Guide Metallographer:8.2今日黄金走势分析，访台事件升温

　　goldMessage interpretation:


The United States announced on Monday7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIFinal value recorded52.2, lower than market expectations52.3.


　　评论称，除了新冠疫情封锁期，7月份美国制造商经历了自2009年以来最艰难的商业环境。今年春季的井喷式增长已迅速逆转，7月份工厂商品新订单连续第二个月下降，导致生产出现两年来首次下降，就业增长大幅放缓。生活成本的上升以及日益恶化的经济前景是最常见的导致销售下降的原因。在前景更加黯淡的情况下，企业在采购和库存方面也越来越谨慎，而且似乎也在削减投资，7月份企业设备和机械的新订单降幅尤其大。供应链问题仍然是一个主要问题，但已经有所缓解，减轻了各种原材料价格的压力。这导致出厂商品价格出现了近一年半以来的最小涨幅，通胀率急剧降温，进一步表明通胀已经见顶。


The United States announced on Monday7monthISMmanufacturingPMIRecorded52.8Higher than market expectations52； U.S.A6月营建支出月率录得-1.1%, lower than market expectations0.2%。


　　评论称，ISM制造业连续第26个月表现良好。有迹象显示，新订单率有所下降——16%的评论提到了这一点，而6月份的评论为17%——因为专家们越来越担心库存过剩和持续的创纪录的交货时间。尽管新订单率存在不确定性，但就业活动仍保持强劲的积极势头。


　　穆迪分析，预计美联储将在年底前将利率上调至3.50%-3.75%，并在明年3月前将利率上调至4.0%以上；预计美国今年的实际GDP增长率为2.1%Next year1.3%。预计欧洲央行将在即将召开的多次会议中采取强硬的货币政策路线。俄罗斯天然气供应的周期性中断将导致欧元区经济增长急剧减速。


　　美国银行分析称，在经济更显著放缓的情况下，美国10年期国债收益率未来6to12个月内可能达到2%。市场近期焦点离开通胀、转向经济增长基本面恶化，推动10年期国债收益率降至2.63%，符合该行认为的2.35%to2.65%的公允价值区间。该行策略师指出，即使美联储能够引导美国经济实现软着陆，但市场“作最坏准备”的趋势可能会支持10年期国债收益率逼近2%。


　　(France7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value recorded49.5, creating2020year5月以来新低；德国7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value recorded49.3, creating2020year6月以来新低；欧元区7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value recorded49.8, creating2020year6New low since the beginning of the month.


　　分析称，欧元区工业新订单的下降速度已经达到了自2012年债务危机以来最大的水平，不包括疫情封锁的几个月，更糟糕的情况可能还会出现。)


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve9Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is75.5%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is24.5%； reach11Monthly cumulative interest rate increase75The probability of a basis point is58.6%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is35.9%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is5.5%。


Today's Focus:


　　12:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision


　　14:00britain7monthNationwideMonthly rate of housing price index


　　15:00瑞士第三季度消费者信心指数


　　22:00美联储埃文斯主持媒体早餐会


The next day01:00美联储梅斯特出席活动


Technical analysis of gold:


　　黄金日内先居高震荡，如预期回撤1760-57一带，欧盘时段行情也如预期再度回弹，目前翻上1770上方，虽然保持居高，但上涨动作并不连贯，跟进动能也显得不是那么的强，导致这种现象的主要原因有三点：一是因为黄金自身技术性承压，1770-80是前期我们预期的主要波段级别压制区域，也是此前多单的主要目标区域，行情回弹至此，多头动能衰减，加之可预见的空间也缩小了，故多头激进性不再那么高涨；二是美元指数也调整到预期支撑位，如果美指进行技术性超跌反弹，也会加大市场对黄金的看看力度，所以日内黄金进一步上涨动能受到牵制；三是基本面方面，上周美联储利率决定的短线影响已经基本被消化，三个交易日的时间足够了，而短线市场也可能因基本面清淡，导致方向难辨，或将根据本周非农数据来引导，所以周初行情延续一波回弹，后半周可能就会陷入震荡或技术性的承压回修。


　　日线形态反弹不错，但缩小至短周期，可以发现macd明显严重背离，急需回测一波去修正，而下方短期5average1745and10average1730，中轨1737都有不错的短期支撑点，触及都是短多参考位置；若循环五六月份走法，不难推测出，1711Starting point to1810下，会有一个大区间往复震荡过程，时间至少一个月，因此接下来的八月先围绕此大区间内做多看震荡对待；短期还处于空头趋势中，但反弹修正力度已经展开，因而步入震荡很正常；4小时级别当前关注10均线得失，一旦有效失守，则会试探中轨处1750-52一线；对应macd也即将高位形成死叉，短期价格在一定下探需求，甚至跌回1750其下，则很有可能行情提前进入短线变盘。综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期关注1780-1785Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1760-1755Frontline support.


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