Guide Metallographer:7.4今日黄金走势分析，金价区间盘整

　　goldMessage interpretation:


Monday(7month4day)亚欧时段，现货黄金震荡微涨，尽管印度上调黄金进口税，美元相对强势，令金价承压，但上周美国一些列经济数据表现较差，ISMmanufacturingPMI录得近两年新低，市场对美国经济谁退的预期持续升温，对美国6月非农就业报告的预期也有所下降，避险买盘和逢低买盘有望给金价提供反弹机会。


　　本交易日美国恰逢独立日假期，预计交投可能受限，留意欧元区7monthSentix投资者信心指数，留意俄乌局势相关消息和市场对本周经济数据的预期变化。黄金的问题是，由于美联储甘于冒经济衰退风险也誓要降低通胀率的鹰派立场，使得黄金所有反弹都遭到了抛售。在经济前景如此不确定的情况下，人们对这种贵金属投资似乎减低了兴趣。本周需要关注的重要事件有：周三，美国将公布ISMService industryPMI数据。当天晚些时候，


　　美联储还将公布6月政策会议记录。根据芝加哥商品交易所集团美联储观察工具的数据，市场目前预计美联储7Monthly interest rate hike again75The probability of a basis point is66.5%，而一周前这一概率为84%。如果美联储会议纪要提升加息75个基点的几率，那么黄金可能会面临额外的看空压力。另一方面，鸽派基调可能令美元承压，并为黄金实现反弹打开大门。最后，美国劳工统计局将于周五发布6月份非农就业数据。预计6月份就业市场将失去增长动力，继5Monthly increase39万人后，6月非农就业人口料将增加25万人。投资者还将密切关注工资通胀数据。按年计算，平均时薪预计将上涨5.2%, and5月份持平。除非非农就业数据出现负面的意外，否则高于预期的薪资增长可能会提振美元，反之亦然。


Technical analysis of gold:


Last week, the overall trend of gold continued to fluctuate and decline unilaterally, and the most crucial thing last week was to break through1802Support. And it's breaking down1802Afterwards, there was an accelerated sell-off trend, and in the end1784There is support here, although there has been a rebound in volatility, the overall structure is still bearish. Even if there is a rebound this week, the overall expectation is to see further7month7The low point will only occur around the th, and there will be a significant rebound in the market afterwards. Therefore, structurally speaking, the overall trend is still mainly bearish, but7month7After the 11th, there may be a retaliatory rebound in the market through non agricultural activities. Also, it's important to focus on1780If we break the position, we will further see a bearish outlook1750And1720Support. And in the future, the overall focus will be on1858的压力突破才是关键核心，不过指南金师后市看跌至1750Nearby, short-term, gold1The morning star form at the bottom of the hour level. Overall, the guidelines for gold operations today suggest that the main focus should be on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by stepping back on low altitudes, with short-term attention from above1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1795Frontline support.


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