Guide Metallographer:8.17今日黄金走势分析，黄金偏看震荡承压走低

Market Review:


InternationalgoldTuesday(7month16day)Maintain a volatile trend, opening price1780.66dollar/Ounces, highest price1783.95dollar/Ounces, lowest price1771.35dollar/Ounces, closing price1774.17dollar/ounce.


Interpretation of the Golden News:


The United States announced on Tuesday7月工业产出月率录得0.6%Higher than market expectations0.3%, previous value is-0.2%。


　　评论称，7月份，美国工厂产出实现3个月来首次增长，这是受汽车产量回升的推动，而其他类别的数据喜忧参半。美联储周二公布的数据显示，美国7月制造业产出月率增长0.7%，6月份修正后下降0.4%。尽管上月制造业走强，但由于企业要应对库存积压和国内商品需求放缓，制造业增速有所放缓，并面临失去更多动能的风险。最近的工厂调查显示，订单出现了回落，而在美元走强的背景下，出口市场走弱则是另一个不利因素。


United States7Annual record of total monthly construction of new houses144.6万户，低于市场预期154万户；美国7Total monthly construction permits recorded167.4万户，低于市场预期165Ten thousand households.


　　评论称，7月新屋开工率略有下降，但前值略微向上修正。由于住宅投资(以及住房活动)持续降温，美国7月新屋开工年化月率录得-9.6%，降幅超过预期。话虽如此，6月份的数据被向上修正，营建许可数据也比预期略高，所以这个数据并没有看起来那么糟糕。无论如何，预计住宅投资将对当前季度的经济增长构成不利影响，消费和资本支出将成为推动季度GDP恢复扩张的因素，前提是这一因素成为现实。


　　德商银行分析称，美元应该会继续得到美联储积极加息周期的支持，因为目前还没有明显的经济放缓迹象。德商银行foreign exchangeanalystYou-Na Park-Hege在一份报告中称，美国可能在明年初陷入衰退，但距离美联储需要严重担忧经济状况的时刻仍有一段距离。对于美国经济将走弱到何种程度的不确定性也很大，因此现在将衰退反映到美元汇率中似乎还为时过早。德商银行预计零售销售数据应该会证实美国经济目前依然强劲。


The world's largest goldETF--SPDR Gold TrustPosition decrease compared to the previous day1.74Tons, current position is992.2Tons.


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is59.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is40.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is30%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is49.9%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is20.1%。


Today's Focus:


　　10:00新西兰联储公布利率决议和政策声明


　　11:00新西兰联储主席奥尔召开新闻发布会


　　14:00britain7monthCPIMonthly rate


　　14:00britain7Monthly Retail Price Index Monthly Rate


　　17:00Eurozone Q2GDPAnnual rate correction value


　　17:00欧元区第二季度季调后就业人数季率


　　20:30U.S.A7Monthly retail sales rate


　　21:30美联储理事鲍曼发表讲话


　　22:00U.S.A6Monthly commercial inventory rate


The next day02:00Federal ReserveFOMCpublish7Monthly Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金昨日震荡回弹测压1783一线便再度承压回修，晚间下方回撤1771一线后有所止跌，但回弹动能不强，最终未能返回1780上方，日线收得一小阴星线。


　　从昨日黄金运行节奏来看，对比美指运行节奏，可以看出虽然主节奏还是受到美指的影响的，但市场对美指的极端状态已经表现一定的冷静，即黄金波动幅度远不如美指波动幅度，这是市场对美指极端状态的处理，也是面对美联储会议纪要即将公布，等待基本面的进一步明朗再做选择。日线结构上，日内黄金暂时还是会保留一定的偏空状态，但下方可以预见的空间也比较小，着重关注40、20Daily line1765-60一带支撑测试，低位跌破与否也将决定黄金中期走势是走偏强震荡，还是再度转入弱势震荡。日内上方则关注短周期均线压力带1785-90一带，在美联储会议纪要公布前，行情大概率是会围绕上述趋近进行震荡的，而一旦美联储会议纪要透露相关消息，刺激市场对美联储的加息步调预期，则黄金也就有可能冲破区间。


　　小时图上，昨日黄金走势虽然和美指走势有脱节，但显得还是很被动的，无论是承压回修，还是下探后回升，都显得没有力度，连贯性也较差。按照目前结构重心偏下移的状态，不排除再出现一波回落的可能性，届时下方可关注1765-60一带争夺，而如果行情选择上行，上方1785附近也继续会带来短线压制，所以日内黄金走势很不明朗，这也是市场选择震荡来等待基本面事件的结果。


　　操作上，日内保守者暂作观望为宜，规避基本面事件前市场情绪不稳定的风险。激进则继续尝试区间内短线低多高空，但风险也还是比较大，故务必极轻仓对待。


　　①日内黄金若先回撤1773/72、1770附近，激进还是可以先尝试一次短多，务必极轻仓，带止损1768, look at the goal1777-80即减仓改保本止损，剩余持单再看1785-90Regional competition.


　　②如果日内行情先出现下行，破位1770，则下方可关注1765-60一带支撑测试，至此行情能否止跌，能否进行短多，有待根据实盘情况再做策略调整。


　　③如果日内白盘时段上方测压至1785-88一带，能否搏短空，也有待根据实际情况再做实盘策略调整。


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