Capital Fengshi-黎万旗：十人炒股九人亏

    There is a popular saying in the stock market: ten people trading stocks and nine people losing money, which means that out of ten people trading stocks, nine will lose money. Why is this happening? I think the main reason is still related to our beliefs. Most people enter the stock market with the aim of quickly making money. Without understanding the rules of the stock market, they blindly buy and sell, resulting in a situation where they buy and then fall and sell and then rise. Occasionally buying the right thing at once is just a coincidence and cannot guarantee long-term stable profits.



　　对于大多数散户而言，我们要怎么做才能在股市里长久的生存下去呢？我们首先要做的就是要改变我们的观念，世界上并没有快速又安全的赚钱方法，在股市也一样，买卖周期越小，风险也就越大，所以我们要用长远的眼光来避免短期的风险，这是一个投资者最基本的素质。



　　一、股票买卖的周期越小，所承受的风险也就越大，亏得也会比较多，主要原因有以下两点：
　　1 . The short term is full of uncertainty and is easily manipulated by humans.



We know that the stock market has its ups and downs because there is buying and selling, for example100Personally10Selling at a price of yuanACompany stocks, and150Human beings10Buy at a price of yuanACompany stocks, so there are also50People can't even buy stocks, so this50Individuals may end up with11Buying stocks at the price of blocks (provided that someone must pay11Sell the stock at a price of blocks, at which point the stock will also sell from10The block has risen to11Block;
On the contrary, there are100Personally11Buy at a price of yuanACompany stocks, and then there are150Personally11Selling at a price of yuan, then there is still50If an individual is unable to sell stocks, they will consider offering a lower price10Selling stocks for yuan (provided that someone is also involved)10Buy stocks at the price of yuan, and at this point, the stocks will start from11The block fell to the ground10Block.



In fact, stocks are bought or sold at every price point, and the rise and fall of stocks are determined by market demand. At this point, we should also be able to understand that as long as we have sufficient funds, we can control the trend of stock prices in the short term by buying or selling, which is artificial manipulation. Because there are thousands of investors, we don't know who is manipulating it, and it's possible that many people are manipulating it; Even without manipulation, everyone would have different judgments, and the short-term stock price trend would be full of uncertainty and without any regularity.



In this uncertain market, the probability of stocks rising and falling is50%There is a half chance that it will rise and a half chance that it will fall, just like flipping a coin. It has the nature of gambling, also known as speculation.



　　2 . Using technical analysis as a decision-making basis is not reliable.



Speculators usually use technical analysis methods, which use graphics to predict the future trend of stock prices and serve as a basis for decision-making. This method is usually unreliable because the short term is full of uncertainty, and we cannot predict the future trend of stock prices.



By using technical analysis, it is easy to impose our subjective desires on the market, which can mislead our decisions.



Having said so much, it is already very clear that in order to make money in the stock market, we should try to avoid becoming speculators as much as possible, because speculation itself is gambling and cannot make money. Even if we are lucky enough to make a profit once, we will still lose everything next time.



　　二、那么该如何利用长期的眼光来避免短期的风险，成为一个投资者呢？我们要知道，投资者是建立在深刻分析的基础上，做到让资产保值或者增值的目的，一般要做到以下两点：
　　1 . Long lines are necessary to catch big fish.



We already know that the short term is full of uncertainty and is easily manipulated by large funds. To reduce this uncertainty, we can only choose to take the long term to avoid short-term risks. The reason is that the long term is not easily manipulated, and even if you have more funds, it is not easy to shake the overall trend of the market.



　　2 . Using fundamental analysis as the basis for decision-making.



Investors generally conduct in-depth analysis from three perspectives: macro, industry, and company. They are able to grasp economic trends, national policies, industry trends, product supply and demand, company leadership, finance, and other aspects. This can greatly clarify the future development direction of the company and help us make correct decisions.



When we buy stocks, we are actually buying the future of the company. The stock price of a company with good growth prospects will definitely rise steadily in the future, which is a major trend and generally not affected by external factors; And those short-term fluctuations, investors will choose to turn a blind eye because they are inherently full of uncertainty and cannot be grasped. Only by seizing the big trend can we make the wisest choice.



A true investment expert is not just using fundamental analysis as the sole decision-making basis, but rather using fundamental analysis as the basis, combined with technical analysis as auxiliary reference, ultimately able to find buying and selling points more accurately.



　　投资者购买股票的成功率一般在80%左右，甚至更高，就算出现决策的失误，也能有足够的时间意识到、并及时止损，亏损一般都小于盈利，总体上还是保持盈利的状态。更多精彩内容关注微信公众号：黎万旗（liwanqi888）Individual stock recommendations, market analysis, and insider stock recommendations, add WeChat:w13640659986，个股诊断，分析师一对一咨询。
Author:2017/8/1 Li Wanqi