Su Ye's Discussion on Gold: The Weak US Dollar, Gold's Potential to Rise, and the Rise of Crude Oil51

Next daygoldStabilizing with a slight decline, the highest intraday price in the US market reached an upward trend1270.98dollar/Ounces, overall wave amplitude5Around the US dollar, the price of gold is almost at7The highest point of the week, rising nearly in July2%Due to the depreciation of the US dollar and political turmoil in the United States, the US index once again received bad news, falling below93At the critical juncture, Trump once again played the nemesis of the US dollar, taking office yesterday only10The sudden dismissal of the Director of the White House Communications Office by Trump has heightened uncertainty about the political outlook in the United States. The week before Scaramucci's departure can be considered one of the most tumultuous weeks for President Trump's presidency. During this period, the significant efforts of the Republican Party to reform the US healthcare system failed in Congress, and Trump's spokesperson and former chief of staff both resigned. Internal conflicts in the White House have become increasingly public. Affected by the news, the US dollar fell to last year in response5The lowest level in the month. Due to the continuous decline of the US dollar,7Monthly gold price creation2The largest monthly increase since the beginning of the month. Since the beginning of this year, the US dollar has fallen by more than8%Not only did it spit out all the gains after the election, but it also fell below the pre election level. If the US dollar continues to decline, then gold prices will experience a crazy rise.
　　
Yesterday, the gold was completed7Let's first review the monthly line structure of the month today7The overall market trend of the month, with the opening at the beginning of the month1240.9The market continued the trend of rising and falling at the monthly level in June, and the market first fell, reaching its lowest point in the day1204The market started to rebound due to the impact of fundamental hedging and the weakening of the US dollar after the position of [insert position]. Subsequently, the market rose strongly and broke through the opening position at the beginning of the month. The market further rose, reaching its highest point yesterday1271The market began to consolidate after the position of [insert location], and the final monthly closing line was at [insert location]1269After the position is reached, a long downward shadow line is used to close the line, and such a large shadow line effectively breaks the monthly line level2011Annual historical high point1920The downward trend line pressure connected, and the formation of a solid positive and negative pattern at the monthly level, although the monthly line is still within the consolidation range of the large kneading pattern, it can be certain that8The monthly gold trend is bound to have a strong period, and from a long-term perspective, after the cyclical pressure breaks through, the monthly line level already has the leading image of bottoming out. Therefore, in terms of operation, medium and long-term operations are necessary8We need to do a good job in low volume layout every month.

　　

On the daily chart, it can be seen that the next day, gold slightly falls and charges a negative cross star (either accumulating momentum or reversing), maintaining an overall range of volatility. Such a market trend is often the most agonizing. The next day, gold did not further extend last week's increase and directly broke through1270After the US dollar, it was suppressed and slightly declined, but below1265The support is relatively strong. As for the market that triggered the risk aversion, Su Ye has also said that it rises quickly and falls back quickly. The market situation for the next day did not receive any guidance from the author, and fluctuated throughout the day5The US dollar makes it difficult for people to control the long and short directions, and even if they operate, they will still make a small profit. On the contrary, this kind of market situation makes me feel familiar with it. Last Monday（7month24The daily gold price is also charging a negative cross star at a high level, so today's market may continue to maintain a high level adjustment. Firstly, due to last week's strong rise in gold prices entering the adjustment market, and secondly, all the market trends during this week's "super week" are gathering Focusing on non-agricultural sectors, market trading is relatively cautious.
　　
Overall, Su Ye believes that there is a sustained overbought trend in gold's short-term indicators, with a downward trend. However, on the daily chart, bullish positions still hold the upper hand. Overall, since gold has been1204After stabilizing at a low level and rebounding, it stood firm on the daily chart5Daily and10After moving above the daily moving average, Su Ye believes that as long as the gold price stays above these two moving averages, it can take advantage of the trend and go long. Currently, what we need to focus on is10Daily moving average at1257Support. If it's within the day, you need to pay attention to yesterday1270High level resistance and1265In terms of low support, Su Ye suggests taking advantage of the trend and focusing on low positions, supplemented by light positions at high positions.
　　
Specific suggestion: fall back to1265Multiple nearby orders entering, target direction1271Nearby, break through and look towards1275Stop loss1260; If it can be touched1275Nearby, we can try to empty the light warehouse.

　　

Silver, with a very complete rebound trend, the hourly line starts from15.2Starting to rise continuously, until now16.8, already approaching17Positioned, bullish according to gold1280Speaking of which, silver is basically in place17The area is similar, so the upward potential is not significant, but after experiencing this rebound, silver may not break through in the future15.2It should form a fluctuating upward trend, which is different from gold. When gold fluctuates at a large level, silver is falling. Previously, it had a significant decline to confirm this year's low point, and then started to rebound from here. The entire pattern is relatively complete and regular, so silver is considered a leading indicator of gold. If this rebound is completed, if it encounters resistance17The decline in the area can be seen as a shift from15.2The first wave of rise at the beginning does not break after a pullback15.2Continuing to rise is likely to be a trend like this, so remember, the rebound is basically over now, and after encountering resistance and falling back, it may be16The area is a secondary buying opportunity.
　　
Specific suggestion: Silver16.9Empty, stop loss17.2, Objective16.3!
　　
Oil prices have rebounded in the past month, mainly due to global factorscrude oilThe process of rebalancing the oil market is accelerating due to a significant reduction in inventory, a decrease in the number of oil wells drilled in the United States, and strong global demand for crude oil; In addition, recent geopolitical risks in Venezuela have also boosted oil prices. The next day, oil prices rose to a two month high, ending the strongest month of the year, partly due to expectations that the United States will impose sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry and easing concerns about oversupply in recent weeks. Meanwhile, due to the upcoming meeting of oil producing countries next week, the confidence of crude oil bulls has greatly increased, and the continued decline of the US dollar has also increased the rebound momentum of oil prices.
　　
Yesterday, US crude oil also completed its own monthly level structure. Looking back7The crude oil market trend of the month opened slightly higher at the beginning of the month46.349After the position, the market first hit its lowest point and was given a discount43.662The market started to rise after being supported by the downward trajectory of the rising triangle in this round, as well as bullish factors such as OPEC's production reduction on the fundamentals. The market continued to rise during the day, reaching its highest point50.4After sorting out the positions, the final monthly line collection was made50.218After the position of the moon line, it ends with a long downward shadow line, which also forms a technical upward signal at the level of the moon line with a reversal of positive and negative.

　　

On the daily chart, oil prices are expected to close with six consecutive positive trends, while bulls remain strong. Currently, oil prices are operating at50.2Frontline, short-term upper impact50.5Belt resistance suppression, only by effectively breaking through this pressure level can we look up5month25Daily high point52.4Zone suppression level, but short-term downward trend50The integer level of the US dollar can be seen as a support level for the rise of oil prices, and further support levels should be focused on5Daily moving average at49.6One area,10Daily moving average at48.3There is support, and currently, the distance between these two moving averages is relatively far. At this time, once there is a decline in oil prices, its strength will also be greater. From the early stage of oil prices42After stabilizing and rebounding from the low position, the highest point above is47.3The section nearbyKThe trend of moving averages and moving averages,5Daily and10The daily moving averages are also far apart, and subsequently, it can be seen that oil prices have increased from47.3A large Yin line from a high position is lowered and penetrated10The daily moving average is as low as44.6The decline in the US dollar is quite significant, so this situation also needs to be taken seriously.
　　
Overall, crude oil has been boosted by positive market news, with strong performance from bulls. However4The hourly trend chart indicators continue to be overbought, with continuous peaks and deviations, facing the danger of falling at any time. Su Ye suggests still being cautious in pursuing long positions and waiting for a decline to make long positions. When pursuing long positions, attention should be paid to light positions and good stop loss measures. Risk control must be the top priority to avoid sudden and significant declines turning into hedging. As we all know, the trend of crude oil is very independent, and unexpected trends have no signs and a large magnitude, So risk control must be of utmost importance.
　　
Specific suggestion: fall back to49.8reach50Going long in between, looking towards the target50.5, breaking through and looking towards51Stop loss49.5; If oil prices fall below49.6So Su Ye suggests that when rebounding to this position again, the light position can be left empty, with the target looking towards49reach49.3Breaking through and adding positions to look towards48.5Stop loss49.9; At that time, the specific market situation will be analyzed, and Su Ye will provide specific information in the actual market.
　　
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