Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month7day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

7

day

Focus this week:
8month7day(Monday)
U.S.A7Monthly employment trend index

8month8day(Tuesday)
U.S.A6Monthly Consumer Credit
United States7monthNFIBSmall Business Confidence Index
U.S.A6monthJOLTS职位空缺数

8month9day(Wednesday)
美国第二季非农单位劳工成本初值
美国第二季生产率初值
U.S.A6月批发库存月率修订
U.S.A6月批发销售月率修订

8month10day(Thursday)
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
Four week average in the United States
Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits
U.S.A7Monthly final demandPP
U.S.A7Monthly deduction of final demand for food and energyPPI
U.S.A7Monthly deduction of final demand for food, energy, and tradePPI

8month11day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly federal budget
U.S.A7monthCPI
U.S.A7Monthly CoreCPI
U.S.A7Monthly average monthly rate of actual income per week



Important economic data released today:
07：30Australia7monthAIG建筑业指数‧Previous value56.0
07：50Japan7end of the monthforeign exchangereserve‧Previous value12,498Billion
09：30Australia7月整体招聘广告月率‧Previous value+3%
14：00Germany6Monthly industrial production rate‧forecast+3.4%‧Previous value+1.2%
15：15Switzerland7Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Monthly rate‧Previous value-0.1%
15：15Switzerland7Monthly consumer price index(CPI)the annual rate‧Previous value+0.2%
15：30britain7monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧Previous value-1.0%
15：30UK as of7Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index‧Previous value+2.6%
16：30eurozone8monthSentixInvestor confidence index‧Front value positive28.3
22：00U.S.A7Monthly employment trend index‧Previous value133.1

8month8day(Tuesday)
03：00U.S.A6Monthly Consumer Credit‧Forecast increase139.0Billion‧Previous value increase184.1Billion



8month4day
LondongoldMorning order price:1269.30
London gold afternoon fixing price:1257.70



XAU London Gold - 美元绝地反击，金银承压回挫

美元上周持续承压，华府再陷政治动荡局面，而且美国经济数据也多数不尽如人意，加剧了未来美国联邦储备理事会(FED)政策收紧步伐的不确定性。根据CME GroupofFedWatch工具，美国联邦基金利率futures显示，交易商预计美联储12月升息的机率约为44%。美元指数周三曾跌至15Month low92.548。在特朗普当选后的两个月，美元一度攀升至14年高位，因市场认为特朗普的政策将提振增长和通胀率。不过自此后美元下跌了逾10%，因投资者担心特朗普是否有能力推进其竞选承诺。美国周五公布数据显示，7月非农就业职位增加20.9万个，高于预估的18.3万个；失业率为4.3%；平均薪资增长0.3%，薪资也上涨，表明劳动力市场供应紧张。数据公布后美元强势反弹，美指一度涨见至全周高位93.77，尾盘报93.49；金价则回挫至最低1254美元。迎来本周，经济数据相当密集，包括多国将发布CPI等数据；另外，美国多位地区联储总裁将出席不同活动并发表讲话，新西兰央行还将召开会议。

London gold trend, since7month10The day bottomed out at1204.45美元后，金价持续反复走高，至周二升上1273.97美元的六周高位，并形成一上升通道，下底目前位于1267美元，若然本周金价仍然居于此区下方，短期或会延续回调趋势。同时，价位走势已经与RSI及随机指数出现背驰状态，亦加大了调整的机会。若以此轮累计涨幅计算，23.6%的调整为1257.5USD,38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1247and1239USD, extended to61.8%Then in the1231水平。至于向上阻力则预估在1275And the top of the channel1287The US dollar, the key will directly point to1300The US dollar barrier.

London Gold8month7 – 11Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:1269– 1281 – 1301 – 1321
Support bit:1247– 1240 – 1220 – 1212

London Gold8month7day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1243– 1261
Resistance level:1277– 1284 – 1293
Support bit:1234– 1227 – 1220

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month10Day - 832.39ton
7month11Day - 832.39ton
7month12Day - 832.39ton
7month13Day - 828.84ton
7month14Day - 828.84ton
7month17Day - 827.07ton
7month18Day - 821.45ton
7month19Day - 816.13ton
7month20Day - 816.13ton
7month21Day - 813.76ton
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton
8month3Day - 791.88ton
8month4Day - 787.14ton

8Maturity date of monthly gold futures:8month29day
8Monthly goldoptionDue date:7month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6(+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton



XAG London Silver - Silver price exploration50MA

伦敦白银方面，从图表所见，倘若银价未能企稳于50Balance moving average16.59美元之上，恐防银价将展现较具规模之调整，六月份银价已曾上探此指标而未为突破。预计下方支持为25Balance moving average16.22and15.90The key is to explore the US dollar15美元关口。至于向上阻力预估16.90and250Balance moving average17.37美元，较大阻力将参考6Monthly high17.75USD.

London Silver8month7 – 11Daily predicted wave amplitude:
Resistance level:16.60– 17.20 – 17.90 – 18.40
Support bit:15.80– 15.60 – 14.80 – 14.20

London Silver8month7day
Predicting early wave amplitude:15.70– 16.40
Resistance level:16.90– 17.20 – 17.60
Support bit:15.10– 14.80 – 14.50

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
7month17Day - 10855.49ton
7month18Day - 10826.08ton
7month19Day - 10826.08ton
7month20Day - 10796.67ton
7month21Day - 10796.67ton
7month24Day - 10752.56ton
7month25Day - 10693.75ton
7month26Day - 10693.75ton
7month27Day - 10693.75ton
7month28Day - 10658.47ton
7month31Day - 10629.07ton
8month1Day - 10629.07ton
8month2Day - 10592.33ton
8month3Day - 10592.33ton
8month4Day - 10562.93ton



EUR euro - 败走1.20Gateway

As seen in the chart trend, since2015year1Since the beginning of the month, the euro has emerged from a triple bottom pattern, with three bottoms:2015year3Of1.0456，2015year12Of1.0538, and this year1Of1.0339Therefore, the euro can stabilize at1.17水平这道颈线上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。下一级阻力预料为1.19The key will directly point to1.20关口。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2060and1.2170水平。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数已处于高至90水平上方的严重超买区域，需留意价位越接近1.20这个重要心理关口前，出现回调的机率亦会随之加大。若果以6month20Daily low1.1117至本轮涨势的暂见高位1.1909Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%The callback amplitude is1.1600and1.1510Horizontal.

Focus:
8month7day(one): Germany6Monthly industrial production rate‧eurozone8monthSentixInvestor confidence index
8month8day(two): Germany6Monthly export rate‧进口月率‧trade balance‧France6Monthly budget balance‧流动帐‧trade balance‧进口出口
8month9day(three): Italy6Monthly industrial production
8month10day(four): France6Monthly industrial production rate‧Italy6Monthly trade balance with the European Union‧Global trade balance
8month11day(five): Germany7monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value‧France7monthHICPFinal value‧Italy7monthCPIFinal value‧HICPFinal value
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.1900 –1.2000 –1.2060 –1.2170
support1.1700 –1.1600 –1.1510



JPY yen - 双顶下行

As seen in the technical chart,MACDFalling below the signal line, relative strength indicators and random indices are still declining, indicating that the exchange rate is still weak. The trend of the double top pattern is still clearly reflected, with the two tops being5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49, failed to break through114.50Under the resistance, the road has been declining for the past two weeks. Currently supported by250The Tianping moving average, previously in June and April, also experienced a decline in exchange rates250The Tianping moving average has not been clearly broken below, and there has been a strong rebound since then. Therefore, if this trip can eventually fall below the current position110.20of250The Tianping moving average will further confirm the continuation of the downward trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. In addition, the neckline position of the bipedal form, i.e6month14day108.81, will be another key level, the next level is108. Keep paying attention upwards114.50Horizontal, for closer resistance, refer to25Balance moving average112.50and113.60This can be seen as a suitable area for re establishing short positions in the US dollar, breaking through115Stop loss at the checkpoint.

Focus:
8month7day(one): Japan7月末外汇储备
8month8day(two): Japan7Monthly Service Industry Prosperity Index‧银行放款余额年率‧Japan6月流动帐平衡
8month10day(four): Japan7Monthly Domestic Enterprise Price Index‧Japan6月核心机械订单‧Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance112.50 –113.60 –115.00*
support110.20 –108.80 –108.00




GBP pound - 跌破趋向线，调整压力加剧

英国央行上周四维持利率不变，调降了对经济成长和薪资的预测，同时还警告退欧正在打压经济。不过，央行总裁卡尼和他的同僚向金融市场重申，未来三年加息次数或比投资者预期的稍多，可能一年内就会开始加息。央行称，在未来的预测期限内，货币政策收紧的幅度，或需要比8月预测中收益率曲线暗示的幅度来的更大。但是，未来两年经济前景更加黯淡，加上英国还面临退欧挑战，使得市场进一步降低对英国央行接近10年来首次升息的预期。利率期货走势显示，投资者已将其预期英国央行升息的时间推迟四个月至明年12Month.

近月英镑走势持续反复上扬，并形成了一道上升趋向线，至今位于1.3060Technically, caution should be taken in the future. If this area is clearly lost, there is expected to be a significant adjustment in the pound. Below is a larger support reference50The current position of the balance moving average1.2920and1.28水平。反之，若可企稳趋向线上方并继续冲高，以去年6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Other resistance can be referred to1.35and100Weekly moving average1.3540Horizontal.

Focus:
8month7day(one): UK7monthHalifaxMonthly rate of housing price index‧by7Three months of the monthHalifaxAnnual rate of housing price index
8month10day(four): UK6月建筑业产出‧industrial production ‧Manufacturing output‧对非欧盟地区贸易平衡‧全球商品贸易平衡

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.3230 –1.3500 –1.3655
support1.3040 –1.2915 –1.2800 –1.2720



CHF Swiss franc - 维持走强

In terms of USD/CHF, USD/CHF will continue to be weak, and the next target will be towards last year5Monthly low0.9440If there is significant support, you can refer to it2015year8Monthly low0.9251To the extent that0.9150Horizontal. As for the resistance above, it is10Balance moving average0.9635and0.9810To the next level100Balance moving average0.9860Horizontal.

Focus:
8month7day(one)Switzerland7monthCPI
8month8day(two)Switzerland7Monthly unemployment rate   

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.9635 –0.9810 –0.9860
support0.9440 –0.9251 –0.9150




AUD AUD - 澳洲央行对经济增速看法乐观

澳洲央行再度看好经济前景，令澳元获得些许支撑；该行预估未来两年经济成长率将加速至3%左右。央行警告澳元持续升值将对经济前景构成威胁，但认为当前水平不致构成重大拖累。技术图表所见，自2016Since the third quarter of the year, the exchange rate trend has outlined a set of head, shoulder, and bottom patterns, with the neckline positioned at0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头。以右肩的深度450Point calculation, technology extension goals can be seen0.8230; If the amplitude of the head shape620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it50Monthly average line0.8070。然而，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数已出现回调，估计澳元短期先作调整的机会较大，下方支持回看25Balance moving average0.78The larger supporting material is0.7710and0.7640Horizontal.

Focus:
8month7day(one): Australia7monthAIG建筑业指数‧整体招聘广告
8month8day(two): Australia7monthNABEnterprise Status Index‧NABCorporate confidence index
8month9day(three): Australia8月消费者信心指数月率‧房屋融资月率‧Investment oriented housing financing

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.8000 –0.8070 –0.8230
support0.7800 –0.7720 –0.7640



NZD New Zealand dollars - 薪资数据低迷，纽元延续调整

As shown in the chart, both the relative strength index and the random index have rebounded, whileMACDThe pointer has also fallen the signal line, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar is beginning to experience a correction correction correction against the US dollar. Below is an estimate supported by25Balance moving average0.7360and0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7570If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745and0.78Horizontal.

Focus:
8month10day(four)：新西兰央行利率决定‧New Zealand7月电子卡零售销售
8month11day(five): New Zealand7月制造业表现指数‧食品价格指数月率
        
Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance0.7500 –0.7550 –0.7745
support0.7130 –0.7000 –0.6800/40




CAD Cad - 中美贸易摩擦担忧打击商品货币

美元兑加元走势，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至近日似乎在1.24止住了跌势，而RSI及随机指数亦已见有回升迹象；故此短线汇价或可望先作回稳，上方阻力回看1.2590and25Balance moving average1.2720. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940水平。反之，若果后市下破1.24这个当前的关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。

Focus:
8month4day(five): Canada7Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧trade balance‧Export‧Import‧IveyPMI
8month9day(three): Canada7Monthly housing construction annual rate‧Canada6Monthly building permit rate
8month10day(four): Canada6Monthly New Housing Price Index

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance1.2590 –1.2720 –1.2940
support1.2400* –1.2175 –1.2000


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)