Crossing the Sea 2017year9month18day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

9

month

18

day

EUR euro - Horizontal plate to be changed

欧元兑美元走势，图表所见，汇价自年初以来一直反复上扬，而近期更依随着25天平均线往上攀升，目前25The balance moving average is at1.1870，需留意倘若后市失守此区，则欧元料会面临较大幅度调整，下延支持可参考1.1710and1.16水平。反之，若欧元可重新回稳于1.20关口之上，则整段上升行情仍可望延续。以自2014Year to2016年欧元的累计跌幅计算，50%The rebound level is1.2170Expand to61.8%Then it is1.26. Additionally,200Monthly average line1.2370亦可作为一阻力参考。

Focus:
9month18day(one): Italy7Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance‧eurozone8monthHICPFinal value‧Deducting food and energy expensesHICPFinal value
9month19day(two): Eurozone7Monthly current account‧Germany9monthZEWEconomic Sentiment Index‧ZEWCurrent situation index
9month20day(three): Germany8monthPPI
9month21day(four): Eurozone9Initial value of monthly consumer confidence index
9month22day(five): France9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧Germany9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value‧eurozone9monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIinitial value‧MarkitService industryPMIinitial value‧MarkitcomprehensivePMIinitial value
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2000 – 1.2170 – 1.2370
support 1.1920 – 1.1860* – 1.1710 – 1.1600



JPY yen - 区间争持

技术走势而言，预估美元兑日圆整体上仍继续陷于108to112区间争持，而上周之破位仅视为假突破，后市需待明确破位后才见较明确方向，建议投资者静心等待，估计美元兑日圆即将迎来一轮破位后的单边大行情。倘若向下破位，下试目标预估可至107.20，关键直指105Gateway and103.50。另一边厢，倘若向上突破，下级关注为112.90and114.50水平，较大阻力则参考今年初高位118.60。

Focus:
9month20day(three): Japan8Monthly trade balance‧Annual export rate‧Annual import rate
9month21day(four)：日本央行利率决定‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 109.50 – 110.00 – 112.00
support 108.80 – 107.20 – 105.00



GBP pound - 英国触及14Month high

英镑兑美元周五触及14个月高位，而英镑贸易加权指有机会创下逾八年来最大周线涨幅，因市场扩大押注英国央行将于近期升息。英镑兑美元周四创下4月以来最大涨幅，至周五延续涨势，触及1.3615, for2016year6The highest since the beginning of the month.

技术图表所见，英镑兑美元已升破了8month3Daily high1.3264，在此期间已形成一组U型反弹行情，倘若汇价可持稳于此颈线上方，配合10天平均线已突破25天平均线，可望英镑延续升势。上方目标先看1.3655, forgold比率61.8%的反弹水平。较大阻力料为1.3830To the extent that1.40关口。下方支持则回看1.34and1.3270Horizontal.

Focus:
9month20day(three): UK8Monthly retail sales‧Retail sales excluding energy
9month21day(four): UK8monthUK FINANCENumber of approved mortgage loans‧PSNB‧PSNCR

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3300 – 1.3445
support 1.3110 – 1.3000 – 1.2950



CHF Swiss franc - 瑞士央行总裁乔丹强调将维持现行宽松货币政策

瑞士央行周四维持3MonthsLibor目标下限-1.25%和上限-0.25%不变，同时还维持央行活期存款利率-0.75%不变。均符合市场预期。瑞士央行在随后公布的政策声明中称，瑞郎显著高估的程度已经下降，但升值水平依然过高。如有必要，央行将对foreign exchange市场进行干预。瑞士央行坦言，根据对既有经济指标的分析，瑞士经济持续温和复苏，瑞士经济受惠于全球经济活动增强。瑞士央行预期，瑞士2017年经济增速将略低于1%，较此前预期的1.5%有不小的下调；但瑞士央行同时上调今年和明、后两年的通胀预期0.1个百分点，分别至0.4%、0.4%and1.1%。

技术图表所见，预计美元兑瑞郎下方支持先会瞩目于0.9540and0.95，关键则料为0.94水平，过去两个月已曾考验这个关口，至今趟亦暂见止步于此。至于向上需留意100天平均线，在上月多次探试亦未有上破，目前处于0.9690水平，换言之，若后市汇价突破此区，则此段跌势或会先告暂缓；较大阻力则会指向0.98To the extent that250Balance moving average0.9890Horizontal.

Focus:
9month21day(four)Switzerland8Monthly trade balance
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9610 – 0.9700*
support 0.9400* – 0.9320 – 0.900



AUD AUD - 受就业数据提振

技术走势而言，澳元兑美元在近期区间内波动，在之前四周大部分时间处于0.78to0.80区间，目前向上破位后，若后市仍何继续稳企稳于0.80关口上方，预料澳元兑美元将可延展升势。较大阻力则可留意0.8170and0.83水平。至于下方支持将回看0.78水平；若以去年十二月低位0.7160起始的累计涨幅计算，38.2%and50%的回调水平为0.7720and0.7610。

Focus:
9month18day(one): Australia8月新车销量
9month19day(two)：澳洲第二季房价指数

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.8170 – 0.8300
support 0.8000 – 0.7800 – 0.7720 – 0.7610



NZD New Zealand dollars - Horizontal plate to be changed

纽元兑美元交投在0.73水平，稍稍脱离上周五触及的一个月高点0.7338美元。在新西兰进行大选前，投资者近来离场观望。反 对党领袖JacindaArdern与总理英格利希的支持率不相上下。图表走势所见，纽元月初于200天平均线获见支撑，目前处于0.7135，将视为关键，若后市跌破此区，纽元将延续弱势。倘若以五月低位0.6818至七月高位0.7557的累积升幅计算，61.8%的回吐水平会看至0.71。而据顶部与颈线的相距幅度357点计算，下延的技术目标则可至0.6843。另一方面，上方阻力先回看50Balance moving average0.7320，关键阻力则指向0.75Horizontal.
      
Focus:
9month19day(two)：新西兰第三季WestpacConsumer confidence index
9month20day(three)：新西兰第二季流动帐‧by6月的年度流动帐
9month21day(four): New Zealand Season 2GDP

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7230 – 0.7500
support 0.7135 – 0.7100 – 0.6840



CAD Cad - Exploration1.20Gateway

美元兑加元方面，汇价明确地摆脱了1.24这个支撑关口，而且10Sky shattering25天平均线形成利淡交叉，MACD亦已下破讯号线，均示意着美元兑加元仍会继续延伸近三个多月来的弱势，下探支持将会看至1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916To the extent that1.18水平。上方阻力则会回看1.24and25Balance moving average1.2450Horizontal.

Focus:
9month19day(two): Canada7Monthly manufacturing sales rate
9month21day(four): Canada7Monthly wholesale trade rate
9month22day(five): Canada8monthCPI‧Central Bank CoreCPI‧Canada7Monthly retail sales‧Deducting the monthly retail sales rate of automobiles
      
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2400 – 1.2530
support 1.2000 – 1.1916 – 1.1800
  


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)