Guide Metallographer:6.14今日黄金走势分析，美联储加息预期黄金暴跌

　　goldMessage interpretation:

Tuesday(6month14day)，国际金价在刷新5month18日以来低位至1809.16dollar/盎司后反弹转升，美元上行脚步暂停缓解了金市卖压。但由于市场对美联储积极收紧货币政策的押注不断增加，金价涨幅受到限制。几乎可以肯定的是，美联储鹰派姿态只会比3月份更强硬。

　　根据市场调查显示，因上周美国CPI意外再创1981year12月以来新高，市场预计美联储6Monthly interest rate increase at least50The probability of a basis point is100%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is28.2%，7Monthly interest rate increase at least50The probability of a basis point is100%Interest rate hike75The probability of a basis point is43.4%。部分机构表示不排除加息100个基点，理由是无论是通胀还是美国经济，都没有发出足够明确的放缓信号，来阻止美联储在接下来的几次会议上加息50个基点或更多，受此影响，隔夜全球所有风险资金大跌。

　　美元指数隔夜录得2002year12月中旬以来新高至105.29，导致以美元计价的黄金重挫近3%，尽管黄金有望继续保持作为通胀对冲工具的地位。

　　美联储本周可能加息75个基点的押注令美元人气受到支撑。利率上升将引发美国经济陷入衰退的担忧加剧也导致全球股市暴跌。而在周三(6month15day)美联储公布利率决议之前，非孳息资产黄金不太可能大量吸引买盘。

　　美联储官员周三将阐述如何在未来几个月内实现在不让经济陷入混乱的情况下为经济降温。但实现这一目标日益艰巨，美国经济正保受持续高通胀和疲软增长前景的困扰。

　　几乎可以肯定的是，美联储鹰派姿态只会比3月份更强硬。这次会议是在美联储主席鲍威尔和美国总统拜登在白宫会面两周后举行的，当时白宫越来越担心，从房租、食品到汽油、机票等各种成本飙升，冲淡了就业前景(失业率目前为3.6%)诱人带来的积极作用。

　　前美联储经济学家兼Macro Policy PerspectivesCEOJulia Coronado表示：“就信息传递而言，这将是一场棘手的会议，前景不乐观，他们没有任何选择是容易做出的。”

　　道明证券(TD Securities)的策略师们表示，技术性崩溃可能是促使金价大幅下跌的催化剂，黄金与实际利率之间不断扩大的估值差距加剧了市场对黄金价格的重估。“走势仍偏向下行……我们估计跌破1810美元将引发系统性趋势跟踪者大规模抛售。”

Technical analysis of gold:

Yesterday's bearish candlestick for gold fell and closed lower, taking back all the upward momentum from last Friday and setting a new low1809.36dollar|ounce. The roller coaster style of large amplitude sawing intensifies the frequency of short-term dish washing, with weak unilateral continuity and repeated twists and turns. As the daily trend declines, the short-term trend returns to operating within the weak range. The daily line falls directly from the upper track of Bollinger Road to the lower track, with Yin swallowing YangKLine structure, however, the Asian market still has some support at the lower track. Pay attention to whether the European market can weaken again after the rebound correction of the Asian market.4The hour chart has broken through the lower track under pressure from the upper track of the recent oscillation range. Yesterday, it was also emphasized that the European market will not break through at the upper track. In the short term, it is important to guard against a roller coaster style decline, while the weak turn in the European market has continued downward until the US market, laying the foundation for yesterday's weakness,4The hour's continuous Yin style retreat,KThe line shape is slightly downward, and the moving average indicator is still scattered and disorderly before the interest rate decision. It is expected that the short-term trend will still be dominated by oscillations, with oscillations leading and trends following. The position of the point is more crucial than the direction. Considering the support of the daily lower track, the white market is not in a hurry to chase the short position. It will wait for the US market to rebound and correct before choosing an opportunity to operate. Overall, today's gold trading strategy is guided by the guidance of gold analysts, who suggest mainly short selling through rebound, supplemented by long selling through retracement, and short-term attention from above1840-1845Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1820-1815Frontline support.

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