Crossing the Sea 2017year9month14day (Gold)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

14

day

Focus this week:
9month14day(Thursday)
U.S.A8Monthly federal budget
U.S.A8monthCPI‧coreCPI
U.S.A8Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits

9month15day(Friday)
U.S.A9New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month
U.S.A8Monthly retail sales rate
U.S.A8Monthly retail sales rate after deducting cars
U.S.A8Monthly industrial production rate
U.S.A8Monthly capacity utilization rate
U.S.A8Monthly manufacturing output rate
U.S.A7Monthly commercial inventory rate
U.S.A9Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index
U.S.A9月密歇根大学现况指数初值
U.S.A9月密歇根大学预期指数初值



Important economic data released today:  
19：00 Bank of England Rate Resolution
20：30 Canada7Monthly New Housing Price Index‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 U.S.A8Seasonally adjusted consumer price index for menstruation(CPI)Monthly rate‧forecast+0.3%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A8月未经季节调整的CPIthe annual rate‧forecast+1.8%‧Previous value+1.7%
20：30 U.S.A8The core of menstrual season adjustmentCPIMonthly rate‧forecast+0.2%‧Previous value+0.1%
20：30 U.S.A8月未经季节调整的核心CPIthe annual rate‧forecast+1.6%‧Previous value+1.7%
20：30 U.S.A8Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week‧forecast-0.2%‧Previous value+0.2%
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(9month9Day and Week)‧forecast30.0ten thousand people‧Previous value29.8ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(9month9Day and Week)‧Previous value25.025ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(9month2Day and Week)‧forecast198.5ten thousand people‧Previous value194.0ten thousand people



News of the Week
联合国安理会一致通过对朝鲜第六次核试验实施新制裁

美国劳工部职位空缺及劳动力流动调查(JOLTS)display7月经季调后职位空缺升至617ten thousand

U.S.A8The monthly budget deficit is1,080USD100mn
U.S.A2017财年迄今预算赤字为6,740USD100mn
U.S.A8Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Up from the previous month0.2%
U.S.A8Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIUp from the previous month0.1%
U.S.A8Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIUp from the previous month0.2%
U.S.A8Monthly final demandPPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.4%
U.S.A8Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPIIncrease compared to the same period last year2.0%
U.S.A8Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPIIncrease compared to the same period last year1.9%


9month13day
LondongoldMorning order price:1332.25
London gold afternoon fixing price:1327.55


Today's Introduction
U.S.A8Monthly Final Demand Producer Price Index(PPI)Up from the previous month0.2%，同比上扬2.4%。生产者物价反弹，受汽油价格成本飙升带动，基础生产者通胀也有加速的迹象。分析师称，生产者物价上升不大可能缓解美国联邦储备理事会(FED)决策者对低通胀的担忧，因这一涨势主要受汽油成本飙升推动。



XAU London Gold - 投资者风险偏好升温，金价回落

金价回跌，低见至9month1The lowest in recent days1318.75美元；受避险情绪降温拖累，且美元在美国消费者通胀数据公布前企稳。该数据可能提供美国进一步升息时机的线索。美元上周兑一篮子货币跌至两年半低点，兑日圆触及10个月新低，但在今晚美国公布8月通胀数据前持稳，美国8月生产者物价反弹为美元提供了一些支撑。

图表走势所见，随着近两日价格的回跌，技术指标亦出现了转变，MACD指针已与讯号线呈现交迭，大有机会将出现利淡交叉，相对强弱指标及随机指数亦已大幅回挫，估计金价仍见回吐压力，较近支持料为1315美元，关键则为起延自七月份的上升趋向线1310This area is also25天平均线附近位置，需慎防若金价进一步跌破此区，将会有着更大之调整空间，延伸目标看至1303and1296Horizontal. The upper resistance is estimated to be1326and1333，较大阻力估计为1340Horizontal.

London Gold9month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1315 – 1326
Resistance level:1333 – 1340 – 1354
Support bit:1310 – 1303 –- 1296

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
8month14Day - 791.01ton
8month15Day - 791.01ton
8month16Day - 795.44ton
8month17Day - 795.44ton
8month18Day - 799.29ton
8month21Day - 799.29ton
8month22Day - 799.29ton
8month23Day - 799.29ton
8month24Day - 799.29ton
8month25Day -805.20ton
8month28Day -814.36ton
8month29Day -816.43ton
8month30Day -816.43ton
8month31Day -816.43ton
9month1Day -831.21ton
9month4Day -831.21ton
9month5Day -840.08ton
9month6Day -837.12ton
9month7Day -836.87ton
9month8Day -834.50ton
9month11Day -835.68ton
9month12Day -838.64ton
9month13Day -838.64ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
12Monthly goldoptionDue date:11month27day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year7month7day)

Global:33465.1 (+39.5ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3374.1ton (-3.2ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1715.8ton (+28.5ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(93)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价呈回调风险

伦敦白银方面，上周五银价冲高回落，并引发RSI及随机指数亦大幅度下冲，料银价短期有进一步回吐压力，向下将瞩目于上升趋向线17.68，若此区亦告失守，则将面临更具规模之下跌。以黄金比率计算，38.2%and50%的回调为16.93and16.54Expand to61.8%by16.14美元。上方阻力则参考17.80，较大阻力则料为18.20and18.50USD.

London Silver9month14day
Predicting early wave amplitude:17.30 – 17.80
Resistance level:18.20 – 18.50
Support bit:17.00 – 16.70

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
8month21Day - 10401.24ton
8month22Day - 10401.24ton
8month23Day - 10401.24ton
8month24Day - 10363.03ton
8month25Day - 10363.03ton
8month28Day - 10363.03ton
8month29Day - 10363.03ton
8month30Day - 10363.03ton
8month31Day - 10318.94ton
9month1Day - 10304.24ton
9month4Day - 10304.24ton
9month5Day - 10299.95ton
9month6Day - 10202.97ton
9month7Day - 10173.58ton
9month8Day - 10173.58ton
9month11Day - 10173.58ton
9month12Day - 10173.58ton
9month13Day - 10173.58ton




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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)