imports‧Export‧trade balance‧by9Annual trade balance of the month

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7160 – 0.7200
support 0.6980 – 0.6885 – 0.6800



CAD Cad - 升息预期弱化，加元续陷弱势

美元兑加元走势，近日正探试着50天平均线阻力1.2450，需留意后市若明确突破此区，将见美元兑加元仍延续着反扑动力。同时，10天平均线已上破25天平均线形成gold交叉，预示美元中期走势仍偏强。上方阻力会回看1.26and1.2780，下一级留意100Balance moving average1.28水平。预估下方支持为25Balance moving average1.2320and1.21水平，关键则会参考9Low at the beginning of the month1.2094。

Focus:
10month23day(one): Canada8Monthly wholesale trade
10month25day(three)Bank of Canada interest rate decision

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2450 – 1.2600 – 1.2780 – 1.2820
support 1.2320 – 1.2100 – 1.2094




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)