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Jiashu Watching the Market

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10.23Late comments: the recent market cycle extension shows a problem!

already existing 665 Secondary Reading2020-10-23 18:09 |Personal classification:gold

Without risk, we can't call it a career, but it's important to know where there are risks, and leave a way for ourselves.


Today is10.23No., I am Jiashu. Today is Friday, the last trading day of the week. I wanted to relax and have a perfect ending, but the weather didn't meet my expectations. This jerk market is not going to make me better, and expectations have been extended repeatedly15Minutes extend to half an hour, from half an hour to1Hour, it's not that my expectations were wrong, but rather that the pattern has repeatedly extended, making people angry. So why is this happening in the market these two days15The pattern that can appear at the minute level has been repeatedly extended, demonstrating the resilience of the market. Maybe I'm saying that many people don't understand, and it's normal not to. Everyone uses different trading systems and their thinking styles are also vastly different, so many people can only look at the results. If the results are right, it means you're good, but if the results are wrong, you're just a weak chicken. This is also a necessity, and I can understand!


The periodic extension of form isMACDA special case in periodic theory is that the expected top bottom deviation of the golden or dead fork is originally15It occurs at the minute level, but the market progress is relatively slow, resulting inMACDThe fast and slow lines have crossed0Axis, then we can only go and see30Minutes, becauseMACDThe cycle theory requires that the available form must be in the0On one side of the axis, it cannot be crossed0Axis, so we can only zoom in on the period to see. The direct cause of this situation is the slow operation of the market, which is reflected in the market sentiment that the two sides failed to reach an agreement. Usually, this situation occurs in volatile markets, andMACDThis is precisely the market situation where cycle theory is not applicable!




[font=inherit]gold[/font]


[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106585]

The golden half hour chart is also shown in the early review. The chart shows the expectations given in the early review, but the current trend of the market is much worse than our expectations,MACDThe fast and slow lines are about to be put on now0Axis, if threaded up0Axis, then we can only look at the hour level, which is the extension of the form's cycle. In fact, I wrote about this situation in the early review, which is the second possibility. Although we can't say it yetMACDThe dead end of the fast and slow lines is completely impossible, but it has reached a very dangerous point. This is the problem that has troubled me recently. Although the extension of the form's cycle will not have a significant impact on the entry, this waiting is really tiring, and it was originally usedMACDThe cycle theory of trading requires full patience, and coupled with this form of extension, it's really killing me! Just pouring bitterness on everyone, trading is difficult, not only for you, but also for me. My entry is not determined by flipping a coin, but also by the market trend and technical indicators that meet the requirements of my trading system before I can enter.


After pouring out the bitterness, let's continue to follow the current trend of gold. Gold remains unchanged and continues to be bearish, and I am still optimistic about it for half an hourMACDThe fast and slow lines can be found on the0Dead cross below the axis, if the fast and slow lines really go through0Axis, then we can only look at the hour line. The current suppression above gold is still a downward trend line at the daily level, and the suppression is1914Frontline, the distance from suppression is also very close now, but I still do not recommend everyone to do too much bit order, because daily operations are mostly short-term, and stop losses are relatively small. In the short-term marketKLine and shadow lines are very common, and it's easy to sweep away your stop loss and then run in the direction of your order. Therefore, achieving a single position is very dangerous. I suggest that everyone pay more attention to the form. Once the form is established, it doesn't matter if there is a slight difference in position. When you do it, you will always follow the trend and take it with confidence!



[font=inherit]crude oil[/font]


[font=inherit]Technical aspect:[/font]
[attachment=106586]

The situation with crude oil is also the same, and the expectation given in the early review is that crude oil will15Step out at the minute level40.9The new high above creates a bearish top deviation pattern, which then drives the market back down. I also mentioned that it may extend to the half hour level, but currently we see that the fast and slow lines at the half hour level have also come down0Below the axis, which means that the top deviation form has been destroyed, we can only search for the entry form again.


At present, half an hourMACDBoth the fast and slow lines have come down0Below the axis, but then in the0If there is a golden cross near the axis, there will be two situations in the future market. Firstly, if there is an non-standard top deviation pattern, the high point will still be41Above, or out of aRSIIt is also possible for the top to deviate. Secondly,MACDGo straight up to the fast and slow lines0Above the axis and breaking through the dead fork position, creating a new situation requires us to consider in the long run! It is expected that there will be no operational opportunities tonight. If there are any, I will inform you in a timely manner. If there are no, then take a break. This week's harvest is still good!



I won't talk about silver alone anymore, after all, it's too similar to the trend of gold. I'm a person who likes the new and dislikes the old. I get tired of watching gold all day, and there's no novelty in another one that's similar to gold!



The trend of silver is highly similar to that of gold, and it extends from a half hour level to the hour line. Currently, the hour line levelMACDThe fast and slow lines are on0The adhesion below the shaft is quite severe, and24.8Strong pressure above, expected to make it difficult to cross the hourly speed line0Axis, but in the0Below the axis, there will be another dead cross. After the dead cross, silver will still have a significant decline. The hour level fast slow line will directly fall through the previous gold cross and return to its original form. If it doesn't fall, it will be a stunning drop!


This article is exclusively written by Jiashu. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market. It is recommended for reference only!
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