王德诚：铁矿石成为“疯狂的石头”后市行情怎么走？

   

    The most important point I have always emphasized in investment and financial management is rationality. What is rationality? The first point of rationality is not to invest too much money in playing this thing. The author suggests not to invest more than your family's annual income50%，绝对不要把全部或者大部分资金拿来玩这东西，特别是女同志。理性的第二点就是一定要认识到投资的风险性，投资有风险，二八定律永远存在，不要听一些业务员瞎忽悠怎么怎么好赚钱，做foreign exchangeperhapsfutures跟做股票一样，永远都是七成人亏损一层人保本两层人盈利，你要充分认识到这行没那么好赚钱，不要指望靠他去发财致富。你如果选择做投资，就一定要放平心态去把他当作一种娱乐消遣去对待，一定不要让投资理财影响你的正常的家庭运转。要是盈利了那就恭喜你，要是亏损了也不影响正常生活。

   Iron ore2105：

　　铁矿石：近期对于卷螺矿的关系可以总结为“卷板不涨我不多，铁矿不跌我不空”，铁矿起到中枢传导的作用。

　　逻辑梳理：上周，铁矿石回落企稳，05Contract received1052。现货方面，截至12month25日，唐山地区66%酸粉湿基不含税主流市场价格为915元，较上周涨40Yuan.66%酸粉干基含税主流市场价格为1145-1155元，较上周涨50元。青岛港61.5%澳粉主流报价为1120元左右，较上周涨60元；超特粉市场报格为945元左右，较上周涨55元。天津港61.5%PB粉报价为1135元左右，较上周涨60Yuan;62%PB块报价为1290元左右，较上周涨110Yuan.

　　关于本周行情观点做简要的概述：铁矿石预计走势跟随成材，近期对于卷螺矿的关系可以总结为“卷板不涨我不多，铁矿不跌我不空”，铁矿起到中枢传导的作用，虽然上涨速度将减缓，但回踩11Daily high point1140后有望企稳回升，当前存在安全边际较好的做多机会。保持看多铁矿的原因主要是宏观、产业及基差三方面。

　　首先宏观方面除了国内政策支撑外，最重要的还是美元贬值对铁矿石价格的支撑。但是这一点再次需要纠正一下，很多时候都泛泛地说美元贬值将利多大宗商品，但其中逻辑是，美元贬值引起商品价格上涨的条件仅限于：1.该商品进口自相对于美元货币升值的国家；2.该商品出售给美国或者美元兑其货币的贬值幅度小于出口国。

　　事实上国际贸易也不可能严格按照上述两个条件进行，各国汇率更不可能在方向和幅度上都完全一致，升值贬值是一个相对的概念。即使单纯考虑美国市场，也不能得出美元与大宗商品负相关的结论，因为美国也有出口的商品。因此，美元指数的上涨下跌表现的是汇率问题，各国汇率的波动对商品价格的影响应该是在幅度而不是方向上。这也仅限于全球市场联动性比较好的商品，对于一些定价权不明显，资源流动能力差的商品，以美元指数的涨跌来解释其波动，更是不靠谱。

　　其次，海外钢厂复产进度略超预期，将分流部分铁矿石资源供应，同时国内维持强劲的需求。供应方面，外矿的产业整体还是偏紧的，巴西方面，淡水河谷对2021年目标产量的下调；澳洲方面在2021年整体产量增幅有限。进入2021年后全球需求的边际改善带来了市场对于铁矿石紧平衡进一步加剧的担忧。短期，钢厂开工继续维持高位，日均铁水产量同比仍高与往期。但钢厂依然采取了低库存的策略，也可以看出，目前钢厂对于矿价依然“恐高”。

　　回到盘面，经过了四季度大幅度上涨之后，铁矿的基差有所收敛，但仍然维持较高水平，依托高基差做多依然具有比较高的安全边际。

　　操作建议：铁矿石05合约趋势上涨，阶段性回踩10Daily moving average1030后有望企稳回升，保持以多头思路为主，关注1040附近支撑，近期提示多单可继续持有，关注1070Nearby pressure.

　　风险因素：成材需求走弱(Bearish)、大量做空资金砸盘跌破11Daily high support(Bearish)

　　最新资讯：本周全国45个港口：进口铁矿库存为12408.68万吨，较上周增4.23万吨；日均疏港量303.96万吨，增6.8Ten thousand tons.

     Written at the end of the article: Friends who work in futures know that futures are traded on a time share basis, at night11The market will stop at midnight, and traders don't have to stay up late to watch the market. That's really tiring. For doinggoldcrude oilAs a trader, the author has always emphasized a state of investment: strict light position operation, strict stop loss, strict reduction of operation, not investing too much funds in trading, treating trading as a pastime. It doesn't matter if you lose or win every day, and it doesn't affect the normal operation of your family. In this way, even with the wind and waves blowing, you can still be better than idle walking, and there is no need to stay up late to read and analyze the market. Once the market fluctuates greatly, you will be jumpy, Don't ruin your health by not making a profit on your account.

   

    Refuse the temptation of high profits and persist in rational investment. Investment and financial management are high-risk things, not as easy to make money, and maintaining rationality is the most important. Respect laws and regulations, avoid financial traps, and stay away from "high yield" scams. Investors must learn more relevant knowledge to distinguish between real and fake platforms, and learn the most basic knowledge of investment. Author Wang Decheng Futures Qualification Qualification NumberT329796Qualification certificate number of financial planner:CICFPAGC1161851Contact WeChat Sync on your phone:15851503763。