Crossing the Sea 2017year 8month3day

Crossing the Sea

2017

year

8

month

3

day

Focus this week:
8month3day(Thursday)
U.S.A7monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs
Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States
U.S.A7monthMarkitcomprehensivePMIFinal value
U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIFinal value
U.S.A6Monthly factory order rate
U.S.A6Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision
U.S.A7monthISMNon manufacturing index

8month4day(Friday)
U.S.A7Monthly non-agricultural employment positions
U.S.A7Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A7Monthly average hourly rate
U.S.A7Monthly labor force employment participation rate
U.S.A6Revised monthly commodity trade balance
U.S.A6Dallas Federal ReservePCEPrice index truncated mean


Important economic data released today:        
19：00 britain8Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution‧forecast0.25%‧Previous value0.25%
19：00 britain8月量化宽松规模(pound)‧forecast4,350Billion‧Previous value4,350Billion
19：00 britain8月货币政策委员会(MPC)Voting results(升息-unchanged-Interest rate reduction)‧forecast2-6-0‧Previous value3-5-0
19：30 U.S.A7monthChallengerBusiness plan layoffs‧Previous value31,105individual
20：30 Number of weekly initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States(7month29Day and Week)‧forecast24.2ten thousand people‧Previous value24.4ten thousand people
20：30 Four week average in the United States(7month29Day and Week)‧Previous value24.4ten thousand people
20：30 Number of Americans reapplying for unemployment benefits(7month22Day and Week)‧forecast195.5ten thousand people‧Previous value196.4ten thousand people
21：45 U.S.A7monthMarkitComprehensive Purchasing Manager Index(PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.2
21：45 U.S.A7monthMarkitCIPS services PMI (PMI)Final value‧Previous value54.2
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly factory order rate‧forecast+2.9%‧Previous value-0.8%
22：00 U.S.A6月扣除运输的工厂订单月率‧Previous value-0.3%
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly Durable Goods Order Monthly Rate Revision‧Previous value+6.5%
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly rate of durable goods orders deducted from transportation‧Previous value+0.2%  
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly deduction of durable goods orders for national defense‧Previous value+6.7%  
22：00 U.S.A6Monthly deduction of non defense capital financial orders for aircraft‧Previous value-0.1%  
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Non manufacturing index‧forecast57.0‧Previous value57.4
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)商业活动分项指数‧forecast59.6‧Previous value60.8
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Employment sub index‧forecast56.5‧Previous value55.8
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)New order sub index‧Previous value60.5
22：00 U.S.A7Monthly Supply Management Association(ISM)Input price sub index‧Previous value52.1


News of the Week
U.S.A6The monthly housing completion index has increased compared to the previous month1.5%, to110.2
U.S.A7Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)by58.9
Caixin China7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIAscend to51.1, at a four month high
American Supply Management Association(ISM)7The monthly manufacturing index is56.3
U.S.A6Monthly construction expenditure decreases1.3%
U.S.A7monthMARKITManufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is53.3, for3The highest since the beginning of the month
U.S.A6月个人支出较前月增加0.1%
U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the previous month0.1%
U.S.A6monthPCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.4%
U.S.A6Monthly personal consumption expenditure(PCE)物价指数较前月持平
U.S.A6Monthly CorePCEThe price index has increased compared to the same period last year1.5%
U.S.A6月个人所得较前月持平
China7Monthly service industryPMIlower51.5, equalize2016year5The lowest level since the beginning of the month
U.S.A7monthADP民间就业岗位增加17.8Ten thousand


Only after taking office in the United States10Scaramucci, the White House Communications Director, has been dismissed by Trump
克利夫兰联储总裁支持FED收紧政策的决心
旧金山联储总裁威廉姆斯：足够强劲，可支持联储9月缩表

8month2day
LondongoldMorning order price:1266.65
London gold afternoon fixing price:1269.60

Today's Introduction
FED官员就政策收紧路径各自表态，市场怀疑联储年底前会否再加息  

美国旧金山联储总裁威廉姆斯周三表示，美国经济的强劲程度或足以支持美联储在9月削减资产负债表。他的讲话暗示，美联储接近于撤走这项备受争议的刺激工具。另外，Market News International周三报导称，美国圣路易斯联邦储备银行总裁布拉德反对美联储进一步升息，警告继续升息可能妨碍国内通胀达到联储设定的2%目标。克利夫兰联储总裁梅斯特(Loretta Mester)周三表示，美联储不应对通胀低迷“反应过度”，尤其是在9月中旬政策会议前出炉的数据会澄清通胀低迷是否是暂时性的情况下。

周三道琼工业指数历史上首次收于22,000点之上，受助于苹果业绩强劲，带动其股价上涨。标准普尔500指数在上周触及的纪录高位略下方徘徊，受益于乐观公司业绩、以及对美联储将缓慢收紧政策的预期。尽管美国就业市场似乎处于多年来最佳状态，失业率维持在17年低点附近，但通胀一直比较疲弱。民间就业服务机构ADP Employer Services周三表示，美国7月民营雇主新增178,000个就业岗位，略低于分析师们的预期；不过，6月民间就业岗位增幅从最初报告的158,000个上修至191,000个。市场参与者预计，备受关注的周五的政府就业报告料显示，美国非农就业岗位稳固增加。汇市方面，随着欧元区及其他一些国家慢慢缩减刺激措施，美元魅力渐失。欧洲央行料将在未来数月公布缩减资产购买项目的计划。该央行目前每月购买600100 million euros(710USD100mn)债券，以提振欧元区经济。欧元兑美元周三曾高见1.19105USD, setting a new record2015year1月以来的最高。英镑兑全线疲软的美元守在近11个月最高位附近。在英国央行的“超级星期四”，有关该央行将在多久后升息的问题将更趋明朗。英镑最近几周受到升息预期支撑，因近来决策官员接连发表偏鹰派言论，不过英国央行总裁卡尼可能态度仍较谨慎。


XAU London Gold - Gold prices rebounded strongly in July, beware of overbought pullbacks

World Gold Council(WGC)周四公布报告显示，今年上半年全球黄金需求减少14%，主因交易所上市基金(ETF)大幅减少买入。WGC在其最新的黄金需求趋势报告中表示，上半年央行购买量亦小幅减少，但金条、金币和珠宝的购买量因印度和土耳其的需求强劲而增加。黄金ETF去年的流入量创纪录，与去年1-6月金价大涨30%的情况相符。但今年同期金价仅上涨约8%，第二季黄金ETF仅新增56吨，较上年同期减少76%，上半年的流入量为167.9吨。上半年黄金ETF流入量中，欧洲ETF占了76%，其持金量来到创纪录的978Tons.1-6月全球黄金总需求达到2,004吨，低于上年同期的2,318.7吨。第二季需求为953吨，为两年最低季度需求。4-6月珠宝购买成长了8%，受到印度实施新营业税之前买盘回升，以及土耳其经济更加稳固的助力，但上半年购买量仍低于1,000吨，自2000年以来仅有四次低于此道关卡。金条和金币购买量在第二季和上半年分别增长13%and11%，中国、印度及土耳其需求增加。第二季央行黄金购买量为94.5吨，土耳其、俄罗斯及哈萨克斯坦斯坦央行均扩大储备，但上半年购买量下滑3%to176.7Tons.

金价周四下跌，因美元从多个月低位小幅走高，且有迹象显示美国经济正在走强，使投资者青睐投资风险资产。民间就业服务机构ADP Employer Services周三表示，美国7月民营雇主新增178,000个就业岗位，低于分析师预期。

技术走势而言，自7month10The day bottomed out at1204.45After the US dollar, the price of gold has continued to rise repeatedly and has risen to this day1270The six week high above the US dollar forms an upward channel, with the bottom located at1264美元，目前已见初步跌破，短期或会出现回调的风险。同时，价位走势已经与RSI及随机指数出现背驰状态，调整机会正在加大。若以此轮累计涨幅计算，23.6%的调整为1257.5USD,38.2%and50%The level of feedback is1247and1239USD, extended to61.8%Then in the1231水平。至于向上阻力则预估在1268And the top of the channel1280The US dollar, the key will directly point to1288To the extent that1300USD level,4month17Daily and6month6日亦曾向此区叩门，但其后均作大幅调整。

London Gold8month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:1256 – 1268
Resistance level:1278 – 1288
Support bit:1246 – 1234

SPDR Gold TrustGold holdings:
7month10Day - 832.39ton
7month11Day - 832.39ton
7month12Day - 832.39ton
7month13Day - 828.84ton
7month14Day - 828.84ton
7month17Day - 827.07ton
7month18Day - 821.45ton
7month19Day - 816.13ton
7month20Day - 816.13ton
7month21Day - 813.76ton
7month24Day - 809.62ton
7month25Day - 800.45ton
7month26Day - 795.42ton
7month27Day - 791.88ton
7month28Day - 791.88ton
7month31Day - 791.88ton
8month1Day - 791.88ton
8month2Day - 791.88ton

8Monthly goldfuturesDue date:8month29day
8Monthly goldoptionDue date:7month26day

Global Official Gold Reserve:
(Data source: World Gold Council(WGC), updated on2017year6month5day)

Global:33425.6 (+50.7ton)
U.S.A(1)：8133.5ton
Germany(2)：3377.3ton (-0.6ton)
IMF(3)：2814.0ton
Italy(4)：2451.8ton
France(5)：2435.9ton
China(6)：1842.6ton
Russia(7)：1687.3ton (+7.2ton)
Switzerland(8)：1040.0ton
Japan(9)：765.2ton
Netherlands(10)：612.5ton

European Central Bank(12)：504.8ton
britain(17)：310.3ton
Hong Kong(92)：2.1ton


XAG London Silver - Silver price exploration50MA

从图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数正呈初步回落迹象，倘若未能企稳于50Balance moving average16.61Above the US dollar, it is feared that silver prices will show a significant adjustment. Silver prices have already explored this indicator in June but have not broken through. Expected support below is25Balance moving average16.23and15.70The key is to explore the US dollar15The US dollar barrier. As for if silver prices continue to rise4month17Daily high18.65Calculate the initial cumulative decline,50%and61.8%The rebound level will be observed16.75and17.20Horizontal, larger resistance will be referenced6Monthly high17.75USD.               

London Silver8month3day
Predicting early wave amplitude:16.30 – 16.80
Resistance level:17.10 – 17.60
Support bit:16.10 – 15.60

iShares Silver TrustSilver holdings:
7month17Day - 10855.49ton
7month18Day - 10826.08ton
7month19Day - 10826.08ton
7month20Day - 10796.67ton
7month21Day - 10796.67ton
7month24Day - 10752.56ton
7month25Day - 10693.75ton
7month26Day - 10693.75ton
7month27Day - 10693.75ton
7month28Day - 10658.47ton
7month31Day - 10629.07ton
8month1Day - 10629.07ton
8month2Day - 10592.33ton

EUR euro - 美元在两年半低位上方持稳，投资者静待美非农就业数据

周四公布的调查显示，欧元区企业活动在今年下半年伊始增长强劲，不过速度较6月略微放缓，因德国和法国失去动能，拖累了企业活动。IHS Markit公布，欧元区7Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is55.7，不及6Of56.3，并低于初值55.8. This index is derived from2013年中以来就一直处在荣枯线50上方。新订单增多、未交付订单积聚以及企业增加聘雇，均预示强劲表现有望延续至8month.7月就业分项指数和6Of54.4持稳，也是过去10年最高水平之一。稍早的数据显示，德国7月服务业活动放缓至10个月低位，法国民间部门活动增长较6月更加缓慢。上月西班牙服务业PMI也下降。欧元区7Monthly service industryPMI终值持平于6Of55.4，与初值一致。周二公布的制造业PMI低于上月数值。上月服务业新业务以更快速度增长。该分项指数从6Of55.1Slightly increase55.2。

美元周四持平，守在前一交易日所及两年半低位上方，投资者在翘首以待美国非农就业数据。美元指数周三曾跌至2016year5月以来最低点92.548。尽管第二季美国企业获利呈双位数增长，且上月民间部门就业人口又新增17.8万人，但有关美联储第三次升息的预期已淡化，期货市场目前预计2017年底之前再次升息的可能性只有35%。美元下跌推动欧元走高，欧元兑美元周三触及两年半高位1.1910。尽管欧元兑美元今年以来累计涨逾12.5%，但路透调查显示，风险仍偏好欧元，因市场预期欧洲央行将开始缩减刺激措施。

since2015year1Since the beginning of the month, the euro has emerged from a triple bottom pattern, with three bottoms:2015year3Of1.0456，2015year12Of1.0538, and this year1Of1.0339Therefore, the euro can stabilize at1.17水平这道颈线上方，技术面将巩固欧元的进一步强势。下一级阻力预料为1.19The key will directly point to1.20关口。预估延伸较大阻力则在250Weekly moving average1.2060and1.2170水平。然而，相对强弱指标及随机指数已处于高至90水平上方的严重超买区域，需留意价位越接近1.20这个重要心理关口前，出现回调的机率亦会随之加大。若果以6month20Daily low1.1117至本轮涨势的暂见高位1.1909Calculate the cumulative increase in price,38.2%and50%The callback amplitude is1.1600and1.1510Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.1900 – 1.2000 – 1.2060 – 1.2170
support 1.1700 - 1.1600 – 1.1510

Focus:
8month3day(four): Eurozone6Monthly retail sales


Related news
France7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.9
Italy7Monthly manufacturing industryPMISlightly descending55.1
Germany7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is58.1
Spain7Monthly manufacturing industryPMInewspaper54.0
Germany7The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for menstruation is5.7%
Germany7The total unemployed population without seasonal adjustment per month is251.8ten thousand people
Germany7Seasonal adjustment of menstrual cycle reduces unemployment population9,000People, to253.7ten thousand people
eurozone7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.6
eurozone7Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is55.4
eurozone7Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is55.7
Germany7Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is53.1
Germany7Monthly Comprehensive Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is54.7
France7Monthly Service Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)The final value is56.0
France7Monthly comprehensivePMIThe final value is55.6
Italy7Monthly service industryPMIAscend to56.3, for10The highest in the past year
Italy7Monthly comprehensivePMIAscend to56.2
Spain7Monthly service industryPMI由近两年高点小跌至57.6


JPY yen - 日本内阁改组完成，成员多为安倍信任之人

在周四的日本内阁改组中，首相安倍晋三几乎完全选择了可靠的人选而非新面孔，但改组带来的支持率的提升效果或许不会如他所愿。安倍正备受丑闻及支持率下降的困扰。许多内阁成员都获留任，比如财务大臣麻生太郎，或担任了他们以前曾就任过的职位。少数例外之一则是新任外务大臣河野太郎，此人因对执政党的批评、以及有着日本政客罕见的直率而闻名。民调显示，安倍支持率已降至其2012year12月重新担任首相以来的最低水平。安倍出任首相时，承诺重振日本低迷的经济并加强国防。支持率下降危及安倍修改日本和平宪法的努力。在7月东京都议会地方选举中，执政的自民党惨败给一个新兴政党，也重挫安倍人气。

As seen in the technical chart,MACDFalling below the signal line, relative strength indicators and random indices are still declining, indicating that the exchange rate is still weak. The trend of the double top pattern is still clearly reflected, with the two tops being5month11Of114.36and7month11Of114.49, failed to break through114.50Under the resistance, the road has been declining for the past two weeks. Currently supported by250The Tianping moving average, previously in June and April, also experienced a decline in exchange rates250The Tianping moving average has not been clearly broken below, and there has been a strong rebound since then. Therefore, if this trip can eventually fall below the current position110.20of250The Tianping moving average will further confirm the continuation of the downward trend of the US dollar against the Japanese yen. In addition, the neckline position of the bipedal form, i.e6month14day108.81, will be another key level, the next level is108. Keep paying attention upwards114.50Horizontal, for closer resistance, refer to25Balance moving average112.50and113.60This can be seen as a suitable area for re establishing short positions in the US dollar, breaking through115Stop loss at the checkpoint.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 112.50 – 113.60 – 115.00*
support 110.20 – 108.80 – 108.00

Focus:
8month3day(four): Japan invested in foreign bonds last week‧Last week, foreign investment in Japanese stocks
8month4day(five): Japan6Monthly overtime pay

Related news
Japan7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Final value drops to52.1

审议委员布野幸利：央行不再为实现通胀目标设定时间框架


GBP pound - 英镑创11个月高位，观望央行决议

英镑兑美元周四触及1.3260上方的11个月高位，英国央行今晚公布政策决议，市场预期英央行在6月发表大量偏鹰派讲话后，将再度偏鸽派。英国一连串数据表现趋弱，加上英国退欧的巨大不确定性，已使外界的升息臆测降温。投资人预估英国央行将以6-2的表决票数通过维持利率不变。

近月英镑走势持续反复上扬，并形成了一道上升趋向线，至今位于1.3040Technically, caution should be taken in the future. If this area is clearly lost, there is expected to be a significant adjustment in the pound. Below is a larger support reference50The current position of the balance moving average1.2915and1.28Horizontal. On the contrary, if the flag shape continues to rise again, the golden ratio will be calculated based on last year's6month24Daily high1.5018to10month7Daily low1.1450accumulate3568Calculation of point drop,50%The rebound level is1.3230Expand to61.8%Then it is1.3655. Other resistance can be referred to1.35and100Weekly moving average1.3540Horizontal.               


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.3230 – 1.3500 – 1.3655
support 1.3040 – 1.2915 - 1.2800 – 1.2720

Focus:
8month3day(four): UK8Monthly Central Bank Interest Rate Resolution‧Scale of quantitative easing‧MPCVoting results

Related news
NATIONWIDE: UK7Monthly housing prices have increased compared to the previous month0.3%，00Increase compared to the same period last year2.9%


CHF Swiss franc - The Swiss franc continues to strengthen

In terms of USD/CHF, USD/CHF will continue to be weak, and the next target will be towards last year5Monthly low0.9440If there is significant support, you can refer to it2015year8Monthly low0.9251To the extent that0.9150Horizontal. As for the resistance above, it is10Balance moving average0.9635and0.9810To the next level100Balance moving average0.9860Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.9635 - 0.9810 - 0.9860
support 0.9440 – 0.9251 – 0.9150

Related news
Switzerland7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to60.9
Switzerland6Monthly retail sales increased compared to the same period last year1.5%
瑞士第三季消费者信心指数升至负3


AUD AUD - The central bank maintains interest rates unchanged and raises opposition to the strengthening of the Australian dollar

澳元周四进一步远离近期所及两年高位，在美元全线走软的情况下，澳元自6月初开始呈现升势，到7month27日触及高位0.8066，至此已累计上涨近7%。但此后回落，在0.8000美元左右遭遇强劲阻力。

As seen in the technical chart, from2016Since the third quarter of the year, the exchange rate trend has outlined a set of head, shoulder, and bottom patterns, with the neckline positioned at0.7780，只要汇价持稳于此区上方，澳元料仍可保持上涨势头。以右肩的深度450Point calculation, technology extension goals can be seen0.8230; If the amplitude of the head shape620Point calculation, mid-term goals will point towards0.84Horizontal. As for the current resistance in close proximity, attention can be paid to it50Monthly average line0.8070。然而，鉴于相对强弱指标及随机指数已出现回调，估计澳元短期先作调整的机会较大，下方支持回看25Balance moving average0.78The larger supporting material is0.7710and0.7640Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.8000 – 0.8070 – 0.8230
support 0.7800 - 0.7720 - 0.7640

Related news
The Bank of Australia announces the maintenance of benchmark interest rates at1.50%unchanged

Australia6月经季节调整后的新屋建筑许可较前月跳增10.9%
Australia6月经季调商品/Service trade balance is a surplus8.56AUD 100 million
Australia6月经季调商品/服务出口较前月下滑1%Import growth compared to the previous month2%

Focus:
8month4day(five): Australia6Monthly retail sales rate‧Q2 Retail Trade Season Rate in Australia


NZD New Zealand dollars - 薪资数据低迷，纽元延续调整

The New Zealand dollar fell to the US dollar0.74下方的两周低位，数据显示，新西兰第二季就业成长意外下滑，且薪资增长依然疲弱，强化了新西兰央行近期不会急于升息的看法。图表所见，相对强弱指标及随机指数均已告回挫，同时MACDThe pointer has also fallen the signal line, and it is estimated that the New Zealand dollar is beginning to experience a correction correction correction against the US dollar. Below is an estimate supported by25Balance moving average0.7360and0.7260The key is250Balance moving average0.7140To the extent that0.70Gateway. If calculated based on the cumulative increase since May,38.2%and50%The level of feedback will be observed separately0.7270and0.7190Horizontal, extended to61.8%Then in the0.71. On the other hand, the resistance above focuses on100Monthly average line0.7570If it can break through and rise, the next target will see0.7745and0.78Horizontal.

Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 0.7500 - 0.7550 - 0.7745
support 0.7130 – 0.7000 - 0.6800/40

Related news
新西兰第二季经季节调整后的失业率降至4.8%
New Zealand7月主要大宗商品价格较前月下跌0.8%, from4First decline since the beginning of the month


CAD Cad - 中美贸易摩擦担忧打击商品货币

美元兑加元走势，过去两个月汇价一路下滑，直至近日似乎在1.24止住了跌势，而RSI及随机指数亦已见有回升迹象；故此短线汇价或可望先作回稳，上方阻力回看1.2590and25Balance moving average1.2720. Calculated by the golden ratio,38.2%的反弹幅度见于1.2940水平。反之，若果后市下破1.24这个当前的关键水平，预料延伸跌幅可会看至1.2175To the extent that1.20关口，进一步则会参考2015year5Monthly low1.1916。


Estimated wave amplitude:
resistance 1.2590 - 1.2720 - 1.2940
support 1.2400* – 1.2175 – 1.2000


Focus:        
8month4day(five): Canada7Monthly job changes‧unemployment rate‧Employment participation rate‧trade balance‧Export‧Import‧Ivey PMI


Related news
Canada6Monthly industrial product prices have declined compared to the previous month1.0%, up from the same period last year3.3%
MARKITCanada7Monthly Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)Ascend to55.5


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Emperor Financial Group Zongheng Huihai Analysis Department
(The above column content is the author's personal professional opinions and is sincerely for readers' reference; I would like to remind readers that financial market volatility is unpredictable and they must be cautious of risks)