Crossing the Sea 2017year10month9 day(Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

9

day

Focus this week:
10month9day(Monday)
U.S.A9Monthly employment trend index

10month10day(Tuesday)
United States9monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index

10month11day(Wednesday)
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index
Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index  
U.S.A8monthJOLTS职位空缺数

10month12day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A9Monthly final demandPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A9Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

10month13day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly federal budget
U.S.A9monthCPI‧coreCPI
美国每周平均实质所得月率
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A9Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A8月企业库存月率
U.S.A10Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A10月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学预期指数初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学一年通胀预期初值
U.S.A10月密歇根大学五年通胀预期初值



Important economic data released today:  
09：45 China9月财新服务业采购经理人指数(PMI)
14：00 Germany8Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+0.6%‧Front value remains unchanged
16：30 eurozone10monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Front value positive28.2
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value134.6



10month6day
LondongoldMorning order price:1268.20
London gold afternoon fixing price:1261.80



XAU London Gold - 美元再行走高， 金价维持承压

美元上周继续走稳，因投资者愈发认为利率市场价格低估了美国未来数月升息的可能性。美国经济数据强劲、可能推出减税措施、以及在美联储现任主席耶伦去职后，市场预计总统将任命一位鹰派人士任职美联储主席，这些因素在最近几周推升了美元。OxfordEconomics认为瓦尔许担任下任美联储主席的可能性为40%。市场愈发认为他是一位鹰派人士；不过，futures市场反映未来12个月加息两次的概率仅为40%，而如果美国经济数据改善，那么这一概率或许会大幅变化，从而带动美国公债收益率和美元走升。此外，上周公布的众多经济资料整体乐观，美国9monthISM制造业活动指数攀升至13年半高位、8月贸易逆差收窄至去年9月来最低、9月服务业以12年以来最快速度扩张、上周初请失业金人数降幅超预期、9月民间就业岗位增幅亦高于分析师预期。周五晚美国公布9月份非农就业报告，数据显示，美国9月非农就业职位减少3.3万个，远逊于预期的增加9万个；但失业率报4.2%Better than expected4.4%；而平均时薪则较前月增长0.5%，预测为0.3%。整体数据好坏参半，其中就业职位减少很大程度是受到之前的飓风吹袭所影响，但平均时薪增长高于预期，则有助提高了12月加息的机会。

伦敦黄金方面，金价周五触及近两个月最低位1260水平，因美元升至逾七周高位。金价自九月以来的跌势形成一下降趋向线，现形成一阻力于1285水平，后市需突破此区，才见初步回稳迹象；下一级关键则见于25Balance moving average1305水平，在此轮跌势中，金价的两度反扑亦是受制此技术指标。支持位方面，由去年12month15Daily low1122.35USD to9month8Daily high1357.54美元的累计涨幅计算， 50%的回吐水平会看至1240USD, extended to61.8%Will reach1212USD.

This weekIMF/世行集团年度大会将在华盛顿召开，全球主要财经高管将纷纷亮相。朝鲜是否会在10month10日朝鲜劳动党成立纪念日做出挑衅举动，也倍受关注。此外，中国将公布9月海关统计月度初步汇总资料，美国9月消费者物价指数也将公布。

London Gold10month9day – 13Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1287 – 1296 – 1318 – 1357
Support bit:1272 – 1263 – 1250 – 1237

London Gold10month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1271 – 1289
Resistance level:1305 – 1321
Support bit:1255 – 1238

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton
9month18Day -843.96ton
9month19Day -846.03ton
9month20Day -846.03ton
9month21Day -852.24ton
9month25Day -856.08ton
9month26Day -862.58ton
9month27Day -864.65ton
9month28Day -864.65ton
10month2Day -859.33ton
10month3Day -854.30ton
10month5Day -851.06ton
10month6Day -854.02ton

12Maturity date of monthly gold futures:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价低位整理

伦敦白银方面，跟黄金走势相若，在此轮下跌走势中亦形成了一下降趋向线，目前位于16.83美元，银价需冲破此区才见近期弱势得以缓和；预计延伸阻力可至17.20and17.50美元。而当前亦需留意100天平均线位置，上周银价三日探试此区亦未能作出突破。下方支持方面，若果以黄金比率计算，50%and61.8%的回调为16.53and16.14美元。较大支持可参考15.70。

London Silver10month9day – 13Daily predicted wave amplitude
Resistance level:17.30 – 17.90 – 18.30 – 18.60
Support bit:16.60 – 16.00 – 15.50 – 15.00

London Silver10month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.60 – 17.30
Resistance level:17.90 – 18.20
Support bit:16.00 – 15.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month18Day - 10141.26ton
9month19Day - 10106.00ton
9month20Day - 10106.00ton
9month21Day - 10106.00ton
9month25Day - 10163.29ton
9month26Day - 10163.29ton
9month27Day - 10163.29ton
9month28Day - 10163.29ton
10month2Day - 10163.29ton
10month3Day - 10158.88ton
10month5Day - 10129.51ton
10month6Day - 10129.51ton






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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)