Guide Metallographer:7.15今日黄金走势分析，黑天鹅金价会有大动作吗

　　goldMessage interpretation:

　　金价周四跌破每盎司1700美元，触及11个月来的低点，接近疫情前的水平。

　　道明证券高级大宗商品策略师Daniel Ghali表示：“一场重大的投降事件可能正在黄金市场上演。”“黄金投资者正像多米诺骨牌一样倒下。随着金价挑战疫情前的水平，贵金属出现重大投降事件的风险正在增加。”

　　OANDASenior Market AnalystCraig Erlam表示：“金价感受到了通胀数据的热度和积极收紧政策的回应压力。一旦通胀数据见顶，我们可能会看到其受欢迎程度将有所改善，但其意外上升的趋势将让投资者谨慎。"

　　据分析师说，随着美元指数持续处于20年来的高点、收益率上升和石油抛售，金价下行压力不断加大。

　　荷兰国际集团INGforeign exchangeStrategistFrancesco Pesole说：“围绕欧元兑美元平价(昨天被触及)的波动应该会继续升高，并影响其他美元交叉盘。我们认为，当前对美联储加息预期的重新评估，连同其他因素，可以在现阶段支撑美元，而欧元兑美元更决定性地跌破1.000的风险，可能会让美元全面走强。”

　　Erlam补充称，跌破1700美元仍极有可能，下一个支撑位为每盎司1680美元。“(but)一旦见顶，并看到通胀压力消退的迹象，随着经济滑向衰退，我们可能会重新青睐黄金。”

　　Ghali指出，如果金价跌破疫情前的水平，即每盎司1650 - 1700美元，可能会引发更大规模的抛售。他说：“如果金价低于疫情时期的入门水平，投降的压力正在积聚。在平仓真空中，这些大规模头寸最脆弱，这表明金价仍有进一步下行的倾向。”

　　今日重点关注数据：

　　待定 美国总统拜登出访沙特

　　10:00 中国第二季度GDPthe annual rate

　　17:00 eurozone5Monthly adjusted trade account

　　20:30 Canada5Monthly wholesale sales rate

　　20:30 U.S.A6Monthly retail sales rate

　　20:30 U.S.A6Monthly Import Price Index Monthly Rate

　　20:30 U.S.A7New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the Month

　　21:00 Fed Brad delivers a speech

　　21:15 U.S.A6Monthly industrial output rate

　　22:00 U.S.A5Monthly commercial inventory rate

　　22:00 U.S.A7Initial monthly University of Michigan consumer confidence index

Technical analysis of gold:

　　昨日黄金白盘下跌24个点，美盘反弹拉伸近40个点，过山车行情玩转投资者的心理抗压能力，今日白盘再次修复指标下跌，这就是一个明显的信号，反弹并不是反转，不要认为有止跌的信号出现，只要美元保持强势，反转做空才是主流。技术面上，黄金日线图收K线，布林带下轨从昨日1706Move down to1700附近，布林带以及均线指标空头排列，平稳向下发展，关键MA10均线阻力从昨日的1755Move down to1748一线，很明显的趋势行情，跟着趋势走，顺势做空即可获利。

Gold4小时盘面中布林带区间压缩在1743-1722区域，布林带三轨同步偏向下发展，MA5均线及中轨布林带粘合承压1732frontline,ZigZag抛物线转向指标比较混乱，昨日下跌至1707一线转向指标却没有延续下来，这往往就是大行情的提前预警，配合美元指数强势上涨，今日指南金师更看好破新低的可能出现。附图指标上MACD红色柱减弱，快慢线平稳向下发散，KDJ随机指标三线粘合结死叉，STO指标向下运行，短周期空头持续放量控盘。综合来看，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1723-1728One line of resistance, pay attention below1700-1695Frontline support.

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