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goldInterpretation of message surface;
美联储政策收效甚微
隔夜公布的数据显示，美国通胀继续火热，6月份消费者价格指数同比暴涨9.1%, creating40多年来新高。而且，加拿大央行在同一天先行一步——超预期大幅加息100个基点，创下1998年以来最大单次加息幅度。
三菱日联金融集团的分析师在一份报告中表示：“价格走势反映出，人们越来越担心美联储将推行更积极的措施来应对通胀上行风险，甚至不惜扼杀美国经济复苏生机。”
纽约FWDBONDSchief economist Christopher Rupkey表示：“经济似乎正在进入更高通胀运行机制，6月份炙手可热的通胀报告暗示，美联储行动甚至进一步落后于收益率曲线。”
在新冠大流行初期，受全球供应链混乱和政府大规模财政刺激推动，通胀上行压力抬头并逐渐变得越来越明显。而乌克兰战争爆发且持续至今尚未有结束迹象，导致全球食品和燃料价格飙升，使通胀形势进一步恶化。因此，即使面对愈发鹰派的美联储，黄金价格下行趋势不会一帆风顺。
美联储不会亮明底牌
上周公布的数据显示，美国6月份就业增长强于预期，结合6月通胀报告，表明美联储激进的鹰派货币政策立场迄今为止在冷却需求方面进展甚微。随着租金出现36年来的最大涨幅，反映出美国一系列商品和服务价格普遍大幅走高，通货膨胀可能会变得根深蒂固，让美国人在汽油、食品、医疗保健和房租等领域面临更沉重的支出负担。
人们一直希望，消费者支出从商品转向服务将有助于降低通胀。但非常紧张的劳动力市场正在推高工资，提升服务价格。租金是最大、最具粘性的通胀类别之一，这增加了美联储在下半年继续大幅加息的风险。
但不断上升的借贷成本可能会抑制消费者支出。况且高通胀正在侵蚀工资增长，6月份经通胀调整后的平均周薪下降1.0%。这些使得经济学家预计，美国经济年底将出现温和衰退。
由于经济衰退风险也是全球困境，美联储作出任何“先行”承诺对市场来说都不会太好。在这种背景下，美元可能会保持双赢局面——在受益于鹰派美联储的同时获得部分避险资金的青睐。
Technical analysis of gold:
黄金价格近期的弱势走势已经很明显了，近期的思路也一直是在看空，不管是美元屡创新高的势头还是美联储强烈的加息意愿，都在有力的打击着黄金的价格，而支撑黄金价格上涨的因素目前来看还是太少。日线级别，布林带持续开口向下，价格沿着下轨震荡下行，并且不断走出新的低点，昨晚基本按照预期去试探1700Near the checkpoint, although supported by some buying, prices continued to decline after a slight rebound.4When he was young, Brin took Ping away, and Brin brought him near the track, which is1745Horizontal resistance is formed on the first line, and the price has rebounded multiple times but failed to break through. The short-term trend is still volatile and short, and once the price falls below1700On the front line, the next goal is1680。综合来看，黄金今日操作思路上指南金师建议反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1735-1740One line of resistance, pay attention below1700-1695Frontline support.
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