Crossing the Sea 2017year10month10day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

10

day

Focus this week:
10month10day(Tuesday)
United States9monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index

10month11day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index  
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index   
U.S.A8monthJOLTS职位空缺数

10month12day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

10month13day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly federal budget
U.S.A9monthCPI‧coreCPI
美国每周平均实质所得月率
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A8月企业库存月率
U.S.A10Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A10月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学预期指数初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学一年通胀预期初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学五年通胀预期初值



Important economic data released today:   
18：00United States9月独立企业联盟(NFIB)Small Business Confidence Index‧Previous value105.3
20：15Canada9Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast21.0010000 households‧Previous value22.3210000 households
20：30Canada8Monthly building permit rate‧forecast-1.0%‧Previous value-3.5%



10month9day
LondongoldMorning order price:1282.15
London gold afternoon fixing price:1278.75


Today's Introduction
俄罗斯外长拉夫罗夫周一同美国国务卿蒂勒森通电话时称，朝鲜半岛紧张局势升级是不可接受的。俄罗斯和中国周一均呼吁在朝鲜问题上保持克制，美国总统特朗普周六表示，对付朝鲜“只有一个办法能奏效”，暗示他心里想的是采取军事行动。



XAU London Gold -朝鲜局势支撑金价反弹

金价继续反弹，地缘政治紧张局势和美元走软提供支撑，但对于美国联邦储备理事会(FED)今年再次升息的预期遏制了金价的上涨动能。美国总统特朗普可能针对朝鲜采取什么行动存在不确定性，在市场中维持着一定程度的避险情绪，正在暂时支撑金价。

伦敦黄金方面，金价自九月以来的跌势形成一下降趋向线，现形成一阻力于1285水平，后市需突破此区，才见初步回稳迹象；下一级关键则见于25Balance moving average1305水平，在此轮跌势中，金价的两度反扑亦是受制此技术指标。支持位方面，由去年12month15Daily low1122.35USD to9month8Daily high1357.54美元的累计涨幅计算， 50%的回吐水平会看至1240USD, extended to61.8%Will reach1212USD.

London Gold10month10day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1281 –1293
Resistance level:1303–1318
Support bit:1271–1261

SPDR GoldTrustGold holdings:
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton
9month18Day -843.96ton
9month19Day -846.03ton
9month20Day -846.03ton
9month21Day -852.24ton
9month25Day -856.08ton
9month26Day -862.58ton
9month27Day -864.65ton
9month28Day -864.65ton
10month2Day -859.33ton
10month3Day -854.30ton
10month5Day -851.06ton
10month6Day -854.02ton
10month9Day -858.45ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year9month8day)

Global:33421.4ton
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1729.4ton
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver -银价低位整理

伦敦白银方面，在此轮下跌走势中亦形成了一下降趋向线，目前位于16.83美元，银价需冲破此区才见近期弱势得以缓和；预计延伸阻力可至17.20and17.50美元。下方支持方面，若果以黄金比率计算，50%and61.8%的回调为16.53and16.14美元。较大支持可参考15.70。

London Silver10month10day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.80 –17.20
Resistance level:17.40–17.90
Support bit:16.60–16.40

iSharesSilver TrustSilver holdings:
9month18Day - 10141.26ton
9month19Day - 10106.00ton
9month20Day - 10106.00ton
9month21Day - 10106.00ton
9month25Day - 10163.29ton
9month26Day - 10163.29ton
9month27Day - 10163.29ton
9month28Day - 10163.29ton
10month2Day - 10163.29ton
10month3Day - 10158.88ton
10month5Day - 10129.51ton
10month6Day - 10129.51ton
10month9Day - 10167.69ton



EUR euro -欧洲央行执委劳滕施莱格评论协助欧元反弹

欧元周二升至一周高位，隔夜欧洲央行一名官员的鹰派评论，促使投资人加码仓位，强化看好欧元区经济展望维持强劲的押注。欧元今年以来的涨势，在近日有所减弱，因政治疑虑升高，令欧元兑美元在上个月下跌逾3%。欧元兑美元周二涨至1.1789美元，触及10month2日以来的最高位。欧洲央行执委劳滕施莱格(SabineLautenschlaeger)在隔夜表示，欧洲央行应从明年开始减少资产购买。德国数据表现强劲也提振欧元人气。周一公布的数据显示，德国8月工业生产好于预期，创出逾六年来的最大月度增幅。

技术图表所见，欧元兑美元在上月先后跌破25Days and50天平均线支撑，纵然其后曾作出反扑，但却受制于50天平均线。同时，10Sky shattering25天平均线形成利淡交叉，均示意着欧元中短期前景依然向淡。倘若以自六月低位1.1117至九月高位1.2092Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%The level of feedback is1.1720，进一步扩展50%and61.8%的调整幅度则会看至1.1610and1.1490水平。估计中期重要支撑则指向1.13水平，此区为今年五月下旬至六月的横盘区间顶部位置。向上阻力则会回看50Days and25天平均线的目前水平1.1845and1.1870The next level will focus on1.20Gateway.

Focus:
10month12day(four): France9monthHICPFinal value‧eurozone8Monthly industrial production
10month13day(five): Germany9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧Italy9monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value

Related news
France8Monthly industrial production has declined compared to the previous month0.3%
Germany8月经季节调整进口较前月增加1.2%
Germany8The current account surplus of menstruation is178100 million euros
Germany8月未经季节调整出口较上年同期上升7.2%Imports increased compared to the same period last year8.5%
Germany8月出口按月成长3.1%，贸易顺差为216100 million euros
Italy8月工业生产较前月跳增1.2%远高于预期的增长0.1%，为连续第四个月环比成长

欧洲央行执委劳滕施莱格：央行应逐步结束资产购买      

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1845 –1.1885 –1.2000
support1.1720 –1.1610 –1.1490 –1.1300*



JPY yen -持稳，关注朝鲜动向

美元兑日圆周二基本持平，市场谨防可能的朝鲜挑衅行动。上周五在强劲美国薪资数据提振下，曾涨至近三个月高位113.440日圆，但之后又因朝鲜相关担忧而回落。美元上周稍晚受到打击，因报导称朝鲜在准备进行远程导弹试验。外界担心在周二朝鲜庆祝建党节之前的几天可能进行某种形式的挑衅。

美元兑日圆方面，本周涨势呈现停滞，然而日本选举前的不确定性则压制着日圆走势；日本将在10month22日举行选举，东京都知事小池百合子筹组新党，对首相安倍晋三构成挑战。技术图表所见，过去一周多以来，汇价三度上探113.30，但均是无功而返，同时RSI及随机指数正自超买区域回落，因此，需慎防若短期汇价亦未可冲破近在咫尺的113.30阻力，则会酝酿着较大的回吐压力。若以近月的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回吐水平将会看至111and110.30Expand to61.8%To achieve109.60。反之，若美元兑日圆终可冲破近期顶部位置，进一步上试目标可留意114.50水平，较大阻力参考今年初高位118.60。

Focus:
10month11day(three): Japan8月核心机械订单
10month12day(four): Japan9月银行贷款年率‧国内企业物价指数
10month13day(five): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Related news
黑田东彦誓言维持量化宽松政策，预计通胀加速上升

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance113.30* –114.50 –118.60
support111.00 –110.30 –109.60



GBP pound -政治不确定性压制英镑

英镑上周创下一年来最大周线跌幅后，周一反弹，此前英国劳动成本年增幅被上修，巩固了英国升息的预期，且英国首相特雷莎梅承诺将化解领导权的挑战威胁。英国国家统计局(ONS)周一表示，先前错误低估了劳动市场成本增幅。ONS周一表示，第二季单位劳动成本的年增幅为2.4%，并非上周五所公布的1.6%。ONS表示，原始计算过程发生错误。该数据令英国央行将进行逾十年来首次升息的可能性上升。文翠珊梅周末暗示，可能考虑改组内阁，以重建权威地位，令外界怀疑外交大臣约翰逊是否可能职位不保。

As seen in the technical chart,RSI及随机指数仍处于下行，MACD跌破讯号线，均示意英镑兑美元仍倾向于维持走低。若以过去三个月的累计涨幅计算，50%的回调水平为1.3120Expand to61.8%Then it is1.30关口。较大支撑则会参考8Month low1.2770. The estimated resistance above is1.33and1.3420。

Focus:
10month10day(two): UK9monthBRC同店零售销售年率‧britain8月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡
10month12day(four): UK9monthRICSPrice difference

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3300 –1.3420
support1.3120 –1.3000*–1.2770



CHF Swiss franc -再探0.98Gateway

技术图表所见，预计美元兑瑞郎下方支持先会瞩目于0.9540and0.95，关键则料为0.94水平，过去两个月已曾考验这个关口，至今趟亦暂见止步于此。至于向上需留意0.98关口，若后市汇价突破此区，则见延续近月涨势；较大阻力则会指向250Balance moving average0.9880To the extent that1.00Gateway.

Related news
Switzerland9月经调节失业率为3.1%
Switzerland9月未经调节失业率为3.0%

Focus:
10month13day(five)Switzerland9Monthly Producer/Import prices

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9800 –0.9880 –1.0000
support0.9540 –0.9500 –0.9400*



AUD AUD -美元一枝独秀，商品货币承压

As seen in the technical chart,10天平均线跌破25天平均线，澳元兑美元料续呈下调压力，若果以5month9Daily low0.7329至上月高位0.8125Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%的回调幅度会看至0.7820and0.7730，扩大幅度至61.8%Will reach0.7630；关键支撑可留意另一首上升趋向线位置0.7520水平。至于向上阻力可先参考0.7890and25Balance moving average0.7940，下一级则瞩目于0.80Gateway.

Related news:
NAB: Australia9月企业现况指数持稳在正14

Focus:
10month11day(three): Australia10Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
10month12day(four): Australia8月房屋融资月率‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7890 –0.7950 –0.8000
support0.7800 –0.7730 –0.7630 –0.7520



NZD New Zealand dollars -政局不确定性打压纽元

纽元周二在近四个月低位附近徘徊，因外界担心该国反 对党--工党有很大的机会组建执政联盟，此前最终计票显示，该国本次大选结果对工党更为有利。纽元兑美元周一触及5月底以来的低位0.7052美元不远。周末公布的最终计票结果显示，新西兰执政的国家党对中左翼工党-绿党联盟的优势缩窄。工党和绿党现在有54个席位，这使得他们获得了更大的谈判能力。国家党有56个席位，规模较小的保守党派新西兰第一党拥有九个席位--因而处在一个关键位置。占据议会多数需达到61个席位。新西兰第一党党首WinstonPeters正与国家党和工党领袖进行会谈，料将在本周稍后宣布与谁结盟。

图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均呈下行，反映着纽元正陷弱势发展。纽元9At the beginning of the month200天平均线获见支撑，目前处于0.7155，将视为关键，目前已见初步跌破此区，若汇价下周仍维持此区下，料整体上纽元将延续弱势。倘若以五月低位0.6818至七月高位0.7557的累积升幅计算，61.8%的回吐水平会看至0.71。而据顶部与颈线的相距幅度357点计算，下延的技术目标则可至0.6843。另一方面，上方阻力先回看50Balance moving average0.7270，关键阻力则指向0.75Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7285 –0.7500
support0.7155* –0.7100 –0.6840



CAD Cad -升息预期弱化，加元续陷弱势


美元兑加元走势，近日正探试着50天平均线阻力1.2450，需留意后市若明确突破此区，将见美元兑加元仍延续着反扑动力。同时，10天平均线已上破25天平均线形成黄金交叉，预示美元中期走势仍偏强。上方阻力会回看1.26and1.2780，下一级留意100Balance moving average1.28水平。预估下方支持为25Balance moving average1.2320and1.21水平，关键则会参考9Low at the beginning of the month1.2094。

Focus:
10month10day(two): Canada9Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada8Monthly building permit rate
10month12day(four): Canada8Monthly rate of new housing price index   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2450–1.2600 –1.2780 –1.2820
support1.2320 –1.2100 –1.2094



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)