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goldMessage interpretation:
2024yearFOMCVoting committee and San Francisco Fed Chairman Daley stated that the Federal Reserve will reach a similar neutral level by the end of the year, and she expects the federal funds rate to2022Will be promoted to3.1%。 Additionally, she supports the Federal Reserve in7Further interest rate hikes in the month75Basis points.
According to the survey, although Biden urged OPEC to increase its oil supply, OPECcrude oilProduction is still declining.6OPEC crude oil production decreased in January1210000 barrels/Day, to286010000 barrels/Day.
Local time7month1The US Department of the Interior released2023to2028Proposed plan for the development of oil and gas on the continental shelf beyond the year. The proposed plan will prevent the future5New offshore oil drilling projects were carried out in the Atlantic and Pacific in, but limited drilling expansion was allowed in the Gulf of Mexico and the southern coast of Arras. At the same time, the proposed plan allowed up to11Lease and sales of petroleum drilling. But the US Department of the Interior stated that the plan is still being developed and the government hopes to seek public opinion.
People familiar with the matter said that preparations for the new sanctions plan against Russia are underway, and some countries will promote the inclusion of more measures in the proposal before submitting it to member states for approval. In addition, insiders said that the EU's Price ceiling measures for oil exports to Russia will not be introduced in the short term, because Europe is dealing with potential energy shortages and price increases, and the focus in the near future is more likely to be to strengthen and expand existing measures. In addition, according to Reuters, local time3On the th, Australia announced a ban on importing Russian gold.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Agriculture stated that,6Ukrainian grain exports decreased year-on-year in the month43.4%to14110000 tons,6Monthly wheat exports decreased year-on-year78.4%, to14.3Ten thousand tons.
According to the International Energy Agency6month30Data released on the day, EU6For the first time, liquefied natural gas imports from the United States exceeded pipeline natural gas imports from Russia in January. Affected by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, in order to counter Western sanctions,6In September, Russia significantly reduced the amount of natural gas transported to Europe through the North Stream pipeline. The Russian side also stated that due to the planned annual maintenance, it will7Suspend natural gas supply to Germany in mid month.
Today's Key Financial Data and Events2022year7month4Day Monday
(The US stock market is closed,CMEandICEEarly termination of some contract transactions under its umbrella)
① Pending InterconnectionETFThe transaction officially begins
②14:00Germany5Monthly and quarterly adjustment of current account
③14:00Germany5Monthly and quarterly trade accounts adjustment
④14:30Switzerland6monthCPIMonthly rate
⑤16:30eurozone7monthSentixInvestor confidence index
⑥17:00eurozone5monthPPIMonthly rate
Technical analysis of gold:
Last week, the overall trend of gold continued to fluctuate and decline unilaterally, and the most crucial thing last week was to break through1802Support. And it's breaking down1802Afterwards, there was an accelerated sell-off trend, and in the end1784There is support here, although there has been a rebound in volatility, the overall structure is still bearish. Even if there is a rebound this week, the overall expectation is to see further7month7The low point will only occur around the th, and there will be a significant rebound in the market afterwards. Therefore, structurally speaking, the overall trend is still mainly bearish, but7month7After the 11th, there may be a retaliatory rebound in the market through non agricultural activities. Also, it's important to focus on1780If we break the position, we will further see a bearish outlook1750And1720Support. And in the future, the overall focus will be on1858Breaking through the pressure is the key core, but I am bearish in the future1750Nearby, short-term, gold1The morning star form at the bottom of the hour level. Overall, the guidelines for gold operations today suggest that the main focus should be on rebounding from high altitudes, supplemented by stepping back on low altitudes, with short-term attention from above1820-1825Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1800-1795Frontline support.
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