Guide Metallographer:7.18美国数据好坏参半，黄金陷入震荡整理

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　上周五晚间，美国劳工部公布最新数据显示，美国6The monthly retail sales rate is1%, higher than the previous value-0.3%和预期的0.8%。该项数据走强，表明消费者情绪得到改善，通胀预期有所下降，且进口物价出现降温迹象。同时，美国公布的6月进口物价指数和6月工业产出月率数据显示，实际值却低于前值和预期值，使美国各项经济指标好坏参半，有积极的，也有消极的，说明美国经济正处于过渡期。尽管6月零售销售月率偏好，但通胀问题始终压制着美国经济，通货膨胀带来的成本上涨始终给企业带来巨大压力。在美联储不断加息的背景下，美国经济始终摆脱不了衰退风险。

　　上周，随着西方交付的远程武器开始在战场上帮助乌克兰，为俄乌局势再添变数。据乌克兰消息称，基辅对俄罗斯后勤和弹药库约30个目标进行了一系列成功打击，市场预测大概率是使用了最近由西方提供的多管火箭系统。乌克兰军方表示，俄罗斯似乎正在重新集结部队，为其准备向斯拉夫扬斯克发起进攻，这是乌克兰在东部地区顿涅茨克占据的一个具有象征意义的重要城市。此前俄罗斯方面称，其部队将在所有作战地区加强军事行动。目前来看，俄乌局势有升温迹象，黄金短线预计有概率获得一定支撑。

Focus on spot gold market today:

United States7monthNAHBReal estate market index;

　　英国央行委员桑德斯发表讲话。

　　指南金师提别提醒：周一市场的基本面非常平淡，几乎没有值得关注的数据和消息公布，所以影响金价的力度应该有限，不过目前市场把焦点放在了下周美联储的加息身上，预计短期之内还是会持续承压。

Technical analysis of gold:

　　黄金从盘面走势来看在周线上连续下跌五周，目前在周线上持续处于偏弱走势中。但是需要注意的是周线目前的乖离率稍微有一些偏大，价格距离前期的联排底部1680一带差的也不算太远，这可能会限制黄金短期在周线走势上的跌势。在日线走势上目前持续维持在低位震荡下行走势上中，K线继续承压短周期均线运行在日线上的下跌可能暂时还没有走完。短线走势在连续横盘震荡之后技术形态有所修复可能会有一定的反弹。但反弹力度有限，美元的强势走势使得目前黄金价格很难走出大的反弹行情。日线上，上一个交易日行情强势下行且收大阴线，显示短期空头较为强势。指标上看，20日均线延续下行，空头趋势有望延续。

From gold4小时图来看，目前形态上暂时止跌，下方支撑则关注1697Defeat1697则将下周将继续朝着1680附近挺进。由于macd一直处于底背弛状态，破前期后也容易马上回升反弹，这也是可以抓低多的原因之一，保持低位震荡弱势不变；黄金小时线级别：隔夜走低，上周五早盘反弹受压382Dividing resistance1716下行一波，欧盘支撑1700一线关口偏弱整理，虽未失守隔夜低点1697，不过价格也未破早盘高点，那么结合前面的弱势结构，目前还处于一定弱势，容易先探底再拉升，继续底部整理；综上所述，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议以反弹高空为主，回调低多为辅，上方短期关注1720-1725Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1697-1692Frontline support.

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