Guide Metallographer:7.5今日黄金走势分析，黄金弱势修正仍高空

　　goldInterpretation of message surface;


　　加拿大央行表示，近期通胀预期创历史新高。78%的加拿大公司预计未来两年的通胀率将超过3%。第二季度商业前景调查显示，市场对近期通胀的担忧有所加剧，预计通胀将比上一次调查持续更高的时间更长。调查显示，报告劳动力和供应链限制的企业数量达到创纪录水平，约有一半的企业预计供应链挑战将持续到2023年底或更久。许多公司将在明年增加投资和招聘，许多人预计工资和物价将大幅上涨。第二季度消费者调查显示，通胀预期与对食品、汽油和租金成本的担忧同时上升。加拿大人计划在未来12个月大幅增加支出，其中约四分之一的人计划动用部分多余储蓄。消费者调查显示，第二季度消费者对未来一年通胀的预期从2.2%Ascend to6.8%。


　　欧洲央行副行长金多斯表示，近几个月来，我们看到许多商品和服务的通胀压力扩大和加剧。通胀加剧将伴随我们一段时间。高能源成本、贸易条件恶化以及高通胀对可支配收入的不利影响给我们的中期增长前景带来了更大的风险。


　　德国总理朔尔茨表示，目前的价格飙升类似于上世纪70年代的通胀危机。当前的危机不会在几个月内结束。


　　高盛分析，基本预期并非美国经济将陷入衰退。货币政策紧缩可能会继续，可能会出现“技术性”衰退，当实际国内生产总值连续两个季度负增长时，就会出现这种情况。但当考虑固定收益领域的投资前景和机会时，真正重要的是衰退的程度和特征。随着多国央行上调利率以抑制通胀，就业增长料将趋于平稳。这些央行希望让劳动力市场放缓，企业搁置新的招聘计划，但不一定会导致大规模裁员。


According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is7.3%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is92.7%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is6.1%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is79.0%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is14.8%。


Today's Focus:


　　12:30Federal Reserve of Australia Announces Interest Rate Decision


　　14:45France5Monthly industrial output rate


　　15:50France6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　15:55Germany6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:00eurozone6Monthly service industryPMIFinal value


　　16:30britain6Monthly service industryPMI


　　22:00U.S.A5Monthly factory order rate


Technical analysis of gold:


From the perspective of the gold daily structure, the gold first fluctuated and then rebounded within the day, but above1814The first line was blocked, and then the market fluctuated and retreated, while the low point in the European session retreated to1804On the first line, the overall trend is also in line with the expected volatility and digestion trend for the day. At present, the short-term market trend may not be easy to control, and the late US market closure will also make the market trading sentiment cautious, so the overall volatility will not be significant. Stay tuned above the evening gold5Daily line1812-14Short term pressure competition, although there were punctures within the day1812As5The pressure of daily and small cycle trend lines may still become a key point of contention in the evening. According to the daily structure, if we close today5Not too much on the daily line, but above1820Frontline action10The daily pressure and trend line pressure will still have a further suppressive effect, so short-term gold can be biased towards bearish, but do not expect too much space. Technically, the overall rebound is still weak, and the current rebound is only a technical oversold rebound, making it difficult to achieve a reversal.


At present, while both the bullish and bearish directions of the gold market may occur, it is recommended to focus on observing the current market situation and follow the trend direction before participating. The short-term trend structure should be clarified first, and the trend should still be bearish, meaning that bears have the main advantage. When the rebound is blocked and suppressed, the main rhythm direction is still bearish participation, rather than disrupting the rhythm direction due to short-term low rebound. Friday, althoughVType reversal, but never breaking the bearish trend line.4The mid hour orbit will stillKThe physical part of the line is pressed to death, and has not broken through the middle track multiple times, indicating the strong pressure. Breaking through is not a result of Asahi's efforts, and it will inevitably undergo the baptism of time. It is clearly not enough now. Now gold is at a critical watershed position, while4小时中轨压制金价，双重因素引导我一们继续看空黄金。在黄金没有转势的情况下，不要枉然抄底。综上所述指南金师总结：今日黄金操作上建议反弹做空为主，回踩做多为辅，上方短期关注1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1797-1792Frontline support.


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