Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month8day (foreign exchange)

Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month8day (foreign exchange)

EUR euro - 欧元败走1.20Gateway

目前市场价格显示，美联储2017年再次升息的机率不到50%，而美联储决策官员的谈话周一并未明显改变投资人的心意。圣路易斯联储总裁布拉德称，美联储可以暂时维持利率不变，因为即便就业市场持续好转，但通胀不太可能上升很多。明尼亚波利斯联储总裁卡什卡利则是说到目前通胀低于目标。然而，布拉德及卡什卡利的鸽派形象，市场人士可能不会那么看重他们的评论。美国周四及周五将分别公布7月生产者物价及消费者物价指数，料将吸引更多关注，协助投资人分析就业市场趋紧对通胀的影响程度。投资人亦关注美联储何时开始缩表的线索。

since2015year1月至今，欧元走出了一组三底型态，因此欧元后市若仍可稳企于1.17水平颈线上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。下一级阻力预料为1.19The key will directly point to1.20关口。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2060and1.2170水平。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数已自超买区域呈初步回落，需留意汇价在未能进一步闯过1.20关口的情况下，或会先作出回调盘整，较近支持先看9Balance moving average1.1780。若果以6month20Daily low1.1117至本轮涨势的暂见高位1.1909Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%The callback amplitude is1.1600and1.1510Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 1.1900 – 1.2000 – 1.2060 – 1.2170

support 1.1780 - 1.1700 - 1.1600 – 1.1510

Focus:

8month9day(three): Italy6Monthly industrial production

8month10day(four): France6Monthly industrial production rate‧Italy6Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance

8month11day(five): Germany7monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧France7monthHICPFinal value‧Italy7monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value

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Germany6月经季节调整出口较前月减少2.8%

Germany6月经季节调整贸易顺差为212100 million euros

Germany6月经季节调整进口较前月减少4.5%

Germany6月未经季节调整出口较上年同期增长0.7%Imports increased compared to the same period last year3.6%

Germany6The current account surplus of menstruation is236100 million euros

France6月贸易逆差略微扩大至47100 million euros

JPY yen - 美元弱势暂缓，还看通胀数据

利率市场目前预期美联储在年底前再度加息的概率低于50%，部分原因是近期物价增速未能达到美联储所设定的2%通胀目标。在今年年初攀升至美联储2%的目标后，美国消费物价指数(CPI)和不包括食品和能源的核心CPI数据最近几个月持续出现大幅下跌，其中未经季节调整的核心CPI年率由一月时的2.3%，至五月及六月仅有1.7%，而目前市场预期七月份数字亦维持于1.7%。近年来市场对通胀率的关注度已明显提高，因为这或会改变美联储对是否进一步加息的看法。在上周五优于预期的非农数据公布后，美元终见止跌回稳，结束此前的连续三周下挫，但美元能否延续反弹，则还看将于本周五公布的通胀报告。

美元兑日圆周五跌见至109.82，创一个半月低位。技术图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数仍处下行，示意汇价尚处弱势。双顶型态走势仍是清晰体现着，两个顶部分别为5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49, failed to break through114.50的阻力下，过去一个月汇价维持下行。当前支撑在上周稳守着的109.80，若此趟终可确切跌破，将更为确认美元兑日圆下行趋势的延续。另外，双顶型态的颈线位置，亦即6month14day108.81, will be another key level, the next level is108To the extent that107.20. Keep paying attention upwards114.50Horizontal, for closer resistance, refer to25Balance moving average111.80and113.60Horizontal.

  

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 112.50 – 113.60 – 115.00*

support 110.20 – 108.80 – 108.00

Focus:

8month10day(four): Japan7Monthly Domestic Enterprise Price Index‧Japan6月核心机械订单‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks

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Japan6Monthly unadjusted current account surplus9,346Billion yen

GBP pound - 英镑掉头回落，短线弱势依然

According to data released on Tuesday, the UK7月零售销售增长放缓，因购物者削减非必要支出，将预算花在英退公投后价格上涨的食品方面。另外，虽然英国央行决策官员上周试图释出利率可能上升的讯息，但市场选择将焦点放在该行以6-2的票数维持利率不变，之前一次会议表决结果则为5-3，另外市场也聚焦于该行下修成长及通胀预估。

图表走势所见，近月英镑兑美元持续反复上扬，并形成了一道上升趋向线，至今位于1.3070水平，技术上需慎防若本周明确失守此区，料英镑将出现较具规模的调整。同时，MACD已初步跌破讯号线，反映汇价作进一步下跌的机会较。向下延伸支持将参考50The current position of the balance moving average1.2920and1.28水平。反之，若可企稳趋向线上方并继续冲高，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Other resistance can be referred to1.35Horizontal.   

   

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 1.3230 – 1.3500 – 1.3655

support 1.3040 – 1.2915 - 1.2800 – 1.2720

Focus:

8month10day(four): UK6月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

CHF Swiss franc - 瑞郎处于回调阶段

美元兑瑞郎方面，支持位料在25Balance moving average0.9620and0.9440If there is significant support, you can refer to it2015year8Monthly low0.9251To the extent that0.9150Horizontal. As for the resistance above, it is0.9810To the next level250Balance moving average0.99To the extent that1.00Horizontal.

   

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 0.9810 - 0.9900 – 1.000

support 0.9620 - 0.9440 – 0.9251

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Switzerland7月经调整的失业率为3.2%

Switzerland7月未经调整的失业率为3.0%

AUD AUD - 澳洲呈初步调整

Australia7月企业现况指数升至2008年初以来最高，企业营收与获利保持强劲，同时企业更加相信这种良好状况还能持续一段时间。澳洲国民银行(NAB)对超过400According to monthly surveys of companies,7月企业现况指数上升1Point to point15，是长期均值正5的三倍。7月企业信心指数跳升4Point to point12，回到全球金融危机前的水平。7月的企业销售指数小跌1点至仍算强劲的正20，企业获利指数上升4Point to point18。就业指数持稳于正7，再度高于均值。NAB表示，该调查结果与每年约创造就业岗位24万个或每月约2万个相一致，这足以让失业率从当前水平5.5%下降。

As seen in the technical chart, from2016Since the third quarter of the year, the exchange rate trend has outlined a set of head, shoulder, and bottom patterns, with the neckline positioned at0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头。以右肩的深度450Point calculation, technology extension goals can be seen0.8230; If the amplitude of the head shape620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it50Monthly average line0.8070。然而，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数已出现回调，估计澳元短期先作调整的机会较大，下方支持回看25Balance moving average0.78The larger supporting material is0.7710and0.7640Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 0.8000 – 0.8070 – 0.8230

support 0.7800 - 0.7720 - 0.7640

                                                               

Related news

NAB: Australia7月企业现况指数升至正15

NAB: Australia7月企业信心指数升至正12

Focus:

8month9day(three): Australia8月消费者信心指数月率‧房屋融资月率‧Investment oriented housing financing

NZD New Zealand dollars - 关注央行利率决议

纽元周一跌见至三周低点，投资者担忧新西兰央行在本周评估政策时会转为更加鸽派立场，因此纷纷解除纽元的多仓。新西兰央行几乎肯定将在周四维持指针利率在1.75%的纪录低位不变，考虑到目前通胀疲弱，分析师猜测央行届时将强调保持低利率的必要性。纽元兑美元周一最低跌至0.7348USD.

As shown in the chart, both the relative strength index and the random index have rebounded, whileMACDThe pointer has also fallen the signal line, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar is beginning to experience a correction correction correction against the US dollar. Below is an estimate supported by25Balance moving average0.7360and0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7570If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745and0.78Horizontal.

      

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 0.7500 - 0.7550 - 0.7745

support 0.7130 – 0.7000 - 0.6800/40

Focus:

8month10day(four)：新西兰央行利率决定‧New Zealand7月电子卡零售销售

8month11day(five): New Zealand7月制造业表现指数‧食品价格指数月率

CAD Cad - 加元破位不果陷回调

美元兑加元走势，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至近日似乎在1.24止住了跌势，而RSI及随机指数亦已见有回升迹象；故此短线汇价或可望先作回稳，上方阻力回看1.2590and25Balance moving average1.2720. withgold比率计算，38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940水平。反之，若果后市下破1.24这个当前的关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

Estimated wave amplitude:

resistance 1.2590 - 1.2720 - 1.2940

support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000

Focus:   

8month4day(five): Canada7Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧trade balance‧Export‧Import‧Ivey PMI

8month9day(three): Canada7Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada6Monthly building permit rate

8month10day(four): Canada6Monthly New Housing Price Index

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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department

(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)