Suye Lunjin:7.31(Early evaluation) Suggestions for early operation of gold crude oil (with unpacking)

Last FridaygoldThe rise in prices has also been supported by geopolitical fluctuations. Japanese media reported that North Korea has launched another missile, and the Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan stated that the missile was launched in the direction of the Sea of Japan and fell into Japan's exclusive economic zone. This is the latest geopolitical trend following the increased sanctions imposed by the United States on Russia, North Korea, and Iran. The presidents of the United States and South Korea are aware of this, and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea urgently convened the National Security Conference. The author Su Ye believes that due to the significant decline in the annual inflation rate in the United States, the Federal Reserve has no urgent interest in raising interest rates; In this situation, it is difficult to look at interest rates or the US dollar well. since7Since the beginning of the month, the US dollar has been falling for five consecutive months, and along with short covering, it has helped gold rise by about60US dollars. But the demand for physical gold has declined, due to the decline in gold in the first half of the yearETFThe decrease in physical demand has resulted in a surplus in the global market138Tons. However, from a technical perspective, gold has successfully crossed the Fibonacci technical resistance level1261.30dollar/Ounces and subject to100Daily moving average1249dollar/The support of ounces, while the price of gold1260dollar/The consolidation above ounces may rise even higher. At present, the gold price has been running at1260dollar/Above the ounce line and touching1270The threshold is expected to open up further upward space.
　　
With the further increase last Friday, the monthly closing is no longer as important as the July opening1240The area is basically the low point of last Wednesday's pullback, rising in the early morning of last Thursday, combined with the last rise on Friday. On the last trading day of July, which is today, it is impossible to fall back, so the monthly line will definitely close positive. However, closing positive on the monthly line does not necessarily mean rising, because looking at the monthly line, it has formed a volatile trend of a yin-yang cycle. If we follow this pattern, then July will rebound and close positive, and August should rise and fall back to close negative. The main uncertainty now is the magnitude of the rise, some say it's over a thousand three, while others say it's over a thousand three1280perhaps1295Higher, the author Su Ye believes that both are possible.

　　

Technical interpretation of gold: From the daily chart, the overall presentation of goldVThe trend of type reversal,KThe overall trend of the line shows a bullish arrangement, and the upward trend has been continuing. According to the current trend, gold is expected to impact6Monthly high point1295On the front line, from the perspective of the Bollinger system, Bollinger operates with an open mouth,KThe line is running near the Bollinger track and has been received so far1270A brief suppression on the front line, with a slight correction of the decline;4Looking at the hourly chart, the moving average system shows a wave like rise,5Daily moving average10The daily moving average runs with a golden cross, and the Bollinger belt runs upwards with an open mouth, as shown in the attached figureMACDThe red kinetic energy column gradually increases in volume,KDJThe golden cross runs with positive technical indicators and a clear bullish trend. Taking into account the recent market fundamentals and the weakening of the US dollar, both are bullish on gold, so gold will further rise in the future and is expected to break through this week1280frontline
　　
Overall, gold bulls are currently very strong, with short-term attention from the upper echelons1273reach1275Pay attention to the pressure level below1260reach1265The supporting position is important to focus on1280The offensive and defensive situation, after all, this is the bullish and bearish boundary point of early gold. Su Ye's operational suggestion is to take advantage of the trend and go long at the beginning of the week.
　　
Golden Morning Strategy:
　　
Radical friends suggest1266reach1268One more light position nearby, fall back to make up for multiple orders, target direction1270reach1275Between;
　　
A steady friend suggests that1263Long nearby, stop loss1258reach1260Nearby, the target can also see1270-1275between.
　　
Suggestions above1274If it doesn't break, you can take a short wave in the light warehouse and look towards the target1268reach1270Nearby, stop loss1278。
　　
　　crude oilAspect, Friday(7month28day)Oil prices hit a high in the US market49.61dollar/Barrel, daily rise1.8%, refresh near2Month high, with a single month rebound of up to15%. contrast7In the first and middle of the month, there were frequent positive news reports in the crude oil market last week. Among them, a report released by the US Energy Information Administration shows that commercial crude oil inventories across the country decreased last week720Ten thousand barrels, more than the previously expected decline in the market260Ten thousand barrels. The inventory data to some extent alleviated investors' concerns about oversupply in the international crude oil market, supporting the rise in oil prices on the same day. In the middle of last week, Saudi Arabia began to implement the "production reduction" agreement, limiting the export volume of crude oil, causing a surge in sentiment among the oil market bulls, resulting in a continuous surge in oil prices. In addition, the continuous decline of the US dollar has also played a role in fueling the situation.
　　
The author Su Ye believes that due to the potential volatility of crude oil data and the constantly changing expectations of crude oil production cuts, the current rise in oil prices is only a short-term bull market. Can it continue until8We still need to look at this week's data and market reactions. But with2017Taking the trend of the first half of the year as a reference, in the process of vigorously developing the shale gas industry in the United States, if oil prices want to break through smoothly55The key resistance level for the US dollar is still quite challenging. break through50The US dollar barrier is just the first step on a long road.

　　

Analysis of crude oil technology: From the daily chart, it can be seen that last Friday was a consecutive bullish period, and the moving average system showed a bullish pattern, with the Bollinger Bands opening upwards,KThe line has already broken through the Bollinger Bands and is running upwards. Last week, crude oil continued to rise, and new highs were constantly set above, with no significant pullback in the middle. The upward trend is very obvious, and the weekly closing is close to what we expected50The big mark is only one step away, and from the current trend, the upward momentum of crude oil is still continuing without any signs of falling, so in the short term, crude oil is still bullish,4On the hourly chart, the Bollinger Bands show an expanding trend, and prices show signs of breaking through the upper line of the Bollinger Bands under the current upward momentum. The moving averageMA5Continue to move up the moving averageMA10Forming a golden cross and continuously diverging upwards, the moving average of each cycle shows a bullish trend,KThe line runs directly on5，10Above the daily moving average, the indicator shows a dual upward trend of the fast and slow lines,MACDThe red kinetic energy column is increasing again.
　　
Overall, gold bulls are currently very strong, with short-term attention from the upper echelons1273reach1275Pay attention to the pressure level below1260reach1265The supporting position is important to focus on1280The offensive and defensive situation, after all, this is the bullish and bearish boundary point of early gold. Su Ye's operational suggestion is to take advantage of the trend and go long at the beginning of the week.
　　
Early crude oil strategy:
　　
Fallback to49.5reach49.3Multiple nearby orders entering, target direction50USD, stop loss49Below the US dollar;
　　
If oil prices rise for the first time50.3You can empty the light warehouse once nearby, and the target is looking towards it49.7to50Near USD, stop loss50.7。
　　
Gold empty order unwinding:
　　
　　1，1250-1260For friends with mild bedding in the interval, the resistance above is1275Frontline, touching1275Light position replenishment and short orders lower the average price, leading to a pullback1265Nearby, reduce positions and exit, to1262All nearby players are out, backhand long;
　　
　　2，1240-1250For friends with short positions nearby, the position being held is not small. It is estimated that if there is not enough funds, they will not be able to withstand the subsequent upward trend. Therefore, Su Ye suggests reducing positions when there is a pullback, and then reducing or closing positions according to the magnitude of the pullback, and then going long in the opposite direction.
　　
Unwrapping of crude oil empty orders:
　　
　　1.48.8-48.6It is recommended to lock the warehouse for orders placed below with insufficient risk,Control the risk first to resolve the situation, otherwise the next step will be to sell out.
　　
　　2.48.8-48.6Suggestions for risk and safety of nested orders below49.7Replenishing positions and lowering the average price can quickly get you out of the market. Remember not to lock in positions casually if you have enough risk.
　　
　　3.49.2If the risk of hedging is sufficient, it is recommended to replenish the position and fall back to49.3-49.2Just get eliminated nearby.
　　
As for the friend who has been deeply deceived, Su Ye is currently unaware of your specific situation, so it is not easy to give advice randomly. Whether it is the decline in the gold or crude oil market, there is an opportunity to unwind, and specific operations can be discussed with Su Ye.
　　Wen/Su Ye's Discussion on Gold reform lxr1489