Crossing the Sea 2017year9month22day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

22

day

Focus this week:
9month22day(Friday)
U.S.A9monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value
U.S.A9monthMarkitService industryPMIinitial value

9month25day(Monday)
U.S.A8Monthly National Activity Index
U.S.A9Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for the Month

9month26day(Tuesday)
U.S.A7monthCaseShillerHouse Price Index
U.S.A9Monthly Consumer Confidence Index
U.S.A8Monthly sales of new houses
U.S.A9Monthly Richmond Fed Composite Manufacturing Index

9month27day(Wednesday)
U.S.A8Monthly Building Permit Revision
U.S.A8Monthly rate of durable goods orders
U.S.A8Monthly Housing Pending Sales Index
U.S.A8Monthly sales rate of completed houses to be completed

9month28day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Season 2 in the United StatesGDPMonth on month annual rate final value
美国第二季消费者支出终值
Season 2 in the United StatesGDP平减指数终值
Season 2 in the United StatesPCEFinal value of price index
U.S.A8Initial value of monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A8Initial monthly wholesale inventory rate
U.S.A9月堪萨斯联储制造业指数
U.S.A9月堪萨斯联储综合指数

9month29day(Friday)
U.S.A8月实质个人消费月率
U.S.A8Monthly personal income rate
U.S.A8Monthly personal expenditure rate
U.S.A8monthPCEprice index
U.S.A8Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean
U.S.A9Month ChicagoPMI
U.S.A9Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month


Important economic data released today:  
18：00 britain9Monthly Industrial Alliance(CBI)Total industrial order difference‧Predict positive13‧Front value positive13
20：30 Canada8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Front value remains unchanged
20：30 Canada8Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧forecast+1.5%‧Previous value+1.2%
20：30 Canada8Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value-0.1%
20：30 Canada8Monthly Central Bank Core Consumer Price Index(CPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+0.9%
20：30 Canada7Monthly retail sales rate‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 Canada7Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars‧forecast+0.4%‧Previous value+0.7%
21：45 U.S.A9monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)initial value‧Previous value55.3
21：45 U.S.A9monthMarkitManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)initial value‧forecast53.0‧Previous value52.8
21：45 U.S.A9monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)initial value‧forecast55.9‧Previous value56.0


News of the Week
Monday/美国防部长暗示存在对朝鲜诉诸武力的选项，但未提供细节

U.S.A7月整体资本净流出73USD100mn
U.S.A9monthNAHBThe housing market index is64

Tuesday/特朗普誓言若面临威胁，美国将彻底毁灭朝鲜

U.S.A8Monthly building permit growth5.7%At an annual rate of130.010000 households
U.S.A8月房屋开工下降0.8%At an annual rate of11810000 households
美国二季经常帐赤字为1,231.4USD100mn
U.S.A8Monthly import prices have increased compared to the previous month0.6%
U.S.A8月出口物价较前月上升0.6%

Wednesday/美联储一如预期维持利率不变，但表明仍预期年底前还会再升息一次
美联储表示，将于10月开始缩减约4.2万亿美元的公债和抵押贷款支持证券(MBS)组合

Thursday/日本央行一如预期维持政策不变
标普将中国长期主权信用评级从“AA-”Lowering to“A+”


9month21day
LondongoldMorning order price:1297.35
London gold afternoon fixing price:1292.10

Today's Introduction
德国周日举行选举，似乎已是大势底定。所有主要的调查都预测，现任总理默克尔执掌的保守派将赢得头名。根据这个调查结果，应当意味着德国不会出现政治动荡。这些政策的执行期间，德国经济繁荣，消费者信心上升。但是要保持现状，一定程度上将取决于默克尔的中右德国基督教民主党(CDU)/Christian Social Union(CSU)组合在选举中相对于德国社会民主党(SPD)的表现了。而极右翼的德国新选择党(AfD)、亲商的自由民主党(FDP)等党派则可能则可能左右形势。因此几个百分点将会决定默克尔的联盟选项，以及她未来四年的政策议程--这会左右德国对欧元区一体化、减税、政府支出及政府资产私有化的立场。

周四标普下调中国主权信用评级，称长时间的强劲信贷增长提高了中国的经济金融风险。虽然标普此次调降使得其对中国的评级与穆迪和惠誉相同，但鉴于中共十九大将在几周后召开，此次调降的时机颇令人意外。展望下周，重磅数据将相继登场，有英国GDP、美国第二季GDP终值和美联储看重的通胀指标PCE物价指数。日本德国均将公布CPI、中国工业经济效益月度报告等。此外，多位央行巨头，包括美联储主席耶伦、欧洲央行总裁德拉吉在内都有演说安排。新西兰央行将公布利率决议。


XAU London Gold - 朝鲜局势提振黄金反弹

黄金周五从四周低点反弹，因美朝局势的最新波折促使投资人买入避险资产。金价升见至1298水平上方，上日触及四周低点1,287.61美元。本周金价累计下跌1.7%，料连续第二周下跌。美国总统特朗普周四下令实施新制裁措施，将更多与朝鲜有贸易往来的个人和实体加入黑名单，对朝鲜的核武器与导弹计划进一步施压。朝鲜领导人金正恩周五在一份罕见的声明中表示，朝鲜将考虑对美国采取“史上最强硬的反制举措，”对美国总统特朗普日前威胁“彻底摧毁”朝鲜的言论做出回应。

金价周一跌破了起延自七月份的上升趋向线以及25天平均线支撑，反映行整体走势仍处偏软发展。由7month10Daily low1204.45USD to9month8Daily high1357.54美元的上行趋势的50%and61.8%的回吐水平将会看至1281and1263美元，将为支撑参考。另一方面，上方阻力则预估在1307and1321，较大阻力估计为1333Horizontal.
      
London Gold9month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1292 - 1307
Resistance level:1321 - 1333
Support bit:1278 – 1264

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton
8month30Day -816.43ton
8month31Day -816.43ton
9month1Day -831.21ton
9month4Day -831.21ton
9month5Day -840.08ton
9month6Day -837.12ton
9month7Day -836.87ton
9month8Day -834.50ton
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton
9month14Day -838.64ton
9month15Day -838.64ton
9month18Day -843.96ton
9month19Day -846.03ton
9month20Day -846.03ton
9month21Day -852.24ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton


XAG London Silver - 银价延续弱势

伦敦白银方面，RSI及随机指数重新回落；下方支持料为16.90and16.50美元。若果以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回调为16.93and16.54Expand to61.8%by16.14美元。上方阻力参考17.40，较大阻力则料为17.80and18.40USD.

London Silver9month22day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.90 – 17.40
Resistance level:17.80 – 18.40
Support bit:16.50 – 16.10
                                                               
iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton
8month30Day - 10363.03ton
8month31Day - 10318.94ton
9month1Day - 10304.24ton
9month4Day - 10304.24ton
9month5Day - 10299.95ton
9month6Day - 10202.97ton
9month7Day - 10173.58ton
9month8Day - 10173.58ton
9month11Day - 10173.58ton
9month12Day - 10173.58ton
9month13Day - 10173.58ton
9month14Day - 10173.58ton
9month15Day - 10173.58ton
9month18Day - 10141.26ton
9month19Day - 10106.00ton
9month20Day - 10106.00ton
9month21Day - 10106.00ton



QRCode      http://app.mw801.com

Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)