Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month9day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

9

day

Focus this week:
8month8day(Tuesday)
U.S.A6Monthly Consumer Credit
United States7monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A6monthJOLTS职位空缺数

8month9day(Wednesday)
美国第二季非农单位劳工成本初值
美国第二季生产率初值
U.S.A6月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A6月批发销售月率修订

8month10day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A7Monthly final demandPP
U.S.A7Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A7Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

8month11day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly federal budget
U.S.A7monthCPI
U.S.A7Monthly CoreCPI
U.S.A7Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week


Important economic data released today:    
19：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Market Index‧Previous value406.6
19：00Last week in the United StatesMBAMortgage Refinancing Index‧Previous value1,361.0
20：15Canada7Monthly housing construction annual rate‧forecast20.5010000 households‧Previous value21.2710000 households
20：30Canada6Monthly building permit rate‧forecast-2.0%‧Previous value+8.9%
20：30美国第二季非农单位劳工成本初值‧forecast+1.2%‧Previous value+2.2%
20：30美国第二季生产率初值‧forecast+0.7%‧Front value remains unchanged
22：00U.S.A6月批发库存月率修订‧forecast+0.6%‧Previous value+0.6%
22：00U.S.A6月批发销售月率修订‧forecast+0.1%‧Previous value-0.5%


News of the Week
圣路易斯联储总裁：美国通胀上行压力小，美联储近期无需升息

U.S.A6Monthly increase in consumer credit124USD100mn
China7Monthly Consumer Price Index(CPI)Year-on-year increase1.4%
China7monthCPIMonth on month increase0.1%
China7monthPPIMonth on month increase0.2%
China7Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)Year-on-year increase5.5%

中国四川省偏远山区发生地震
特朗普严词警告朝鲜勿再威胁美国；朝鲜称认真考虑打击关岛计划


8month8day
LondongoldMorning order price:1261.45
London gold afternoon fixing price:1261.80


Today's Introduction
北韩扬言导弹打击关岛，回应特朗普的“火与怒”

北韩周三称，考虑导弹打击关岛。数小时之前，美国总统特朗普对朝鲜称，对美国构成的任何威胁都将招致“火与怒”。北韩军方一发言人通过朝鲜中央通讯社发表声明称，一旦金正恩下令，将可在任何时候实施该计划。北韩在另一份声明中并指责美国打算发动“预防性战争”，将以包括打击美国本土的全面战争予以应对。美国政府已警告称，准备好在必要时动用武力，阻止朝鲜的弹道导弹与核武计划，但该国更愿意通过制裁等全球外交行动解决问题。特朗普讲话后，美国股市小幅收低，受到普遍追踪的股市恐慌指数收于近一个月来最高。在朝鲜做出回应后，美元指数微跌，避险货币日圆兑美元走强。亚洲股市下跌，韩股综合股价指数(KOSPI)和日股日经指数均下跌0.5%。周三是美军原子弹轰炸长崎72周年纪念日。自朝鲜去年进行两次核试验以及今年7月进行两次洲际弹道导弹试验以来，该地区紧张局势已经升温。日本航空自卫队称，周二在靠近朝鲜半岛的日本领空与美军超音速轰炸机进行了联合军演。一名美国官员称，周一两架美国B-1轰炸机从关岛起飞，飞过朝鲜半岛上空。这突显了关岛的战略重要性。关岛受到美国最近在韩国部署的萨德反导弹系统的保护，也是日本和韩国游客的热门旅游地。关岛美军基地公共事务部门称，截至周三上午关岛安德森空军基地的警戒等级没有改变。



XAU London Gold - 美国与北韩紧张局势升级，金价重新上扬

金价周三上涨，因北韩威胁打击美国关岛，以此响应美国总统特朗普发出的警告，从而加剧了两国之间的紧张局势。原先于周二晚美元在美国经济数据的提振下走强，但涨势很快因特朗普针对北韩的警告而逆转。北韩周三称其正在考虑导弹打击美国太平洋领地关岛的计划，而就在数小时前，特朗普警告若北韩威胁到美国，将招致“怒火与打击”。地缘政治风险通常提振市场对黄金等避险资产的需求。另外，投资者亦正在等待本周稍后美国将公布的通胀数据，以寻找美联储何时缩表的线索。

图表走势，金价过去三个交易日止住跌势于50天平均线，并随着RSI及随机抋回弹，支撑金价的反扑势头。预计向上阻力将挑战上周高位1273.97美元，较大阻力料为1289and1301美元。下方支撑回看1258，50The current position of the balance moving average1250则为另一参考。

        
London Gold8month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1258– 1273
Resistance level:1289– 1301
Support bit:1244– 1236


SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month10Day - 832.39ton
7month11Day - 832.39ton
7month12Day - 832.39ton
7month13Day - 828.84ton
7month14Day - 828.84ton
7month17Day - 827.07ton
7month18Day - 821.45ton
7month19Day - 816.13ton
7month20Day - 816.13ton
7month21Day - 813.76ton
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton
8month7Day - 786.87ton
8month8Day - 786.87ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
8Monthly goldoptionDue date:7month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6(+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - 银价止跌回稳

伦敦白银方面，同样相对强弱指数及随机指数均见回升，银价或尚见反扑倾向。预计下方支持为16.30and16.00The key is to explore the US dollar15.70美元。至于向上阻力预估16.70and100Balance moving average16.98Next level can be seen in17.90USD.      


         
London Silver8month9day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30– 16.70
Resistance level:17.00- 17.90
Support bit:16.00– 15.70
                                                        

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
7month17Day - 10855.49ton
7month18Day - 10826.08ton
7month19Day - 10826.08ton
7month20Day - 10796.67ton
7month21Day - 10796.67ton
7month24Day - 10752.56ton
7month25Day - 10693.75ton
7month26Day - 10693.75ton
7month27Day - 10693.75ton
7month28Day - 10658.47ton
7month31Day - 10629.07ton
8month1Day - 10629.07ton
8month2Day - 10592.33ton
8month3Day - 10592.33ton
8month4Day - 10562.93ton
8month7Day - 10562.93ton
8month8Day - 10530.59ton



EUR euro - 欧元败走1.20Gateway

since2015year1月至今，欧元走出了一组三底型态，因此欧元后市若仍可稳企于1.17水平颈线上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。下一级阻力预料为1.19The key will directly point to1.20关口。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2060and1.2170水平。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域呈初步回落，需留意汇价在未能进一步闯过1.20关口的情况下，或会先作出回调盘整。若果以6month20Daily low1.1117至本轮涨势的暂见高位1.1909Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%The callback amplitude is1.1600and1.1510Horizontal.

        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1900 –1.2000 –1.2060 –1.2170
support1.1700 - 1.1600 –1.1510


Focus:
8month9day(three): Italy6Monthly industrial production
8month10day(four): France6Monthly industrial production rate‧Italy6Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance
8month11day(five): Germany7monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧France7monthHICPFinal value‧Italy7monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value


Related news
Germany6月经季节调整出口较前月减少2.8%
Germany6月经季节调整贸易顺差为212100 million euros
Germany6月经季节调整进口较前月减少4.5%
Germany6月未经季节调整出口较上年同期增长0.7%Imports increased compared to the same period last year3.6%
Germany6The current account surplus of menstruation is236100 million euros
France6月贸易逆差略微扩大至47100 million euros



JPY yen - 日圆兑美元触及八周高位，受北韩紧张局势影响

汇市弥漫避险情绪，美元兑日圆走软，日圆在地缘政治紧张时期经常受到追捧。美元兑日圆跌至6month15Daily low point109.70水平下方。朝鲜周三表示，正在“仔细检查”以导弹打击关岛的计划。数小时之前，美国总统特朗普对朝鲜称，对美国构成的任何威胁都将招致“火与怒”。

技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数仍处下行，示意汇价尚处弱势。双顶型态走势仍是清晰体现着，两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49, failed to break through114.50的阻力下，过去一个月汇价维持下行。当前支撑在上周稳守着的109.80，若此趟终可确切跌破，将更为确认美元兑日圆下行趋势的延续。另外，双顶型态的颈线位置，亦即6month14day108.81, will be another key level, the next level is108To the extent that107.20. Keep paying attention upwards114.50Horizontal, for closer resistance, refer to25Balance moving average111.80and113.60Horizontal.
        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance111.80 –113.60 –114.50*
support109.80 –108.80 –108.00


Focus:
8month10day(four): Japan7Monthly Domestic Enterprise Price Index‧Japan6月核心机械订单‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks


Related news
Japan6Monthly unadjusted current account surplus9,346Billion yen
Japan7monthM3货币供应额较上年同期增长3.4%



GBP pound - 英镑掉头回落，短线弱势依然

图表走势所见，近月英镑兑美元持续反复上扬，并形成了一道上升趋向线，至今位于1.3070水平，技术上需慎防若本周明确失守此区，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，反映汇价作进一步下跌的机会较。向下延伸支持将参考50The current position of the balance moving average1.2920and1.28水平。反之，若可企稳趋向线上方并继续冲高，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Other resistance can be referred to1.35Horizontal.        

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3230 –1.3500 –1.3655
support1.3040 –1.2915 - 1.2800 –1.2720
                                                                        

Focus:
8month10day(four): UK6月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡


CHF Swiss franc - 北韩局势升温，追捧避险货币

北韩最新一轮地缘政治紧张局势令市场转向避险模式，瑞郎周三跳升。美元兑瑞郎急挫至接近0.96水平，逆转此前连续两周升势。北韩周三称，考虑导弹打击关岛。数小时之前，美国总统特朗普对朝鲜称，对美国构成的任何威胁都将招致“火与怒”(fire and fury)。北韩军方一发言人通过朝鲜中央通讯社发表声明称，一旦金正恩下令，将可在任何时候实施该计划。北韩在另一份声明中并指责美国打算发动“预防性战争”，将以包括打击美国本土的全面战争予以应对。美国政府已警告称，准备好在必要时动用武力，阻止朝鲜的弹道导弹与核武计划，但该国更愿意通过制裁等全球外交行动解决问题。

美元兑瑞郎周二曾升见至0.9772的两个月高位，但周三的下挫扭转了过去两周持续反弹的路径，并促使RSI及随机指数掉头回落，预示美元仍有机会延伸跌势。若果以近一轮的累计涨幅计算，50%and61.8%的回调水平将为0.9605and0.9565，较大支持则可会看至0.9430及以至参考2015year8Monthly low0.9251。至于上方阻力则为0.9720and0.9810To the next level250Balance moving average0.99Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9720 - 0.9810 –0.9900*
support0.9605 - 0.9565 –0.9430 - 0.9251


Related news
Switzerland7月经调整的失业率为3.2%
Switzerland7月未经调整的失业率为3.0%


AUD AUD - 澳洲呈初步调整

澳元周三承压，因围绕朝鲜问题的紧张局势复起。澳元兑美元一度触及三周低点。朝鲜称正在“仔细检查”以导弹打击关岛的计划。数小时之前，美国总统特朗普对朝鲜称，对美国构成的任何威胁都将招致“怒火与打击”。避险情绪盖过了铁矿石和煤炭等澳洲主要大宗商品价格的大幅涨势。运往中国青岛港的铁矿石价格周一触及4The highest level since the beginning of the month.

As seen in the technical chart, from2016Since the third quarter of the year, the exchange rate trend has outlined a set of head, shoulder, and bottom patterns, with the neckline positioned at0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头。以右肩的深度450Point calculation, technology extension goals can be seen0.8230; If the amplitude of the head shape620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it50Monthly average line0.8070。然而，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数已出现回调，估计澳元短期先作调整的机会较大，下方支持回看25Balance moving average0.78The larger supporting material is0.7710and0.7640Horizontal.


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8000 –0.8070 –0.8230
support0.7800 - 0.7720 - 0.7640
                                                                

Related news
NAB: Australia7月企业现况指数升至正15
NAB: Australia7月企业信心指数升至正12
Australia6月经季节调整的房屋融资增长0.5%
Australia8monthWESTPAC-MIConsumer confidence index declining1.2%to95.5


NZD New Zealand dollars - 纽元触及三周低位，关注央行政策决议

纽元继续下跌，兑美元触及三周低点0.7309美元。尽管纽元近日趋软，但今年以来累计仍涨逾5%，7月曾创下0.7557USD26个月高位。纽元自上周以来处于守势，静待新西兰央行本周四公布政策决议。外界普遍预期该央行将维持利率于纪录低点1.75%不变；但外界担心新西兰央行将设法压制本币并趋于更鸽派立场，强化低利率的必要。

As shown in the chart, both the relative strength index and the random index have rebounded, whileMACDThe pointer has also fallen the signal line, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar is beginning to experience a correction correction correction against the US dollar. Below is an estimate supported by25Balance moving average0.7360and0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7570If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745and0.78Horizontal.
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7500 - 0.7550 - 0.7745
support0.7130 –0.7000 - 0.6800/40


Focus:
8month10day(four)：新西兰央行利率决定‧New Zealand7月电子卡零售销售
8month11day(five): New Zealand7月制造业表现指数‧食品价格指数月率


CAD Cad - 加元破位不果陷回调

美元兑加元走势，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至近日似乎在1.24止住了跌势，而RSI及随机指数亦已见有回升迹象；故此短线汇价或可望先作回稳，上方阻力回看1.2590and25Balance moving average1.2720. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940水平。反之，若果后市下破1.24这个当前的关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2590 - 1.2720 - 1.2940
support1.2400* –1.2175 –1.2000


Focus:   
8month9day(three): Canada7Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada6Monthly building permit rate
8month10day(four): Canada6Monthly New Housing Price Index



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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)