Crossing the Sea 2017year9month22day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

22

day

EUR euro - 欧元横盘待变

欧元区经济连续17个季度增长，有助欧洲央行缩减刺激措施。不过，消息人士对路透表示，决策者对于是否在10月政策会议上敲定结束印钞计划的明确时间看法分歧，他们很有可能至少保留在2018年延长购债操作的选项。消息人士称，欧元持续强势打压了通胀，导致决策者看法分歧。德国等北方富国为首的鹰派准备缩减2.3万亿欧元的购债计划，但鸽派只是希望缩减每月购债规模。这样一来，官员们可能在10month26日的会议寻求妥协，不会确定购债操作的结束日期，或将推迟至12月再做决定。

欧元兑美元涨见至1.20关口，本周累计亦升0.1%。市场人士认为德国周日大选并未构成风险。各界普遍预期德国总理默克尔将迎接第四个任期。

欧元兑美元走势，图表所见，汇价自年初以来一直反复上扬，而近期更依随着25天平均线往上攀升，目前25The balance moving average is at1.1870，需留意倘若后市失守此区，则欧元料会面临较大幅度调整，下延支持可参考1.1710and1.16水平。反之，若欧元可重新回稳于1.20关口之上，则整段上升行情仍可望延续。以自2014Year to2016年欧元的累计跌幅计算，50%The rebound level is1.2170Expand to61.8%Then it is1.26. Additionally,200Monthly average line1.2370亦可作为一阻力参考。
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2000- 1.2170 - 1.2370
support 1.1920- 1.1860* - 1.1710 – 1.1600

Focus:
9month25day(one): Germany9monthIfoBusiness Prosperity Index‧IfoCurrent situation index‧IfoExpected index
9month26day(two): France9Monthly Enterprise Prosperity Index‧Italy8Initial value of monthly non EU trade balance
9month27day(three): France9Monthly Consumer Confidence Index‧eurozone8monthM3Annual rate of goods supply‧M3针对家庭的放款‧Italy9月制造业商业信心指数‧Consumer confidence index‧Italy7Monthly industrial orders‧Industrial sales
9month28day(four): Germany10monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧eurozone9Monthly Business Prosperity Index‧Economic Sentiment Index‧工业景气指数‧服务业景气指数‧消费者信心指数终值‧消费者通胀预期指数‧Germany9monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value
9month29day(five): Germany8Monthly import prices‧实质零售销售‧消费者支出月率‧France9monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Germany9Changes in monthly unemployment numbers‧Unemployed population‧unemployment rate‧Italy9monthCPIinitial value‧HICPinitial value‧Italy8monthPPI‧eurozone9monthHICPAnnual rate initial value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPAnnual rate initial value

Related news
Germany8monthPPIUp from the previous month0.2%, up from the same period last year2.6%
eurozone9Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is55.6
eurozone9Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is58.2
eurozone9Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is56.7
Germany9Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is60.6
Germany9Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is57.8
Germany9Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is55.6
France9Monthly service industryPMIThe initial value is57.1
France9Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The initial value is56.0
France9Monthly comprehensivePMIThe initial value is57.2
France's Q2 Gross Domestic Product(GDP)终值为较前季增长0.5%

欧洲央行经济报告：欧元区增长获得动能，但通胀低迷


JPY yen - 朝鲜紧张情势和中国遭降评均打压冒险意愿

美元兑日圆周五在朝鲜半岛紧张情势升温之际下跌，韩国联合通讯社报导，朝鲜外务相李勇浩周五称，认为朝鲜可能考虑在太平洋进行一次规模空前的氢弹试验。另外，标普全球评级调降中国主权评级的消息，亦加剧投资人避险情绪。标普全球评级周五表示，中国试图降低债务迅速增长的风险，这一努力并没有像预期那样快奏效，信贷增长仍然太快。美元兑日圆一度跌见至111.64。本周美元兑日圆仍累计上涨逾1%，美联储暗示年内仍将升息以及日本央行维持购债承诺之后，美元曾攀升至两个月高点112.72。

技术走势而言，预估美元兑日圆整体上仍继续陷于108to112区间争持，后市需待明确破位后才见较明确方向，估计美元兑日圆即将迎来一轮破位后的单边大行情。倘若向下破位，下试目标预估可至107.20，关键直指105Gateway and103.50。另一边厢，倘若向上突破，下级关注为112.90and114.50水平，较大阻力则参考今年初高位118.60。
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 109.50 – 110.00 – 112.00
support 108.80 - 107.20 – 105.00

Focus:
9month25day(one): Japan9Monthly and daily manufacturing industryPMI
9month28day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
9month29day(five): Japan8Monthly talent seeking and job seeking ratio‧unemployment rate‧所有家庭支出‧National CoreCPI‧Japan9Tokyo Regional CoreCPI‧Japan8Initial value of monthly industrial production‧一个月预估值初值‧两个月预估值初值‧零售销售年率‧建筑订单年率‧房屋开工年率

Related news
Japan8月出口较上年同期增加18.1%
Japan8Monthly imports increased compared to the same period last year15.2%
Japan8The monthly trade surplus is1136Billion yen

日本央行维持货币政策不变，新晋审议委员片冈刚士投反对票


GBP pound - 观望文翠珊演说

英国央行总裁卡尼在国际货币基金组织(IMF)的演说中表示，英国脱欧或将在短期内损害英国的增长前景并且推升通胀，因英国要调整适应脱欧后的日子。他还重申英国央行可能很快就要升息的讯息。不过由于卡尼在央行利率行动时间方面欠缺明确评论，他讲完话后英镑下跌。路透调查显示，近三分之二的受访分析师目前预计英国央行将在11月升息，但四分之三的受访者认为那时候升息不是正确时机。本周牵动英镑的更大因素是英相文翠珊是否软化退欧身段。她周五稍晚将发表演说，部分媒体披露她将称英国愿在退欧过渡阶段支付200亿欧元换取单一市场准入等关税优惠。英镑由跌转升，逼近去年6月退欧公投后最高水平。

技术图表所见，英镑兑美元已升破了8month3Daily high1.3264，在此期间已形成一组U型反弹行情，倘若汇价可持稳于此颈线上方，配合10天平均线已突破25天平均线，可望英镑延续升势。上方目标先看1.3655, forgold比率61.8%的反弹水平。较大阻力料为1.3830To the extent that1.40关口。下方支持则回看1.34and1.3270Horizontal.   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3655 – 1.3830 – 1.4000
support 1.3400- 1.3270
                                                                       
Focus:
9month26day(two): UK8monthBBANumber of approved mortgage loans
9month27day(three)：英国第二季GDP‧商业投资‧流动帐平衡‧britain9monthCBIRetail sales difference
9month29day(five): UK9monthGfKConsumer confidence index‧britain8Monthly Consumer Credit‧抵押贷款发放金额‧Number of approved mortgage loans‧M4Monthly rate of goods supply

Related news
英国央行总裁：脱欧将推升国内通胀并放缓增长，重申升息讯号

britain8月扣除国有银行的公共部门净借款为56.69Billion pounds
britain8The monthly shortfall in public sector revenue and expenditure is0.37Billion pounds
britain8月公共部门净借款为50.93Billion pounds


CHF Swiss franc - 瑞士政府调降2017年经济增长展望，因年初开局表现疲软

技术图表所见，预计美元兑瑞郎下方支持先会瞩目于0.9540and0.95，关键则料为0.94水平，过去两个月已曾考验这个关口，至今趟亦暂见止步于此。至于向上需留意100天平均线，在上月多次探试亦未有上破，目前处于0.9690水平，换言之，若后市汇价突破此区，则此段跌势或会先告暂缓；较大阻力则会指向0.98To the extent that250Balance moving average0.9890Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9610 - 0.9700*
support 0.9400* - 0.9320 -0.900

Related news
Switzerland8Monthly trade surplus21.73Billion Swiss francs

The Swiss government expects2017yearGDPincrease0.9%
The Swiss government expects2018yearGDPincrease2%
The Swiss government expects2017The annual inflation rate is0.5%

Focus:
9month27day(three)Switzerland8monthUBS瑞士消费指标‧Switzerland9Monthly Investor Confidence Index
9month29day(five)Switzerland9monthKOF领先成长指标


AUD AUD - 澳元初步喘稳

技术走势而言，自八月中旬低位0.7808至今的走势，图表上形成了一道短期上升趋向线，支撑位置处于0.7940，在周初碰及此区已未有下跌，但尚见仍会再次被探试的风险，需留意若然失守，澳元仍呈下调压力，较大支撑则先会参考0.78水平。另外，若果以5month9Daily low0.7329至本月高位0.8125Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%的回调幅度会看至0.7820and0.7730，扩大幅度至61.8%Will reach0.7630。其他技术指标所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均自超卖区域有着回升迹象，倘若汇价在本周稍后时间仍可守檼着上述的趋向线，将可望澳元很大机会重新踏上升轨。阻力可先参考2015year5Monthly high0.8164，下一级则看0.83and0.8380Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.8170 – 0.8300 – 0.8380
support 0.7940* - 0.7800 -0.7730 - 0.7630
                                                                       
Related news
澳洲第二季主要城市房价较前季上涨1.9%，较上年同期扬升10.2%

澳洲央行助理总裁称劳动力市场存在闲置，对通胀感到安心

Focus:
9month29day(five): Australia8月民间部门信贷月率‧房屋信贷月率


NZD New Zealand dollars - 选举民调刺激纽元走高

图表走势所见，纽元月初于200天平均线获见支撑，目前处于0.7135，将视为关键，若后市跌破此区，纽元将延续弱势。倘若以五月低位0.6818至七月高位0.7557的累积升幅计算，61.8%的回吐水平会看至0.71。而据顶部与颈线的相距幅度357点计算，下延的技术目标则可至0.6843。另一方面，上方阻力先回看50Balance moving average0.7320，关键阻力则指向0.75Horizontal.
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7230 - 0.7500
support 0.7135 – 0.7100 - 0.6840

Related news
新西兰第三季消费者信心小跌至112.4
新西兰第二季实际经常帐赤字6.18Billions of New Zealand dollars
新西兰第二季经季调的经常帐赤字为15.98Billions of New Zealand dollars

Focus:
9month26day(two): New Zealand8Monthly imports‧Export‧trade balance‧by8月的一年贸易平衡‧New Zealand9monthNBNZ商业展望指数‧NBNZBusiness Activity Index
9month28day(four)：新西兰央行利率决定
9month29day(five): New Zealand8Monthly building permit rate


CAD Cad - 央行言论打压加元

美元兑加元方面，汇价明确地摆脱了1.24这个支撑关口，而且10Sky shattering25天平均线形成利淡交叉，MACD亦已下破讯号线，均示意着美元兑加元仍会继续延伸近三个多月来的弱势，下探支持将会看至1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916To the extent that1.18水平。上方阻力则会回看1.24and25Balance moving average1.2450Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2400 – 1.2530
support 1.2000 – 1.1916 – 1.1800

                                                               
Focus:   
9month22day(five): Canada8monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada7Monthly retail sales‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
9month29day(five): Canada7monthGDPMonthly rate‧Canada8月工业产品价格‧原材料价格

Related news
加拿大央行副总裁：将密切关注加元走强，利率决议取决于数据表现

Canada7Monthly manufacturing sales have declined compared to the previous month2.6%




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)