Crossing the Sea 2017year10month4day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

10

month

4

day

Focus this week:
10month4day(Wednesday)
U.S.A9monthADPChanges in private employment positions
U.S.A9monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A9monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A9monthISMNon manufacturing index

10month5day(Thursday)
U.S.A9monthChallengerNumber of layoffs planned by the company
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A8Monthly International Trade Balance
U.S.A8Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A8Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision

10month6day(Friday)
U.S.A9Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A9Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A9Monthly average hourly salary
U.S.A8Monthly wholesale inventory‧销售月率修订

10month7day(Saturday)
U.S.A8Monthly Consumer Credit


Important economic data released today:  
15：45 Italy9monthMarkit/ADACIService industryPMI‧forecast54.9‧Previous value55.1
15：50 France9monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast57.1‧Previous value57.1
15：50 France9monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast57.2‧Previous value57.2
15：55 Germany9monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast55.6‧Previous value55.6
15：55 Germany9monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast57.8‧Previous value57.8
16：00 eurozone9monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧forecast55.6‧Previous value55.6
16：00 eurozone9monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧forecast56.7‧Previous value56.7
16：30 britain9monthMarkit/CIPSCIPS services PMI (PMI)‧forecast53.2‧Previous value53.2
18：00 eurozone8Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value-0.3%
18：00 eurozone8Monthly retail sales annual rate‧forecast+2.6%‧Previous value+2.6%
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value415.6
19：00 Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,445.6
20：15 U.S.A9monthADPChanges in private employment positions‧Forecast increase12.5Ten thousand‧Previous value increase23.7ten thousand
21：45 U.S.A9monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.6
21：45 U.S.A9monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value55.1
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturing index‧forecast55.5‧Previous value55.3
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)企业活动分项指数‧forecast57.2‧Previous value57.5
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧Previous value56.2
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value57.1
22：00 U.S.A9Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value57.9



News of the Week
Monday/美国达拉斯联储总裁：美联储将需“仔细研究”是否应在12Monthly interest rate increase

Tuesday/BBC：西班牙加泰罗尼亚领导人表示，该地区将在数日内宣布独立

U.S.A8Monthly construction expenditure increases0.5%
U.S.AISM9The monthly manufacturing index is60.8, creating2004year5The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A9monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is53.1


10month3day
LondongoldMorning order price:1270.70
London gold afternoon fixing price:1271.25



XAU London Gold - 金价尚处弱势盘整

金价继周二触及七周低位1267.76美元后，周三略呈回稳。美元周三涨势暂缓，因在美元连升三周后投资人轧平仓位，且本周后三日美国将有大量数据出炉，包括周五的9月非农就业报告。另外，在Politico报导，美国财长努钦倾向美联储理事鲍威尔接替耶伦出任美联储主席后，美元掉头回落。近几日，美联储前理事瓦尔许一直被认为是联储主席的热门人选，他的政策主张要比耶伦更偏鹰派。美国经济数据转强、美国减税前景及美国联邦储备理事会(FED)May be in12月加息已经在近几周提振美元。

技术图表所见，金价自九月以来的跌势形成一下降趋向线，现形成一阻力于1292水平，后市需突破此区，才见初步回稳迹象；下一级关键则见于25Balance moving average1310水平，在此轮跌势中，金价的两度反扑亦是受制此技术指标。至于当前较近阻力则预料在1279and1286美元。支持位方面，由7month10Daily low1204.45USD to9month8Daily high1357.54美元的累计涨幅计算，61.8%的回吐水平会看至1263美元。较大支持依据估计为1257USD.

London Gold10month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1271 – 1279
Resistance level:1286 – 1298
Support bit:1264 – 1257

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton
9month18Day -843.96ton
9month19Day -846.03ton
9month20Day -846.03ton
9month21Day -852.24ton
9month25Day -856.08ton
9month26Day -862.58ton
9month27Day -864.65ton
9month28Day -864.65ton
10month2Day -859.33ton
10month3Day -854.30ton

12Monthly goldfuturesDue date:12month27day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton


XAG London Silver - 银价低位整理

伦敦白银方面，跟黄金走势相若，在此轮下跌走势中亦形成了一下降趋向线，目前位于16.97美元，银价需冲破此区才见近期弱势得以缓和；预计延伸阻力可至17.50美元。而当前亦需留意100天平均线位置，上周银价三日探试此区亦未能作出突破，如今价位亦正再次到访100The current position of the balance moving average16.87美元。下方支持方面，若果以黄金比率计算，50%and61.8%的回调为16.53and16.14USD.   
London Silver10month4day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.50 – 16.80
Resistance level:17.00 – 17.50
Support bit:16.20 – 15.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
9month18Day - 10141.26ton
9month19Day - 10106.00ton
9month20Day - 10106.00ton
9month21Day - 10106.00ton
9month25Day - 10163.29ton
9month26Day - 10163.29ton
9month27Day - 10163.29ton
9month28Day - 10163.29ton
10month2Day - 10163.29ton
10month3Day - 10158.88ton



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)