Chen Zeqiang:6.25黄金原油周一行情走势分析，黄金涨跌交易操...

Acquaintance is fate, acquaintance is fate. I firmly believe that it is fate to meet for a thousand miles, and it is fate to wipe our shoulders without a share. The journey of investment is long, and temporary gains and losses are only the tip of the iceberg along the way. You should know that a wise man who has a thousand worries will have a loss, and a fool who has a thousand worries will have a gain. No matter how emotional you are, time will not stagnate due to you. Pick up the boredom in your heart and stand up again to pack up and move forward. At this moment, being able to read here indicates that you and I are destined. As long as you are willing to share your gains and losses with me, I will be happy to help you overcome difficulties and become your confidant on the investment journey. The stagnation of your heart makes you sit at the bottom of the well and sigh in the sky. Am I fortunate enough to accompany you as I pass by.

Investment itself has no risk, only out of control investments have risk

　　goldNext week's market analysis:

　　黄金消息面解析：黄金价格周五(6month24day)小幅上涨，但本周势将小幅下跌，而经济衰退忧虑继续打压铜价，其料将录得逾一年来的最大单周跌幅。周五公布的经济数据显示，密歇根大学公布的美国消费者信心最终调查显示，6月份消费者信心指数下降到50，创历史新低。美国人对未来一年整体通胀的预期稳定在5.3%，而对未来五年通胀的预期上升到3.1%。数据公布之后，美元指数短线下跌超30点；现货黄金短线走高超6USD, to1831.70dollar/盎司；现货白银短线走高0.24USD, to21.22dollar/盎司。由于投资者担心美联储激进的货币紧缩政策将导致美国经济放缓，金价本周有望下跌0.7%左右。这一担忧推动美元在本月走高。

Federal Reserve6月会议声明整体偏鹰派，然而无论是最新的决定还是点阵图的调整，已经被市场所预期与计价，而鲍威尔讲话相较于会议声明偏鸽一些，金融市场和商品市场亦受到此影响，美元指数和美债收益率先涨后回落，贵金属先走弱后再度走强，美国股市全线上涨。美联储企图通过货币政策加速收紧抑制通胀，但是影响程度相对于美联储预期而言偏弱。本轮通胀不仅仅是受到需求端的拉动，更是受到了供给端偏紧的影响。美联储超宽松的货币政策和美国联邦政府超宽松的财政政策，使得需求端表现异常强劲，推升通胀水平。

　　黄金技术面分析：黄金日内如预期的偏弱震荡，欧盘时段虽有回弹动作，但如预期在1832一线再度受阻回修，目前行情跌回至1816，整体走势节奏也与预期高度吻合。日线周期收阴构筑看跌吞没形态且处于20日均线压制之下，后市看下行。4小时周期目前酝酿头肩顶形态，目前可看右肩反弹，即行情回落至1816支撑后，会再次上行寻找1844Nearby resistance.

　　根据小时图结构，日内反弹测压后再度回修，也确认了当前行情的弱势状态，1小时周期再次于阻力位1844附近录得黄昏之星形态，后于短线阻力1832附近再次录得圆顶形态，看跌形态叠加，后市整体看下行，行情如期下行至1816附近，目前于阶段性低点1816附近酝酿看涨吞没形态，短线或仍有一次反弹晚间下方先关注1820争夺，但此位随着时间换空间，跌破的概率也就会越大，一旦跌破，则下方可再关注1815-12Competition, even under the influence of extreme emotions, the market may retreat to1805-00The possibility of finding support in the area. Stay tuned above in the evening1832-35Short term pressure band, if the market wants to reverse today, stand up1830The above is a technical requirement, but even if one stands firm1830上方，短线也未必会有强势回升动能，因为目前基本面相对要清淡许多，短期内对于美元走势带来的影响就尤其要关注。综上所述陈泽强总结：黄金下周操作思路上陈泽强建议以反弹高空为主，回踩低多为辅，上方短期关注1835-1840Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1815-1810一线支撑。文章只能给您一个暂时的方向和想法，至于具体的进场点和解τ的时机，请关注陈泽强的实盘将实时给出。

Internationalcrude oilMessage and technical aspects:

　　原油市场资讯：周五（6month24日）亚欧时段，美原油窄幅震荡于近六周低位，目前交投于104.77dollar/桶附近，亚洲股市反弹，美国stock market indexfutures上涨，给油价提供了一些支撑，但OPEC+8月或增产，鲍威尔重申遏制通胀承诺，加剧经济衰退担忧，另外，欧洲部分国家的疫情蔓延，以及航空公司罢工，或减少需求，油价或还存进一步下行空间。不过，OPEC+在达成增产目标上遭遇困难，供给紧张的担忧情绪仍存，还需留意逢低买盘的支撑情况。本交易日重点关注欧美股市表现、美国房地产市场数据、美联储官员讲话、俄乌地缘局势、新冠疫情、市场对下周北约峰会和G7峰会的预期变化。

　　原油技术面解析：美油昨日横盘震荡，欧盘时段略有回升，目前再测106.5附近，但小时图结构上，短线行情依旧处在三角震荡区间内，顶底转换108.6附近的压制作用还是有的，但持续横盘后的行情也存在很大的变数风险。下周美油暂持看承压调整预期，但是期待不宜过大，且务必要防范行情异动的风险，下方重点关注105.8as well as103.6Nearby support testing, if the market falls back105.8下方，则短期内美油还有可能进行空间回修，下方或挑战100整数关口。个人预计目前美油短期不具备超跌反弹条件，下周开盘如果行情站稳108.5Above, then retest it110-111The area is also allowed.

　　个人建议参考：反弹做空为主；WTIWatershed:108.5dollar/bucket

　　策略参考：空单建议原油108.5-108.0分批进场，止损0.4Points, target105.5-103.5nearby.多单建议：原油103.5-105.5分批进场，止损0.4Points, target107.8-108.2nearby.

This article is exclusively authored by analyst Chen Zeqiang. I have always been passionate about the gold and crude oil markets. Due to the delay in online push, the above content is my personal suggestion. Due to the timeliness of online publishing, it is for reference only and at my own risk. Please indicate the source when reprinting