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goldMessage interpretation:
The United States announced on Thursday6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value recorded52.4, lower than market expectations56, previous value is57； U.S.A6monthMarkitService industryPMIInitial value recorded51.6Market expectations are53.5。
Commentary states that the United States6月份经济增长速度大幅放缓，不断恶化的前瞻性指标预示第三季度经济将出现萎缩。调查数据与6月份经济年化增长率不足1%的情况相符，商品生产部门的增长已经在下滑，庞大的服务业增长大幅放缓。许多服务公司在放宽防疫限制措施后，享受到了消费者回归带来的小程度繁荣，但现在却看到家庭越来越难以应对生活成本的上升，非必需品生产商的订单也出现了类似的下降。因此，与前几个月相比，6月份对商品和服务的需求显著下降。由于生活成本上升和需求下降，以及美联储提出的日益激进的利率路径，以及随之而来的整体金融环境恶化，企业对前景的担忧大幅增加。企业信心目前处于通常预示经济衰退的水平，增加了衰退的风险。需求下降的必然结果是价格压力减小，调查中企业成本和销售价格的通胀指标在6月大幅下降表明，尽管价格仍处于高位，但价格压力已经见顶。
美联储主席鲍威尔表示，预计今年将继续加息，随着时间推移将进一步加息，紧缩政策可能导致增长放缓，衰退并非不可避免。对抗通胀的承诺是无条件的，美联储低估了通胀，不会提高通胀目标，失业率存在上升风险，但目前处于历史最低水平，就业市场非常强劲；加息导致房地产市场增长放缓，房地产是货币政策发挥作用的渠道之一。
美联储理事鲍曼表示，支持在7Monthly interest rate increase75个基点，在7月之后进行数次50个基点的加息是合适的。
European Central Bank Regulatory CommissionKazimir表示，欧洲央行可能会在7Monthly interest rate increase25Basis points,9Monthly interest rate increase50个基点。欧洲央行利率可能在一年内达到1.5％-2％。加息(路径)取决于数据。
According toCMEFederal Reserve Observation: The Federal Reserve7Monthly interest rate hike50The probability of a basis point is3.1%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is96.9%； reach9Monthly cumulative interest rate increase50、75The probability of each basis point is0%Accumulated interest rate increase100The probability of a basis point is2.0%Accumulated interest rate increase125The probability of a basis point is63.1%Accumulated interest rate increase150The probability of a basis point is34.9%。
Today's Focus:
14:00 britain5Monthly retail sales rate after quarterly adjustment
16:00 Germany6monthIFOBusiness Prosperity Index
18:15 美联储布拉德出席专家谈话
19:30 美联储布拉德就央行政策和通胀进行讨论
22:00 U.S.A6Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month
22:00 U.S.A5Annualized total monthly sales of new homes
The next day01:00 From the United States to6month24Total number of oil drilling in the current week
The next day03:30 U.S.ACFTC公布周度持仓报告
The next day04:00 IMF讨论美国经济的年度评估
Technical analysis of gold:
今日已经周五了，本周行情依旧扑朔迷离，没有打破低位震荡格局。隔日依旧是反复深V过山车走势，亚欧盘承压1840下行走低至1824位置，随后美盘迎来强势拉升，直接单边上涨至1847高点，整整拉升25美金幅度。刺激的还没结束，随后午夜冲高1847位置又承压回落，行情再次反转跌回1823低点，来了个深V洗盘走势,目前日线处于低位震荡，布林三轨呈现走平运行，多空延续性较差，虽然隔日冲高回落大阴收尾，不过今日可能也不会跌，说不定又是个不跌反涨的行情。当然今天周尾有变盘的可能性，就看亚盘能不能守住1820了，孟连涛觉得若是亚盘不跌那么今日回阳几率就大了。只是本月开始接近尾声，而近期一直说的月线顶部一根冲高回落倒锤子线之后连收两阴，奠定了6月份看空势头，那么本月来看空头基础上压制多头，也就是冲高回落走势。那么今日亚欧盘首先关注1833Pressure, following below1821Support.
Golden Operation Strategy:1835Near empty, stop loss1840, Objective1827-1823
Golden Operation Strategy:1820Nearby, stop loss1815, Objective1832-1836
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