Suye Lunjin:8.1Technical Analysis and Operational Suggestions for Gold and Foreign Exchange in the Evening

After Trump's successive setbacks in overturning Obama's healthcare bill, the market has also been full of doubts about whether he can smoothly introduce tax reform and economic stimulus plans. At the same time, he himself is also deeply embroiled in the "Russia door" controversy, which has led to a disastrous decline in the already weak US dollar,goldThe market is reproducing the Trump trend. The uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration is still ongoing. Yesterday, Trump once again snatched the spotlight and suddenly ousted the White House liaison who had just taken office for ten days, exacerbating the political chaos in the White House and stimulating market demand for safe haven buying of gold.
　　
The author Su Ye believes that the continued weakness of the US dollar and political turmoil in the United States will help support the strength of gold. In addition, the data in the United States is not encouraging, making the market full of concerns about the outlook for US interest rates. Especially, the slowdown in US salary growth, combined with low inflation, has become an important obstacle for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. In terms of geopolitics, the DPRK launched a new missile late last Friday with an amazing range, and the US, Japan and the ROK reacted violently. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe agreed to the proposal of US President Donald Trump on Monday, and more action needs to be taken towards the north. In the short term, the geopolitical risk of the DPRK further supports the gold price.
　　
On Monday, the Asian gold market showed little fluctuation and remained stable at1265-1271Communal fluctuations, the bullish bullish in this round of gold will definitely not engage in1271Nearby stop, and currently there are no bearish signals in the market. Last week, the author unanimously emphasized that Su Ye still holds this view this week. Radicals with slight pullback space can short positions lightly. Remember that short orders are only looking for pullbacks, and short orders cannot be held for a long time. Going back to the low position this week is still a strategy of laying out long orders. There has been a lot of news this week, so there are many things to pay attention to,PCEPrice indexADPHeavyweight data such as non farm payroll will be released, especially the non farm payroll report. If the performance is poor, hopes for a rebound in the US index may be shattered, especially last week, due to the impact of the Federal Reserve's resolution, economic data, and political uncertainty, the US index as a whole was under pressure and fell, providing impetus for the upward movement of gold. Tuesday will be the first to be releasedPCEThe monthly and annual rates of the price index, as well as the uncertain prospect of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates, provide a comprehensive evaluation of the Fed's policy trends for the market.

　　

Technically speaking, last Friday's strong upward trend among US bulls hit its highest point1270On the front line, the weekly chart ended with a long bullish candlestick with a downward shadow, and the gold price effectively stabilized above the cycle and Bollinger medium track. The weekly chart still showed a bullish trend. The current daily pattern of the Bollinger Bands is with the upper and middle tracks facing upwards, and the lower tracks flattened, with the highest intraday gold price touching1270On the front line, the current moving average also shows a bullish arrangement, with indicatorsmacdJincha continues to operate with high volume and agility indicatorsstoOverbought, so the intraday pattern remains bullish.4From an hourly perspective, currently4Hourly indicatormacdThe secondary golden cross fluctuates at a high level.stoFix the hook downwards. There is a demand for a short-term pullback in gold prices, but currently it is still a bullish trend. Therefore, the author suggests that a pullback in the short term should focus on a bullish trend.
　　
Golden Strategy:
　　
　　1，1263-1265Long, stop loss4Points, target1270-1275；
　　
Last week, the Federal Reserve7The monthly resolution of the dove faction to maintain stability, and the impact of US inflation andGDPThe performance of heavyweight data was poor, suppressing the US dollar from falling to a new low in over a year and causing the euro to break new ground against the US dollar2015year2The euro has reached a monthly high and is currently at a technical level2The high point position within the year. European Central Bank Managing Committee member and Austrian Central Bank Governor Norwotny recently stated that the European Central Bank has begun discussing monetary tightening policies, and reducing the intensity of monetary stimulus would be reasonable. A decision will be made this autumn. The real economic growth in the eurozone is on the rise, but the inflation rate is still far from the central bank's target. From this, it can be seen that negative interest rates are necessary for a period of time, but the problem is that negative interest rates may distort the market and may be a dangerous phenomenon.
　　
Analysis of European and American technical aspects:

　　

Yesterday, Europe and America also completed the final closing of the monthly line, which can be said that the European and American markets7The month completed a very important breaking action, and the market opened slightly lower at the beginning of the month1.14107After the position of the market, the market will first step back and provide feedback1.13009After the position, the market began to rise, and after breaking through the intraday limit, the downward trend line of the cycle approached the consolidation of the box. At the same time, it was also the main reason for the decline of Fibonacci in this round of major cycles38.2Pressure point, followed by a sharp decline in the US dollar index, which stimulated the market to break through the box high point, reaching its highest point1.18473After the position is sorted out, the monthly line is finally closed1.18394The market ended with a long bearish candlestick, which effectively broke through cyclical pressure. The long-term bullish form of the euro took shape, and in terms of operation, today's market rebounded1.17700Multiple, stop loss1.17500Look at the target above1.18500, take a break to see1.19000and1.19500。
　　
Europe and America: Today's market rebounds1.17700Multiple, stop loss1.17500Look at the target above1.18500, take a break to see1.19000and1.19500
　　
Analysis of US and Japanese technical aspects:

　　

In yesterday's Asian market, the US dollar index rebounded after experiencing last week's sharp decline, and non US currencies also generally felt pressure. However, due to the interference of unexpected geopolitical events, the overall performance of the Japanese yen was strong, and investors still need to be cautious of the resurgence of risk aversion. This week, the arrival of non farm farming has brought significant resistance to the rise of the US dollar. But before the release of non-agricultural data, everyone should not act rashly. From a technical perspective, the daily chart shows that the exchange rate repeatedly crosses around the moving average system, and the overall overall trend of the market is still continuing.4The hour chart shows that the resistance at the Dow high point is still far away112.40After a short-term continuous decline,MACDShow that bearish momentum has regained its advantage. stay1hourKOn the line graph, it can be seen that the trend of continuous decline is very obvious, and from the graph, it can also be seen that the high level continues to decrease, indicating that the high level pressure is relatively strong. Therefore, it is recommended for intraday trading to choose short selling and stop loss near the high level trend line110.90, Objective109.00。
　　Wen/Su Ye's Discussion on Gold reform lxr1489